- Jake Odorizzi is a top AL Cy Young contender after posting a 4-0 record and a 0.94 ERA in May
- Odorizzi is undefeated in his last nine starts and has allowed just 14 earned runs all season
- Is he a legit AL Cy Young Contender?
Jake Odorizzi had to watch his former teammate Blake Snell take home the AL Cy Young Award last season, but this year it appears the tables may have turned.
.@JakeOdorizzi improves to 8-2 this season!
— Minnesota Twins (@Twins) June 2, 2019
Fresh off a dominant month of May, in which he posted a 4-0 record and 0.94 ERA, Odorizzi’s AL Cy Young Odds have gone from nonexistent to +500, trailing only those of Astros ace Justin Verlander.
2019 American League Cy Young Odds
|Player||2019 AL Cy Young Odds at BetOnline|
*Odds taken 06/03/19
Odorizzi got off to a slow start in 2019, posting disappointing numbers in two of his first three outings, but since then he’s been virtually unhittable. The Twins right-hander has allowed just six runs since April 10th and has posted scoreless starts over the Astros and Yankees, two of the most feared offences in baseball.
Odorizzi Has Been Outstanding in 2019
Odorizzi has had plenty of big league success over the past half decade but nothing compares to the level of dominance he’s exhibited this season. He’s on pace for career highs in K/9 and strand rate, and career lows in ERA, WHIP, HR/9, and opponent batting average.
Jake Odorizzi, Nasty Tailing 95mph Fastball. ? pic.twitter.com/GfeCzPXQ53
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 26, 2019
He’s currently inducing the highest swinging strike rate of his career, and his velocity on his fastball is up 1.5 miles per hour over last season.
Opponents are hitting .153 in at-bats ending with Jake Odorizzi’s fastball this season.
That’s the lowest batting average against a starting pitcher’s fastball this season (minimum 400 thrown).
Hitters were 1-for-16 with 7 K against it yesterday pic.twitter.com/0Y62pRWGVm
— Sports Info Solutions (@SportsInfo_SIS) June 3, 2019
He leads the Twins with a 1.95 win probability added in 2019, and is a big reason why they currently own an MLB best .690 winning percentage.
Is Regression Coming?
Critics of Odorizzi will be quick to point out that his opponents’ batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is extremely low and that he’s allowing the highest hard hit rate of his career. If the BABIP regresses back to league average and the hard hit rate doesn’t come down, he could be in line for serious regression which could derail his Cy Young ambitions.
Jake Odorizzi, Overpowering 95mph Fastball (108th pitch). ? pic.twitter.com/1UuOTjIJkB
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 2, 2019
Fortunately for him, he has one of the best defences in baseball playing behind him that can surely cover up a few warts. Yes the BABIP is low, but he’s actually posted a season in the past with an even lower total, so it could just as easily be a product of how good his stuff is when he’s on. I personally wouldn’t shy away from betting him, but if you’re having doubts consider Lucas Giolito at even longer odds.
Giolito is Finally Living Up to His Potential
The White Sox right hander is finally living up to his billing as a top prospect. He’s won six straight starts and has allowed one run or fewer in 54% of his outings this season.
10 K’s and ready to run through a brick wall pic.twitter.com/fQy4bqMqwY
— Barstool Chicago (@barstoolchicago) May 29, 2019
He possesses an elite fastball, a nasty off-speed arsenal and is fresh off being named the American League Pitcher of the Month for May, ahead of Odorizzi.
Pick: Giolito (+1000)
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