1st-Place Atlanta Calls Up Bautista: 2018 Projections for Joey Bats & the Braves

• Exceeding expectations, the first-place Braves are taking a chance on Jose Bautista.
• Will Bautista add more pop to an already powerful lineup?
• Or will “Joey Bats” be an unwanted addition to an Atlanta team that’s currently rolling?

The 2018 forecast for the Atlanta Braves was not overly sunny. Residing in a division with the Nationals and Mets, who own two of the deepest starting rotations in baseball, plus the improving Phillies, who spent big in free agency, Atlanta was pegged to finish fourth and win just 75 games by fivethirtyeight.com.

But six weeks into the season, they sit first in the NL East at 19-11; they own the second-best run differential in baseball (+57, just one behind Houston); and they’ve scored the most runs in the National League (172). Their 14-7 divisional record, in particular, has put the rest of the East on notice.

Now, their young but deep lineup may be getting another boost in the form of veteran slugger Jose Bautista.

Unsigned through the entire offseason, “Joey Bats” was inked to a minor league deal by Atlanta in mid April.

His 2017 season was one of significant regression (.203 BA, .674 OPS), and after 2015’s bat-flip heard round the world …

… Bautista became better known for getting smacked in the face than smacking dingers.

Yet, he’s just two years removed from a 110-RBI, 40-home run season, and he showed promise in his recent Triple-A stint, going 6-15 with a homer in his last five games, per ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick.

Will his addition put the Braves over the top and make them a true World Series contender, or will Bautista be a bust in Atlanta and merely take playing time away from current third-baseman Ryan Flaherty, who’s putting up career-best numbers (.310 BA, .843 OPS)?

Jose Bautista’s 2018 Projections

*Hilariously, the Braves’ last bench-clearing incident came last year against the Blue Jays, precipitated by another Bautista bat-flip. Something tells me a guy like Marcus Stroman wouldn’t take kindly to being shown up by his old teammate. Circle June 19th on your calendar, when Atlanta heads north of the border.

In nine full seasons with the Blue Jays, Bautista batted .253 with an .881 OPS and averaged 32 home runs per year. Given the likelihood that seven-year vet Flaherty regresses closer to his career production (.222 BA, .654 OPS), this is a worthwhile gamble by the Braves, especially since Bautista adds a right-handed bat to their left-heavy lineup.

Still, don’t expect anything remotely close to prime-of-career production from Bautista.

[Bautista] got to feast on some less-than-stellar AL East pitching in his prime. Now he’s in a division with Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Noah Syndergaard [etc.]

He got to feast on some less-than-stellar AL East pitching in his prime. Now he’s in a division with Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Noah Syndergaard, Jacob DeGrom, Jake Arrieta, Aaron Nola … the list goes on. It’s a tough spot for an older player who hasn’t faced major-league pitching in almost eight months.

But even when Bautista’s potency at the plate took a pronounced plunge in 2016 and 2017, his walk numbers stayed high (171 BB in 1,203 plate appearances in 2016 and ’17). Expect him to bring the same patient approach to Atlanta and for a respectable on-base percentage to keep him in the lineup, in particular against lefties.

What do these somewhat pessimistic projections for Bautista mean for the Braves, as a team?

Atlanta Braves’ 2018 Projections

Predicting a mediocre performance from Bautista doesn’t portend doom for the Braves. Neither does a regression from Ryan Flaherty.

The meat of this order is the real deal. Despite being the two youngest players in baseball, Ozzie Albies (.324 BA, .938 OPS, 10 HR) and Ronald Acuna (.382 BA, 1.138 OPS) have shown enough early in their budding careers to convince me that their success will last all year.

Meanwhile, Freddie Freeman, arguably the most underrated player in the majors, continues to do nothing but produce (.322 BA, .984 OPS, 22 RBI), while 2015 first-overall pick Dansby Swanson is finally starting to live up to his potential (.289 BA, .766 OPS, 13 RBI)

Oh, and they also have Nick Markakis (.336 BA, .958 OPS, 23 RBI), who is quietly on pace to challenge the 3,000-hit plateau when it’s all said and done.

The fun thing with Markakis is that he has an actual chance at 3000 hits, which would result in the most awkward “welp, guess we have to do this” HOF induction ever.

No, seriously. He’s at 2089 hits at 34 & averages 171/year. If he continues that trend, he reaches 3000 by age 40 https://t.co/XI7LDFSBER

— Ben Diamond (@_BenDiamond) May 3, 2018

That still leave the issue of pitching, and whether the Braves’ unassuming rotation can keep up its sublime start. Their top-four starters (Julio Teheran, Sean Newcomb, Mike Foltynewicz, and Brandon McCarthy) all have ERAs between 2.53 and 3.65. But everyone except Teheran is beating their career ERA, and everyone except McCarthy is outperforming their career WHIP.

In addition, the bullpen has a 3.78 ERA, 13th in the MLB, despite featuring mostly the same arms from 2017, when it was one of the more generous units in the league with a 4.58 ERA (26th).

That said, Atlanta’s pitching staff, as a whole, has numerous young, still-developing arms, and the franchise certainly has a history of producing elite pitching in-house. So don’t automatically write-off the improvements as stats that will trend back to the mean. And it’s not like the pitching has to be lights-out for this team to keep winning games, not with the lineup apt to average around five runs per game.

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