Upcoming Match-ups

Jake Odorizzi Emerges with 5-1 Odds to Win AL Cy Young Award After Going Unbeaten in May

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in MLB Baseball

Updated Mar 31, 2020 · 4:23 PM PDT

Jake Odorizzi
Jake Odorizzi is unbeaten in his last nine starts and leads the AL in ERA. Photo by Keith Allison (Wikimedia Commons) [CC License].
  • Jake Odorizzi is a top AL Cy Young contender after posting a 4-0 record and a 0.94 ERA in May
  • Odorizzi is undefeated in his last nine starts and has allowed just 14 earned runs all season
  • Is he a legit AL Cy Young Contender?

Jake Odorizzi had to watch his former teammate Blake Snell take home the AL Cy Young Award last season, but this year it appears the tables may have turned.

Fresh off a dominant month of May, in which he posted a 4-0 record and 0.94 ERA, Odorizzi’s AL Cy Young Odds have gone from nonexistent to +500, trailing only those of Astros ace Justin Verlander.

2019 American League Cy Young Odds

Player 2019 AL Cy Young Odds
Justin Verlander +150
Jake Odorizzi +500
Jose Berrios +600
Domingo German +700
Lucas Giolito +1000
Mike Minor +1000
Charlie Morton +1200
Matthew Boyd +1200
Gerrit Cole +1600
Blake Snell +2000
Trevor Bauer +2500

*Odds taken 06/03/19

Odorizzi got off to a slow start in 2019, posting disappointing numbers in two of his first three outings, but since then he’s been virtually unhittable. The Twins right-hander has allowed just six runs since April 10th and has posted scoreless starts over the Astros and Yankees, two of the most feared offences in baseball.

Odorizzi Has Been Outstanding in 2019

Odorizzi has had plenty of big league success over the past half decade but nothing compares to the level of dominance he’s exhibited this season. He’s on pace for career highs in K/9 and strand rate, and career lows in ERA, WHIP, HR/9, and opponent batting average.

He’s currently inducing the highest swinging strike rate of his career, and his velocity on his fastball is up 1.5 miles per hour over last season.

He leads the Twins with a 1.95 win probability added in 2019, and is a big reason why they currently own an MLB best .690 winning percentage.

Is Regression Coming?

Critics of Odorizzi will be quick to point out that his opponents’ batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is extremely low and that he’s allowing the highest hard hit rate of his career. If the BABIP regresses back to league average and the hard hit rate doesn’t come down, he could be in line for serious regression which could derail his Cy Young ambitions.

Fortunately for him, he has one of the best defences in baseball playing behind him that can surely cover up a few warts. Yes the BABIP is low, but he’s actually posted a season in the past with an even lower total, so it could just as easily be a product of how good his stuff is when he’s on. I personally wouldn’t shy away from betting him, but if you’re having doubts consider Lucas Giolito at even longer odds.

Giolito is Finally Living Up to His Potential

The White Sox right hander is finally living up to his billing as a top prospect. He’s won six straight starts and has allowed one run or fewer in 54% of his outings this season.

He possesses an elite fastball, a nasty off-speed arsenal and is fresh off being named the American League Pitcher of the Month for May, ahead of Odorizzi.

Pick: Giolito (+1000)

Author Image