Jacob deGrom now NL MVP Favorite at +200; Tatis Jr. at +275
- Despite leaving his last start early, Jacob deGrom is now the NL MVP favorite at +200
- DeGrom has one more RBI (five) than he has earned runs (four) allowed in 2021
- Can the two-time Cy Young Award winner join elite company this season?
Despite leaving his last start early with right flexor tendinitis, New York Met ace Jacob deGrom is doing just fine, thank-you-very-much. The team announced the two-time Cy Young Award winner is expected to make his next start. Now, the 32-year-old has overtaken Padres shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. as the favorite to win the NL MVP Award (+200 vs. +275).
Why the sudden move to favorite status? In 10 starts this season, all deGrom has done is go 6-2 with 103 strikeouts over 64 innings. He leads Major League Baseball by nearly a whole run, sporting a minuscule 0.56 ERA (the Giants’ surprise Cy Young contender Kevin Gausman has a 1.43 ERA). The microscopic total through 10 starts is the lowest since earned runs became an official stat in 1913.
So, is deGrom in line to join only Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander as the only pitchers since 1993 to win both the MVP and Cy Young Award in the same season? When you take a peak at the updated NL MVP odds, it would certainly seem so. Let’s handicap his chances on closing out what would be an historic season on a number of fronts.
2021 NL MVP Odds
| Player (Team) | Odds at DraftKings |
|---|---|
| Jacob deGrom (NYM) | +200 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr (SD) | +275 |
| Ronald Acuna Jr (ATL) | +420 |
| Kris Bryant (CHC) | +2200 |
| Nick Castellanos (CIN) | +2200 |
| Juan Soto (WAS) | +2500 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | +2500 |
| Jesse Winker (CIN) | +2500 |
| Mookie Betts (LAD) | +3000 |
| Trea Turner (WAS) | +3300 |
| Freddie Freeman (ATL) | +3300 |
| Nolan Arenado (STL) | +3500 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | +4000 |
| Cody Bellinger (LAD) | +4000 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | +4000 |
| Anthony Rizzo (CHC) | +4000 |
| Corey Seager (LAD) | +4000 |
| Javy Baez (CHC) | +5000 |
| Christian Yelich (MIL) | +5000 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | +5000 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | +6000 |
| Rhys Hoskins (PHI) | +6000 |
Odds as of June 14, 2021.
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Another Planet — But For How Long?
At the moment, deGrom’s stats are out of this world. Among pitchers with at least 60 innings thrown this year, he leads the bigs in the following: ERA (0.56), FIP (0.92), K% (46.2), ERA+ (688), BAA (.121), opponents’ OBP (.152), opponents’ SLG (.220) opponents’ OPS+ (7), K/BB (12.88), and WHIP (0.531). His trails only Corbin Burnes in K/9 (14.49 vs. 14.48).
Jacob deGrom reached 100 K in 61 2/3 IP this season, the fewest IP by a starter to reach 100 K in a single season since the mound moved to its current distance in 1893. pic.twitter.com/TRFgpT8HuS
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) June 12, 2021
His numbers certainly compare favorably to Kershaw in 2014 and Verlander in 2011. But his 3.8 WAR is way off those of future Hall of Famers Kershaw’s (7.7) and Verlander’s (8.6). In fact, among the seven starters who have turned the MVP-Cy Young double since 1956, deGrom’s wins-above-replacement stat is comparably quite low. And while that may be nitpicking, deGrom’s injury concerns linger.
Kershaw missed six starts in 2014 due to back issues and still managed his historic season. But keep in mind, the Dodgers lefty (and Verlander) also tossed no-hitters in their singularly stupendous seasons. Even if deGrom stays healthy, can he throw in a no-no? He may need one to become the first Amazin’ to win an MVP.
The Field
Two things need to happen for a pitcher to win an MVP. First, they need to put up jaw-dropping stats for a contending team. Second, the field of position players needs to be weak. Check on the first point for deGrom. As for the second point, it’s not like the Senior Circuit is bereft of standout performances. It’s just that no other player has had that “MVP moment” yet.
Tatis is hitting .276 with 17 home runs, 39 RBI, 42 runs and an NL-leading 13 stolen bases for a San Diego team that appears to be in the postseason mix for a second straight season. Meanwhile, Acuna is hitting .282 with 18 dingers, 39 RBI, 52 runs and 12 stolen bases for Atlanta. Statistically-speaking, it would appear Acuna should actually be ahead of Tatis in odds (and might be a good investment right now).
Who is your early NL MVP?
— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) June 8, 2021
There’s also still three-and-a-half months left of the season. The BBWAA is loathe to double up two of its marquee postseason awards on one pitcher — that’s why it’s only been done ten times since the creation of the Cy Young Award. For this reason alone, it’s hard to foresee deGrom pulling it off.
The Verdict
The fact that deGrom has more runs driven in than earned runs allowed in mid-June — and is hitting .400 (going 10-for-25 at the plate) is one of those stats that may trump his semi-pedestrian WAR (I say “pedestrian” based on his other incredible stats).
deGrom making a serious case for NL MVP pic.twitter.com/xmZzOFOlG0
— Barstool Sportsbook (@BSSportsbook) June 12, 2021
And while logic (and history) tell us Tatis, Acuna or perhaps Kris Bryant are more likely MVP favorites than deGrom when the season comes to a close, the Mets ace is the current leader in the clubhouse because of overall value to the club.
Ironically, the wild card may be what deGrom does at the plate. If he’s able to finish above .300, pencil deGrom in for history — and a likely ticket to Cooperstown along with it.
Blair Johnson is a veteran journalist and seasoned sports content creator. He has been writing and producing content as long as he can remember, with such familiar names as CNN, NFL Media and Yahoo. Blair currently lives and works in the greater Los Angeles area.
