Blue Jays Banished from Toronto; Should Bettors Hammer Under on 2020 Win Total?

• The Toronto Blue Jays still don’t have a home for the 2020 season
• The government of Canada kicked them out of Toronto because it doesn’t want American players traveling to Canada
• How should bettors approach the Blue Jays knowing that they won’t have the home-field advantage afforded by the Rogers Centre?

Briefly on Wednesday morning, it appeared the Toronto Blue Jays had found a new home at PNC Park in Pittsburgh. However, just as the Canadian government denied the team permission to play its home games in Toronto, the Pennsylvania government has denied them permission to play in the Steel City.

Knowing that the Jays have lost home-field advantage, should bettors hammer the under on the team’s regular-season win total? Let’s take a closer look.

2020 Toronto Blue Jays Odds

Odds taken July 22nd.

Jays Moving Not Moving to Pittsburgh

The Blue Jays came to an agreement with the Pittsburgh Pirates to share PNC Park for the 60-game 2020 baseball season. But that agreement was short-lived when, as mentioned, the state government of Pennsylvania shut it down. The current COVID-19 pandemic is still spiking in areas of the United States (and now in Canada too, to a smaller degree), and there is concern of spread.

BREAKING: The @BlueJays won't be allowed to play at PNC Park, after a ruling from the Pennsylvania Department of Public Health.https://t.co/8zKqivrmwQ

— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) July 22, 2020

The likely choices now are Dunedin, Florida (home of the team’s spring-training facility) and Buffalo, New York.

What Impact Will This Have On The Jays?

The 2020 season was always going to be a wacky one. The season is just 60 games long, the COVID-19 pandemic will still play a part, and now the Jays will have to play in a foreign stadium. The good news is that the Jays weren’t that good of a home team last season, going just 35-46 compared to 32-49 on the road, so maybe this isn’t a big factor.

Their 35-46 home record was one of the worst in all of baseball. Only four teams in the entire league finished with fewer wins at home. This is a team that’s offense-oriented and their splits weren’t that different last year. They had a .300 on-base percentage and .697 OPS on the road compared to .317 and .745 on at home.

Time to lean all the way in on the Pittsburgh Blue Jays @UniWatch pic.twitter.com/MS6DKEbr3b

— Gabriel Hurl (@gabehurl) July 22, 2020

The biggest difference for the Jays’ home games will likely come in the home run department; Rogers Centre led the league (1.317 home runs per game). Wherever Toronto ends up, it’s not likely to be as home-run friendly as their previous confines.

That won’t be a big deal for Toronto’s win-loss record, though. Even though they played half their games in the most home-run friendly park last year, they barely cracked the top ten in total HRs (247, 9th overall). Opponents were benefiting more from the sardine-can nature of Rogers Centre.

What’s The Best Bet?

At the end of the day, I don’t see this as being a huge factor to the point where I’d change my mind on this team. If you liked the over or under before, you should still stick with it.

The overall park factor difference between Rogers Centre and PNC Park isn't too big. Rogers Centre is an even 100, while PNC is 98. Slightly better for pitchers.

— Devan Fink (@DevanFink) July 22, 2020

The Jays have had a losing record at home the last couple of seasons and were just 42-39 at home in 2017. It doesn’t seem like playing at home has been a considerable edge for them. Personally, my lean for their 2020 MLB win totals is over because I’m bullish on a lot of the underdog teams in a shortened season.

Overall, I don’t think this move should change your opinion.