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Cubs vs Reds Odds, Picks and Predictions (May 23)

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in MLB Baseball

May 22, 2022 · 8:18 PM PDT

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds first baseman Joey Votto (19) recognizes the crowd after hitting a single in the seventh inning of a baseball game against the Chicago Cubs, Monday, Aug. 16, 2021, at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati. The hit marked VottoÕs 2000th career hit. Chicago Cubs At Cincinnati Reds Aug 16
  • The Chicago Cubs are -120 road favorites over the Cincinnati Reds on Monday, May 23
  • The Cubbies have won two in a row at Cincinnati but are 4-6 straight up in their last 10 games there
  • All of the Cubs vs Reds odds, picks, predictions and best bets are analyzed in the story below

As they get set to play host to the Chicago Cubs (16-24, 9-9 road), the Cincinnati Reds (12-28, 5-9 home) are 8-5 straight up over their previous 13 games. For them, that’s a hot streak.

Prior to that stretch, Cinci was 4-23. Though, truth be told, the Cubs aren’t much better. But they’re also improving, going 7-6 over the past 13 games following a 9-18 start.

It’s the visiting Cubs that oddsmakers are tipping in the opener of a four-game set on Monday. The Cubs are -120 road favorites. Chicago is 1-1 straight up as an away favorite this season.

Cubs vs Reds Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
Chicago Cubs -120 -1.5 (+140) O 9 (-110)
Cincinnati Reds +100 +1.5 (-160) U 9 (-110)

Odds as of May 22nd at Caesars Sportsbook.

 

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First pitch at Great American Ballpark on Monday, May 23 is set for 6:40 pm ET. There’s clouds, 7 mph wind and a temperature of 59 degrees in the forecast.

Given the favored moneyline odds of -120 means the Cubs are being assigned an implied probability of victory of 54.55%. Bet $10 on them to win and a successful wager returns a payout of $18.30. Play $10 on the underdog Reds at +100 and you’ll double your money to $20 if Cincinnati wins. The Reds are set with a IP of victory that’s exactly 50%.

Fate Not Smiling on Cubs’ Smyly

Cubs lefty Drew Smyly is one of the hard-luck stories of the 2022 MLB season. Smyly is among the top 4% of MLB pitchers in exit velocity (84.4).

His 1-5 won-lost slate belies other numbers. Smyly’s 3.97 ERA is actually lower that the 4.48 he posted last season while going 11-4 for the Atlanta Braves. Smyly’s WHIP is virtually identical (1.38-1.37) to a year ago and his strikeouts/walks ratio is significantly improved (3.71-2.85).

The Cubs have scored two runs or less in four of Smyly’s five losses. He’s 1-2 with a 2.66 ERA in four road starts this season. Smyly is 3-0 with a 3.09 ERA in five appearances – four of them starts – against the Reds. That includes a 2-0 slate with a 3.12 ERA in four starts at Great American Ballpark.

Smyly vs Gutierrez

Drew Smyly
VS
Vladimir Gutierrez
1-5 Record 0-5
3.97 ERA 8.65
4.00 xERA 5.51
1.38 WHIP 1.96
3.41 SO/W Ratio 1.00

A similar hard-luck case can’t be made for Reds right-hander Vladimir Gutierrez. He’s allowed 17 earned runs and five home runs over his last 13 innings pitched. That’s an 11.77 ERA and a 3.46 home runs per nine innings rate.

Gutierrez is listed in the bottom 1% of wOBA (4.57) and in the bottom 7% in bases on balls percentage (14.8). He’s yet to make it through five innings in six starts this season. His last win was Aug. 22, 2021 against the Miami Marlins.

He made his MLB debut May 28, 2021 at Wrigley Field against the Cubs and took the loss. Gutierrez is 1-2 with a 2.38 ERA in four career starts against the Cubbies.

Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers

Reds Batters Batting Average vs Smyly Cubs Batters Batting Average vs Gutierrez
Aristides Aquino .500 Wilson Contreras .000
Kyle Farmer .000 Yan Gomes .000
TJ Friedl .000 Ian Happ .500
Aramis Garcia .000 PJ Higgins .000
Alejo Lopez .000 Christopher Morel .000
Colin Moran .333 Rafael Ortega .222
Taylor Motter .000 Alfonso Rivas .000
Mike Moustakas .300 Frank Schwindel .500
Tyler Naquin .500 Andrelton Simmons .000
Tommy Pham .000 Seiya Suzuki .000
Matt Reynolds .000 Jonathan Villar .000
Tyler Stephenson .200 Patrick Wisdom .000
Joey Votto .100

Cincinnati’s Aristides Aquino absolutely owns Smyly.  He’s 3-for-6 (.500) with two home runs and three RBI. Colin Moran is 1-for-3 but the hit was a homer and he’s driven in two runs. Mike Moustakas is 3-for-10 (.300) and Tyler Naquin is 1-for-2 (.500), the hit being a solo homer.

Ian Happ of the Cubs is 4-for-8 facing Gutierrez with a pair of solo homers. Frank Schwindel is 2-for-4 (.500) with an RBI.

Cubs vs Reds Prediction

These are two dreadful baseball teams. The Cubs are listed at +4000 to win the NL Central in the MLB Division odds. Cincinnati is +30000 to win the division.

Although historically Gutierrez has pitched well against the Cubs, three of those four starts came at Wrigley Field. He’s 0-1 against Chicago at Great American Ballpark.

Smyly is a 10-year veteran whose history against the Reds is solid, as is his history at Cincinnati. And unlike Gutierrez, Smyly does have a win on the board this season.

Go with the proven commodity.

Pick: Chicago Cubs ML (-120)

 

 

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