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See the best Home Run Props to Target Today – Get a +3596 HR Parlay on Tuesday, May 20th

John Hyslop

By John Hyslop in MLB Baseball

Published:


May 19, 2025; San Francisco, California, USA; Kansas City Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. (7) hits a double during the first inning against the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images
  • It’s Dinger Tuesday in the MLB on Tuesday, May 20
  • The best way to celebrate is to hit a bunch of dinger bets
  • See below for my +3596 home run parlay today (May 20th)

We’ve made it to another Dinger Tuesday and, dammit, that means we’re betting dingers again. I know we do it almost every day, but for some reason, Dinger Tuesday feels different. In some ways, it is different. For instance, I really want to win one today, so I did the smartest possible thing I could do: I choked up on the bat. Not literally, obviously, because we’re not the ones actually hitting, but figuratively. Instead of the normal three-leg Thilly, we’re going two-leg on them. The books will never see it coming. They’re waiting for the three-leg, then out of nowhere, here we come with a two-leg. What’s even better is, the two guys I picked will both likely homer in their first at-bat of the night. This is literally sweat-free. Feels easy.

Please remember to play both legs straight for a 1/4 unit as well as a 1/4 unit two-leg parlay.

MLB Home Run Parlay Today (May 20)

PickOdds
Kyle Stowers HR+460
Bobby Witt Jr HR+560
Two-Leg Parlay+3596

MLB odds as of May 20 at FanDuel. Check out SBD’s list of the top sports betting apps.

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Tuesday HR Parlay Leg #1 – Kyle Stowers to Hit a Home Run

If we’re doing this right, we’re going to need something in the early games. The slate begins at 6:40 PM ET tonight, so that’s where we’ll look. Lucky for us, the best possible play on the entire board is in the early slate of games. How lucky could we possibly be?

The idea that we get to bet on Kyle Stowers versus Jameson Taillon is an absolute gift from the gambling gods.

PitchStowers Barrel Rate vs RHP (L30 Days)Taillon Hard Hit Rate vs LHB (2025)
Four-seam Fastball38%80%
Curveball100%64%

Obviously we want to target a guy hitting the crap out of the ball, but it’s also nice to have a pitcher that serves up barrels. This is a two-way street, and we have exactly what we’re looking for in Jameson Taillon. This guy legit has a 28% barrel rate over the last two weeks. That might be a record. His four-seamer ends up in the seats all the time, and Stowers puts that pitch in the seats all the time. Feels like a great combo for us dinger people.

  • The Bet: Kyle Stowers to Hit a Home Run (+525) – BetMGM
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Tuesday HR Parlay Leg #2 – Bobby Witt to Hit a Home Run

Since we’ve got the earliest possible matchup for our first leg, we might as well look at the late games for the second leg. That way, we stretch our entertainment dollars as much as we can. It’s a classic smart gambler move, and we’re nothing if we’re not smart gamblers.

The thing is, we don’t have to be smart to see that Bobby Witt is going to put a Hayden Birdsong pitch on the moon tonight.

PitchWitt Barrel Rate vs RHP (L30 Days)Birdsong ISO vs RHB (2025)
Slider14.3%.231
Four-seam Fastball29%.500

Just like with Taillon, Birdsong is a big barrel guy. We’re talking a 20% barrel rate over the last 14 days. It’s actually only five innings in Birdsong’s case, but whatever. The guy gets smashed, especially by righties. Over the last month, we’re looking at a 12.5% barrel rate for the right-handed guys. He’s the perfect guy to give up a dinger to Bobby Witt and the idea that Witt is +575 blows my mind. This whole thing feels as free as the air we’re all breathing right now. Maybe freeer.

  • The Bet: Bobby Witt to Hit a Home Run (+575) – BetMGM

John Hyslop

John has spent the past 20+ years betting sports on a daily basis and is considered by many to be a walking sports betting encyclopedia. From obscure player props to sides and totals, if there is an angle, John will find it.

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