Braves vs Dodgers Game 5 Odds, Predictions, and Picks
- The Dodgers are -136 home favorites over the Braves in NLCS Game 5 on Thursday night
- Max Fried (14-7, 3.04) will start for the Braves and Corey Knebel (4-0, 2.45) will open for the Dodgers
- The matchup and odds can be found below with a prediction
The visiting Atlanta Braves will try to close out the National League Championship Series when they play the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 5 at 8:08 pm ET, Thursday, at Dodger Stadium.
The Braves moved to the brink of winning the pennant on Wednesday night when they rolled to a 9-2 victory in Game 4. That gives Atlanta a 3-1 lead in the best-of-seven series.
The Braves (94-75, 48-37 road) won for the sixth time in their last seven games. The Dodgers (111-61, 61-25 home) are 4-5 since an eight-game winning streak.
Braves vs Dodgers Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves | +116 | OFF | OFF |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | -136 | OFF | OFF |
Odds as of October 21st at FanDuel.
Probable Pitchers
Max Fried (14-7, 3.04) will pitch for the Braves while Corey Knebel (4-0, 2.45) is expected to be the opener in a bullpen game for the Dodgers.
The Braves called on Fried in Game 1 of this series and he went six innings without getting a decision. He allowed two runs, scattered eight hits, struck out five and walked none.
Fried vs Knebel
| 14-7 | Record | 4-0 |
| 3.04 | ERA | 2.45 |
| 3.49 | xERA | 2.96 |
| 1.08 | WHIP | 0.97 |
| 3.85 | SO/W | 3.33 |
Fried is 8-0 with a 1.47 ERA in his last 13 starts and hasn’t lost since July 28 against the Mets in New York. He has also reeled off 14 consecutive quality starts.
Max Fried, 95mph Paint. 🖌️🎨 pic.twitter.com/7gTt26mxoa
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) October 17, 2021
Overall, Fried has 21 QS in 30 outings this season and the Braves are 20-10 when he pitches. Fried is 8-4 with a 2.93 ERA in 15 road starts and has a 9-6 record at night and a 2.89 ERA in 20 starts.
Fried will be making his fourth start of the year against the Dodgers and is 1-0 with a 2.50 ERA. However, he has a 1-3 career record against them with a 3.68 ERA in 12 games (eight starts).
The Los Angeles-area native is 0-1 with a 6.23 ERA in four games (two starts) at Dodger Stadium. In 14 postseason games, including six starts, Fried is 1-1 with a 3.21 ERA.
Knebel last pitched in relief in Game 3 on Tuesday and allowed one run in 0.1 innings. He has opened six times this year, including twice in the postseason, and has pitched two innings once and one inning five times.
Knebel has pitched well at home this season with a 3-0 record and 1.54 ERA in 13 games. He is 4-0 at night with a 3.32 ERA in 23 games.
Corey Knebel, Wicked 81mph Knuckle Curve. 🤢 pic.twitter.com/jwhsflabXt
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) October 15, 2021
Against the Braves, Knebel has decisions in 12 career games and a 4.09 ERA. He has a 9.00 ERA against them in 2021 in three games.
Knebel has a fine track record in the postseason with a 1-0 record and 1.98 ERA in 14 games.
Dodgers Lose Turner
Dodgers third baseman Justin Turner will not play again in the postseason after straining his left hamstring in Game 4. When Justin Turner was out of the lineup in Game 3 because of a neck soreness, Chris Taylor started at the hot corner.
Batting Averages vs Starting Pitchers
| Braves Batters | Batting Average vs Knebel | Dodgers Batters | Batting Average vs Fried |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dansby Swanson | 1.000 | Austin Barnes | .500 |
| Ozzie Albies | .500 | Justin Turner | .421 |
| Freddie Freeman | .333 | Trea Turner | .375 |
| Adam Duvall | .200 | Cody Bellinger | .286 |
| Eddie Rosario | .200 | AJ Pollock | .267 |
| Joc Pederson | .000 | Will Smith | .214 |
| Ehire Adrianza | .000 | Corey Seager | .200 |
| Austin Riley | .000 | Chris Taylor | .182 |
| Johan Camargo | .000 | Albert Pujols | .167 |
| Mookie Betts | .133 | ||
| Gavin Lux | .000 | ||
| Steven Souza Jr. | .000 |
Turner has had success against Fried, going 8 for 19 with one double and two home runs. In 151 games during the regular season, Turner batted .278/.361/.471 with 27 home runs.
Second baseman Trea Turner has gone 9 for 24 with a double and a homer against Fried. Perhaps Trea Turner should steal the nickname “Dr. Smooth” from Houston Astros left fielder Michael Brantley.
Trea Turner did another Trea Turner slide #Dodgers pic.twitter.com/ydp9jU2HhP
— Jon Weisman (@jonweisman) September 22, 2021
Fried has been tough on right fielder Mookie Betts, holding him to two hits in 15 at-bats.
Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman is 2 for 6 off Knebel with a double and homer. Right fielder Joc Pederson, though, is 0 for 5.
Braves vs Dodgers Pick
The Braves ended their ten-game losing streak at Dodger Stadium in Game 4 and also improved to 5-5 against the Dodgers overall this year. Los Angeles still holds a 30-17 advantage over Atlanta since the start of the 2017 season.
Eddie Rosario led the way for the Braves in Game 4 as he had two home runs among his four hits. It was the left fielder’s second four-hit game of the series.
Smothered and covered 😋@EddieRosario09 | #BattleATL pic.twitter.com/P60kxQzLf3
— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) October 21, 2021
The Dodgers have been here before, rallying from a 3-1 deficit against the Braves to win last year’s NLCS. However, the feeling is different this time as the Dodgers are beat up and Fried has been dominant for almost three months.
Look for the Braves to close the series out in five.
The Pick: Braves moneyline (+116)
John Perrotto has been covering and writing about sports for various outlets for over 40 years. His work has appeared in the likes of USA TODAY, ESPN.com, SI.com, Forbes.com, The Associated Press, Baseball Digest, and more. John is based out of Beaver Falls, PA.
