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Mariners vs Red Sox Odds and Picks (May 22)

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in MLB Baseball

May 21, 2022 · 9:39 PM PDT

Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox
May 21, 2022; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Red Sox catcher Christian Vazquez (7) reacts after hitting a RBI single during the eighth inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Boston Red Sox are -135 home favorites over the Seattle Mariners on Sunday, May 22
  • Boston will be looking to sweep the four-game weekend series
  • All of the Mariners vs Red Sox odds, picks, predictions and best bets are right here in this story

Death, taxes and the Seattle Mariners getting beat by the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park remain three of the things that you can count on from life.

The latter item might not be as certain as the first two, but it is as close to a lock as you’ll find in professional baseball. Boston (18-22, 9-10 home) will be taking the diamond on Sunday seeking to sweep a four-game home series from the visiting Mariners (17-24, 9-17 away). Overall, the Red Sox have won six in a row from Seattle. At Boston, the Red Sox are 14-4 straight up in the last 18 meetings with the Mariners.

With the BoSox set at -135 favorites for Sunday’s series ender, this trend is expected to continue. Boston has won seven home series in a row over Seattle. The Mariners last won a set at Fenway Park in 2014.

Mariners vs Red Sox Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
Seattle Mariners +115 +1.5 (-170) O 9.5 (-105)
Boston Red Sox -135 -1.5 (+145) U 9.5 (-115)

Odds as of May 21st at Caesars Sportsbook.

 

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First pitch of Sunday’s game at Fenway Park is set for 1:35 pm ET. In the forecast, there’s rain, 5 mph wind, and a temperature of 79 degrees.

At a favored moneyline of -135, Boston is given a 57.45% implied probability of victory. Public betting is almost in lockstep with that percentage. There’s 56% of the bets placed against the spread on the Red Sox at -1.5. Moneyline splits are also showing 56% of the bets are on the Red Sox at -135 odds. As well, 56% of the public bets are on the Over (9.5).

Neither club is given much hope in the MLB Division odds. Boston is the +3000 fourth betting choice to win the AL East. Seattle is at a betting line of +1300 and the third choice to win the AL West.

Eovaldi Struggling for BoSox

Already with four wins, second-year Mariners right-hander Logan Gilbert is nearing the six wins he put up last season as a rookie. However, Gilbert is winless since May 2 and has dropped his last two decisions.

He’s 0-2 with a 5.29 ERA over his past three starts. However, he has struck out 24 batters over the past 17 innings pitched.

Gilbert is 8-3 with a 3.67 ERA in 16 career road starts. He’s faced Boston once. Gilbert worked six innings, didn’t figure in the decision and is showing a 3.00 ERA. This will be his first time pitching at Fenway Park.

Gilbert vs Eovaldi

Logan Gilbert
VS
Nathan Eovaldi
4-2 Record 1-2
2.40 ERA 4.32
3.54 xERA 5.10
1.11 WHIP 1.22
3.19 SO/W Ratio 6.00

To say Eovaldi is scuffling would be putting it politely. He’s served up an AL-high 14 home runs. He allowed 15 dingers in all of 2021. In his last start, at home on May 17 against the Houston Astros, the right-hander was taken deep five times in 1.2 innings of work.

His only win was on April 13. Eovaldi is 0-2 with a 7.94 ERA in three starts this season at Fenway Park. He’s among the bottom 2% in maximum exit velocity (116.3) and in the bottom 7% in xLSG (.583) and xwOBAcon (.077).

Against the Mariners, Eovaldi is 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA in six starts. Seattle has gone deep off of him five times in 32 innings. But Eovaldi is a solid 13-8 at Fenway Park.

Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers

Red Sox Batters Batting Average vs Gilbert Mariners Batters Batting Average vs Eovaldi
Christian Arroyo .000 JP Crawford .200
Xander Bogaerts .333 Mike Ford .000
Jackie Bradley Jr .000 Ty France .500
Franchy Cordero .000 Adam Frazier .000
Bobby Dalbec .000 Dylan Moore .000
Rafael Devers .000 Cal Raleigh .500
Enrique Hernandez .000 Julio Rodriguez .000
JD Martinez .000 Steven Souza Jr .250
Kevin Plawecki .000 Eugenio Suarez .000
Trevor Story .000 Abraham Toro .000
Alex Verdugo .333 Luis Torrens .000
Christian Vazquez .500 Jesse Winkler .000

Red Sox batters Xander Bogaerts and Alex Verdugo are both 1-for-3 (.333) when facing Gilbert. Christian Vazquez is 1-for-2 (.500).

Seattle’s Ty France is 3-for-6 (.500) with an RBI off of Eovaldi.  Cal Raleigh is also a .500 hitter (1-for-2) against Eovaldi.

Mariners vs Red Sox Prediction

If any more evidence were needed of the hoodoo that the Red Sox are holding over the Mariners, consider this – Seattle held 4-0 and 5-0 leads in the last two games and lost both of them.

Boston has won three series in a row and goes for the sweep of Seattle on Sunday afternoon. The Red Sox have won four in a row, five out of six games and eight of the last 11.

Pick: Boston Red Sox ML (-135)

 

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