Astros vs Rangers Odds, Picks, and Probable Pitchers (Sep. 16)
By Bryan Thiel in MLB Baseball
Published:
- The Houston Astros wrap up their four-game series with the Texas Rangers on Thursday
- Framber Valdez (10-5, 3.26 ERA) goes for Houston; Glenn Otto (0-1, 6.92 ERA) starts for Texas
- See the odds and preview for the final game of this AL West season series
The Houston Astros (85-60; 40-33) are closing in on their fourth AL West title in the last five years. Meanwhile the Texas Rangers (54-91; 32-39) are nestled firmly in the basement. Their attention has turned to 2022 and splitting this series.
Houston sends Framber Valdez to the mound on Thursday, as the 27-year old looks to put the finishing touches on a strong second season as a full-time starter. Texas counters with Glenn Otto, who is making just his fourth career start.
First pitch is set for 8:05 pm EST from Globe Life Park in Arlington on Thursday.
Astros vs Rangers Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros | -235 | -1.5 (-140) | Ov 8.5 (-120) |
| Texas Rangers | +190 | +1.5 (+120) | Un 8.5 (+100) |
Odds as of September 15th from DraftKings
It’s not surprising to see the Astros favored so heavily. They’ve won two of three so far this series, by scores of 15-1 and 7-2. Texas won 8-1 on Tuesday, so all three games have either hit the over or pushed.
Houston leads the series 13-5. 12 of the 18 games have seen nine or more runs scored. The under has hit both times Valdez pitched against the Rangers.
Probable Pitchers
This will be the final time these two face off this year. For Valdez it will be his third time facing Texas, and for the most part he hasn’t had much trouble against the Rangers. He’s 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA across 13.0 innings. His 11K/7BB ratio is a little bloated thanks to the six free passes he issued in his first start against the Rangers.
Despite the control issues, he still fired six shutout innings.
For Otto, it will be his second time facing the Astros in just four career starts. While he’s struggled his last two turns, the 25-year old turned in a gem in his MLB debut against these same ‘Stros. He struck out seven across five scoreless innings.
Framber Valdez vs Glenn Otto
| 19 | Starts | 3 |
| 10-5 | Record | 0-1 |
| 116.0 | Innings Pitched | 13.0 |
| 42/47 | Earned Runs/Runs | 10/10 |
| 97 | Hits | 14 |
| 109/50 | Strikeouts/Walks | 16/2 |
| 3.26 | ERA | 6.92 |
| 1.267 | WHIP | 1.231 |
| 8.5 | K/9 | 11.1 |
Otto was one of four pieces heading to the Rangers in the Joey Gallo deal. His last two starts have seen him go 4.2 and 3.1 innings. He surrendered two runs in those four innings against the Angels, striking out four and walking one. His last turn was his worst however, as Oakland battered him for eight runs on eight hits.
Trivial fun fact of the day: There have been eight 14 K or more starts by minor league pitchers this season. Half of them by Reid Detmers and Glenn Otto: pic.twitter.com/aGVCAAcQNY
— Nate Handy (@pitchingspecs) September 8, 2021
One thing that Otto has done well throughout both the minors and majors is control the long ball. He’s given up eight home runs in 187.1 innings in the minors, which will help on Thursday against a power-laden lineup.
Brantley Sits Out Series vs Rangers
The Astros have been missing Michael Brantley since Sunday because of a knee injury.
With his return potentially slated for Friday, Otto will miss one of Houston’s biggest contact threats. Brantley went 1-for-2 in Otto’s last start against the Astros.
Batting Average vs Starting Pitcher
| Astros Batter | Batting Average vs Otto | Rangers Batter | Batting Average vs Valdez |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez | .500 | Charlie Culberson | .000 |
| Michael Brantley | .500 | Adolis Garcia | .400 |
| Alex Bregman | .000 | Yonny Hernandez | .000 |
| Carlos Correa | .000 | Isiah Kiner-Falefa | .167 |
| Aledmys Diaz | .000 | Nathaniel Lowe | .000 |
| Yuli Gurriel | .000 | DJ Peters | .000 |
| Martin Maldonado | .000 | Yohel Pozo | .333 |
| Jake Meyers | .000 | Nick Solak | .333 |
| Kyle Tucker | .000 | Leody Tavares | .143 |
| N/A | N/A | Jose Trevino | .000 |
In 52 at-bats against Valdez, the Rangers have managed just one extra-base hit. That’s a solo home run by Adolis Garcia. Garcia is one of just three Rangers, along with Kiner-Falefa and Solak, to have multiple hits against Valdez.
Valdez’s last two starts have seen him give up eight earned runs over 11 innings. His walk problems have returned, as he’s walked seven batters in that span and given up 12 hits. He’s also given up five XBH in that stretch.
Framber Valdez had given up one extra-base hit — a double — in 66 plate appearances against lefthanded hitters all season. The Angels' first two lefties have homered against him tonight.
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) September 11, 2021
Before that he had given up three or more runs just once in his previous seven starts, striking out 43 in 44.1 innings, and walking 19.
With just 17 games left before the postseason, and four starts at most, Valdez needs to iron out the kinks.
Astros vs Rangers Pick
Looking at how Valdez has pitched against the Rangers and how Otto performed in his start against Houston, the under is very tempting. Especially at +100. But it’s tough to ignore how high-scoring games between these two have been.
Valdez has struggled lately, but he has a penchant for righting the ship. He hasn’t allowed 4+ runs in three consecutive appearances since 2019. Otto meanwhile, has crossed 100 IP for the first time in his professional career. It’s been a long year and even if he’s dominant he likely won’t go deep.
Even if it isn’t a blowout, expect the Astros to cover.
The Pick: Houston Astros -1.5 (-140)
Sports Writer
Bryan has spent the last decade working in the sports industry. From the sidelines in the OHL and Rugby League to behind the scenes at TSN, Bryan has a wealth of experience with a soft spot for props and parlays.
