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Braves vs Phillies Picks & Odds – Aug 10

Aaron Nola accepting congratulations
Coming off a Sunday doubleader loss to the Atlanta Braves, the Philadelphia Pihllies are -159 favorites to beat Atlanta Monday with ace Aaron Nola on the mound. Photo by @ricksoisson (Twitter.com).
  • The Philadelphia Phillies are -159 favorites to beat the Atlanta Braves in a Monday 6 pm ET start
  • Philly ace Aaron Nola takes the mound. Can he stop the bleeding from a Sunday doubleheader loss?
  • See the odds and predictions for the outcome 

It’s beginning to look a lot like deja vu all over again for both the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies.

With an 11-6 slate, the Braves appear to be shifting into gear a drive toward their third successive NL East Division title. Meanwhile, the 4-6 Phillies are scuffling. Their rotation is in shambles. Their hitters aren’t clutch.

At least they have Aaron Nola. The ace of their pitching staff, Nola has won a minimum of 12 games in each of the past three seasons.

He takes the mound Monday (6 p.m. EST), as Philadelphia seeks to rebound after dropping both ends of a Sunday twinbill to Atlanta. Bookmakers have established Philadelphia as -159 favorites in the Phillies vs Braves odds.

Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies August 10 Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total Odds at DraftKings
Atlanta Braves +138 +1.5 (-150) O 9.0 (+100)
Philadelphia Phillies -159 -1.5 (+125) U 9.0 (-121)

Odds taken Aug. 10

Sean Newcomb, 0-1 with a 6.57 earned-run average, goes to the bump for Atlanta, the +138 underdog. The Braves and Phillies are 5-5 in their last 10 meetings.

Bats Abandon Phillies

Philadelphia scored just two runs while dropping a pair to the Braves on Sunday. Atlanta took the opener 5-2 and crushed the Phillies 8-0 in the nightcap.

Stranding runners is becoming a fanatical pursuit for Philly. Sunday, they went 0-for-9 with runners in scoring position through the two games. In 10 games this season, they’re 14-for-72 (.194) with RISP.

Manufacturing runs isn’t something that the Phillies export to the diamond. To date this season, 22 of Philadelphia’s 42 runs (52.4%) have been scored via the home run.

Nola Is Mr. Reliable

Don’t be fooled by the 0-1 record and 3.97 ERA next to Nola’s name. He’s been on this season.

In his last start, a 3-1 loss to the powerful New York Yankees, Nola struck out a career-high 12 batters. He had overpowering stuff, generating 19 swings and misses and 18 called strikes against Yankees hitters.

Braves Career Stats vs Nola

Player AB HR RBI AVG
Ronald Acuna 20 2 4 .350
Johan Camargo 6 1 1 .333
Charlie Culberson 4 0 0 .000
Adam Duvall 18 1 2 .333
Tyler Flowers 9 0 0 .222
Freddie Freeman 42 1 9 .238
Adeiny Hechavarria 8 0 0 .375
Ender Inciarte 35 1 3 .200
Nick Markakis 35 2 5 .286
Marcell Ozuna 25 2 6 .280
Austin Riley 8 2 2 .250
Dansby Swanson 20 0 0 .200
Travis d’Arnaud 5 0 0 .200

Nola finished third in 2018 NL Cy Young Award voting. In 18 career starts against the Braves, he’s 10-5 with a 2.94 ERA.

In two starts this season for Nola, the total has gone under 9.0 each time. The average total in his two appearances is 5.5 runs, making that under 9.0 at odds of -121 look like a very appealing play.

Newcomb’s New World

Newcomb is transitioning from the bullpen back to the rotation this season. In 2019, he made just four starts. He’ll equal that total when he takes the hill on Monday.

In 2018, though, he was part of the Atlanta starting rotation. Newcomb went 12-9 with a 3.90 ERA in 31 games (30 starts). He allowed just 137 hits in 164 innings and walked only 81 while 160 striking out 160.

Phillies Career Stats vs Newcomb

Player AB HR RBI AVG
Jay Bruce 8 0 0 .125
Kyle Garlick 0 0 0 .000
Phil Gosselin 0 0 0 .000
Didi Gregorius 2 0 0 .000
Bryce Harper 9 2 5 .333
Adam Haseley 1 0 0 .000
Rhys Hoskins 4 1 2 .250
Scott Kingery 4 0 0 .250
Andrew Knapp 0 0 0 .000
Andrew McCutchen 0 0 0 .000
Roman Quinn 1 0 0 .000
JT Realmuto 21 0 0 .095
Jean Segura 3 0 0 .000
Neil Walker 1 0 0 .000

He’s struggled with his command so far in 2020, allowing nine runs on 14 hits through 12.1 innings. Newcomb has issued four walks and fanned nine.

Although he’s yet to go five innings in any start this season, Newcomb showed improvement in his last outing, He went 4.2 innings in a 2-1 loss to the Toronto Blue Jays. He threw 92 pitches and induced just seven swinging strikes, a sure sign that he isn’t fooling the hitters.

With Mike Soroka (Achilles) and Cole Hamels (triceps) out, the Braves have little choice but to send Newcomb to the mound every five days, though.

Take A Phillies Flyer

Nola is exactly the elixir the Phillies need to gain a split in this four-game series. He’s struck out 19 and walked only one in 11.1 innings of work this season.

Nola shows a .251 BABIP and an 82.5% strand rate. However, the Phillies have lost his last nine starts.

That streak of bad luck should end against Newcomb and the Braves.

Pick: Philadelphia Phillies (-159)

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