Diamondbacks vs Phillies Odds, Picks, and Probable Pitchers (August 27)

• The Philadelphia Phillies are heavy home favorites over the Arizona Diamondbacks on Friday night
• The Phillies send Aaron Nola (7-7, 4.33) to the mound to face Taylor Widener (2-1, 4.34)
• The odds and pitching matchups can be found below with a prediction

The Philadelphia Phillies try to stay in the National League Wild Card conversation against the Arizona Diamondbacks at 7:05 PM EST Friday in the second game of a four-game series at Citizens Bank Park.

The Phillies won eight straight games to open the month of August, but manager Joe Girardi’s club has cooled off since, losing 11 of 15 heading into Friday’s contest, including dropping Thursday’s series opener 8-7. Arizona swept Philly in a three-game set in Phoenix last week, but with Aaron Nola getting the start Friday, the Phillies are heavily favored.

Diamondbacks vs Phillies Odds

Odds as of August 26th at DraftKings

The Phillies opened as -210 favorites on the money line and have seen their odds lengthen heading into the first pitch.

Probable Pitchers

On the mound, Philadelphia’s Aaron Nola (7-7, 4.33) faces Taylor Widener (2-1, 4.34).

Nola brings 910 more innings of experience into Friday’s matchup against the 26-year-old Widener.  Ten of Nola’s 25 starts this season have been quality ones (including three where the former All-Star pitched into the eighth inning). But only three quality starts have come in the last two months. One of those outings was his last appearance Saturday against the Padres. Nola went 8.2 innings in San Diego, allowing only two hits, two earned runs, and two walks while striking out 11 in an eventual 4-3 defeat at the hands of the Pads. It was the fifth time he’s reached double-digit strikeouts this season.

Widener vs Nola Key Stats

The 28-year-old has the clear advantage in this spot, but he’s been surprisingly well-below average after sunset.

Nola is 4-3 with a 3.32 ERA in 11 home starts this season. But in 15 night game starts, he has a 4-6 record and 5.02 ERA. He may have been a little extra hyped up in his last outing for obvious reasons.

Aaron Nola's fastest 2 pitches of the season both came in his first ever MLB matchup against his older brother, Austin Nola.

– 96.2 mph fastball on 0-2 count (swinging strikeout)
– 95.9 mph fastball on 0-1 count (called strike) pic.twitter.com/1KZbYV1dbm

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) August 22, 2021

As for Widener, the 26-year-old rookie started the season strong, recording two quality starts in his first three outings (his only two quality starts out of 12 this season). But a groin injury in late May put him on the shelf for six weeks (after he had already missed the better part of a month due to the same injury) until early July. He’s gone at least five innings in three straight starts. That includes his most recent one Sunday, when he went five innings, allowing only one hit, one earned run, and five walks to go along with five strikeouts in an 8-4 win over the Rockies.

Meanwhile, Widener is 2-1 with a 3.16 ERA in eight starts on the road in 2021. He’s 0-1 with a 5.21 ERA in eight night game starts.

RHP Taylor Widener has made 11 starts & given up 2 ER or less in six of them, including last night.

An area to work on though: pitch efficiency. He's hasn't made it past the 6th inning in any start.

Last night was a step in the right direction, he threw 68 pitches in 5 innings.

— Arizona Diamondbacks | Stats & Info (@DbacksStatsInfo) August 18, 2021

Brotherly Offense

The MVP chatter around Bryce Harper has faded a bit since the Phillies have dropped out of the NL East lead, but the franchise star has still been the team’s hottest hitter over the last week.

Bryce Harper did not miss this one. pic.twitter.com/QRuj8jzLdX

— Todd Zolecki (@ToddZolecki) August 26, 2021

The 2015 NL MVP has gone 8-for-21 (.381) over his last six games prior to Thursday’s action, launching a pair of homers and driving in six in that timeframe. Odubel Herrera and JT Realmuto have also been solid in that same stretch, going a combined 10-for-37 with three homers and seven RBI in their last five games each.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Taylor Widener

Only two probable Arizona hitters Friday — Josh VanMeter and David Peralta — have faced Nola. That’s how young the D-backs lineup is. The pair are a combined 3-for-7 (.429) against him though, with a home run.

The Snakes enter Friday’s game going 6-4 in their last ten games — and several hitters in their lineup are red-hot.

Daulton Varsho with 9 HR to go with an OPS over .800 and an OPS+ over 115 in 164 at bats this season seems really good for anyone, let alone a guy some wrote off as recently as 2 months ago

— CarrollBarrels (@DbackRants) August 24, 2021

Daulton Varsho has hit three home runs in his last five games prior to Thursday’s series lid-lifter, going for 6-for-20 over that stretch, driving in six runs with an OPS of 1.233. Ketel Marte and David Peralta have paced the Snakes, going a combined 19-for-45 (.422) in their last seven games, driving in a total of nine runs, and scoring five times combined.

Diamondbacks vs Phillies Pick

As noted above, Arizona swept Philly in a three-game set last week at home and beat the Phillies Thursday in the only four head-to-head games the two teams have played in this season. Even though Nola has the edge from a starting pitcher perspective, I’m not ready to say the Phillies are a lock to win Friday.

With the D-backs being as hot as they have been of late, with the added value of a good price, the Snakes are a solid underdog play.

The Pick: Diamondbacks +190