MLB Home Run Leader Odds & Picks for 2026 – Raleigh Not in Top 3

• 2025 Home Run King Cal Raleigh has the fourth shortest odds to hit the most dingers in 2026
• Aaron Judge is the favorite, followed by Shohei Ohtani and Kyle Schwarber
• Keep reading for the MLB Home Rune Leader odds, plus my favorite picks for 2026

Spring Training is well under way, so it’s time to dive deep into the MLB futures market. My focus for today is the MLB Home Run Leaders, where last year’s champ Cal Raleigh is not listed among the top-three contenders.

The reigning home run king currently boasts the fourth shortest odds to repeat, and while that may seem disrespectful, there’s an argument to be made his price should actually be longer.

2026 MLB Home Run Leader Odds

To no one’s surprise, Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani are the favorites in this market, just like they are in the MLB MVP odds. They sport +350 and +400 odds respectively, while Kyle Schwarber checks in next at +800. He’s followed by Raleigh at +900, and while it’s not hard to make a case for the favorites, there’s plenty of intriguing longshots to swing for the fences with instead.

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Raleigh Is Unlikely to Repeat as Home Run Leader

There are a few reasons to avoid Raleigh to repeat. For starters, he’s a catcher which is baseball’s most grueling position. Catchers are more susceptible to wear and tear injuries, and the toll of playing the position typically takes away from a players performance at the plate.

Raleigh has always been blessed with pop, but his 60 home runs last year nearly doubled his previous career-high of 34. That’s despite earning just 50 more at-bats, and not seeing a dramatic increase in his wxOBA, hard hit% or flyball rate. If you’re wondering if was lucky, the stats suggest he was.

Cal Raleigh 2025 vs Career Stats

Raleigh exceeded his expected home run total by 9 dingers in 2025, more than anyone else in baseball. He also hit 15 home runs that would have only flown out in 1-7 parks, which was tied for the third most. His no doubter percentage was also less than the previous season, another sign that potential regression is coming.

Contrast those stats with Judge, whose Yankees own the AL’s shortest MLB playoff odds. Judge only exceeded his expected home run total by 1 dinger, and his no doubter percentage was 8% higher than Raleigh’s. Judge’s ISO, wxOBA, barrel and hardhit % from 2025 were all in line with his career averages, making it much more likely that he’ll once again be among the home run leaders.

If I had to bet at the top, I’d much rather take the Yankee slugger than Raleigh even at a shorter number, as there are no outliers with his stats.

MLB Home Run Leader Picks

• Vinnie Pasquantino (+10000): Since entering the league in 2022, KC’s Vinnie Pasquantino has posted elite xwOBA and hardhit% stats. In 2025, he was one of the unluckiest home run hitters, as he finished 3.5 dingers shy of expectation. Despite that metric, he still blasted 32 home runs and had one of the highest no doubter percentages at 56%. As a member of the Royals, he’s been playing in one of the least friendly hitter home parks, but that’s about to change. Kauffman Stadium underwent significant changes in the offseason, moving the fences in as much as 10 feet in some areas. That’s going to boost the Royals projection in the MLB win totals and Pasquantino’s home run projection. At 100-1, he’s a clear value.
• Byron Buxton (+10000): From one +10000 longshot to another, it’s impossible to ignore Byron Buxton in this market. The Twins outfielder plays in a top-five hitter friendly park, and ranked in the 92nd percentile or higher in expected slugging, average exit velocity, hardhit and barrel % last season. That marked the third time in the last four seasons he’s produced elite stats in those categories, and no one had a higher no doubter percentage in 2025 than Buxton. 68.6% of his home runs would have flown out of every MLB park, which was a 21% higher mark than Ohtani, and a 17% higher clip than Judge.