Scherzer Favored to Lead MLB in Strikeouts in 2019; Over/Unders For 26 Pitchers
- Max Scherzer has the highest strikeout prop for the 2019 MLB season
- Scherzer led the Majors in strikeouts each of the last three seasons
- Which over/unders offer the best value?
Major League Baseball has set a new strikeout record in 11 consecutive seasons. Last year, hitters struck out a whopping 41,207 times, and no pitcher in baseball was responsible for more K’s than Max Scherzer.
Max Scherzer is the third pitcher in the past 15 years to strikeout 300 batters in a single season. pic.twitter.com/sKISncb32G
— Washington Nationals (@Nationals) September 26, 2018
The three-time Cy Young award winner became the 17th pitcher in MLB history to register 300 strikeouts last season, and to no one’s surprise is projected to finish with the most punch outs again in 2019.
2019 MLB Regular Season Strikeouts
| Player | Projection | Over Odds | Under Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Max Scherzer | 273.5 | -115 | -115 |
| Chris Sale | 259.5 | -115 | -115 |
| Jacob deGrom | 250.5 | -115 | -115 |
| Justin Verlander | 244.5 | -115 | -115 |
| Gerrit Cole | 244.5 | -115 | -115 |
| Carlos Carrasco | 224.5 | +105 | -135 |
| Patrick Corbin | 215.5 | +105 | -135 |
| Chris Archer | 210.5 | -115 | -115 |
| Aaron Nola | 210.5 | -115 | -115 |
| Stephen Strasburg | 185.5 | -115 | -115 |
*All odds taken on 03/02/19
He’s led the Majors in strikeouts in three straight seasons, and is the only pitcher in baseball with a strikeout projection above 260 for 2019.
Max Scherzer O/U 273.5 Strikeouts
Scherzer is an elite combination of skill and durability, pitching at least 200 innings in six straight seasons, while maintaining a K/9 of at least 10.1.
His K/9 has increased in five straight seasons, culminating with a career best 12.2 last season, which ranked second behind Gerrit Cole. He struck out 29% of the batters he faced in 2018 and led the Majors with 18 double digit strikeout games.
Tonight was the 82nd 10+ strikeout game of Max Scherzer’s career.
It was his 18th of 2018. pic.twitter.com/LGEXs9i44p
— Washington Nationals (@Nationals) September 26, 2018
He’s exceeded 274 strikeouts in three of the past four seasons, falling just short in 2017, due to a DL stint.
If Scherzer’s early spring training performance is any indication of things to come in 2019, he should have no problem hitting the over on his strikeout prop.
Max Scherzer pitched 3 innings.
Max Scherzer needed only 39 pitches.
Max Scherzer gave up only 1 hit.
Max Scherzer notched 4 Ks.?️?️?️?️#Scherzday // #OnePursuit pic.twitter.com/LCnZISunIN
— Washington Nationals (@Nationals) February 28, 2019
Pick: Over 273.5 (-115)
Gerrit Cole O/U 244.5 Strikeouts
Prior to 2018, Gerrit Cole averaged a strikeout per inning only once in his first five seasons. Last year, however, he had an MLB best 12.4 K/9, exceeding his previous career high for strikeouts in a season by 74.
Gerrit Cole now has more 10-strikeout games in 25 starts with the Astros (7) than he did in 127 starts with the Pirates (6).
His 12 strikeouts so far tonight are his most since recording a career-high 16 on May 4 earlier this season. pic.twitter.com/kdmTd53Bp3
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) August 16, 2018
Relying less on his fastball and more on his breaking pitches, he registered a career-high 14.1% swinging strike rate. Cole has the luxury of playing in the same division as the White Sox, baseball’s most strikeout prone team in 2018, but regression is bound to hit.
Astros P Gerrit Cole has the largest increase in Strikeout Rate from 2017 to 2018 (from 23.1% to 34.7%) — 11.6 percentage points.
He faces Angels on Sunday Night Baseball pic.twitter.com/BZWZQnkTxc
— Sports Info Solutions (@SportsInfo_SIS) September 2, 2018
Cole didn’t all of a sudden morph into Roger Clemens, and it would be foolish to think last year’s elevated K rate is sustainable.
He likely isn’t as good as his 2018 numbers suggest, nor as mediocre as his first five seasons would lead you to believe. Cole’s true talent likely lies somewhere in the middle, which makes me want to short this high total.
Pick: Under 244.5 (-115)
Aaron Nola O/U 210.5 Strikeouts
This is a pure volume play, as Nola has recorded three straight seasons with a K/9 of at least 9.5. If he reaches the 200 inning plateau for the second straight season, he should have no problem eclipsing 210 strikeouts.
Beautiful curveball from Aaron Nola for the strikeout to Salvador Perez.
I love Nola Day. #AllStarGame pic.twitter.com/y07jSgAihq
— Pitcher List (@PitcherList) July 18, 2018
Nola has four above average pitches, including an elite curveball that forces an 18% swinging strike rate, one of the highest marks in the league.
He also boasts a 27% strikeout rate and has the luxury of pitching in the same division as the Mets and Marlins, two of the most strikeout-prone teams in the National League.
Pick: Over 210.5 (-115)
Stephen Strasburg O/U 185.5 Strikeouts
Once one of the most feared pitchers in baseball, Strasburg has battled a variety of injuries over the past several seasons, and has failed to exceed 148 innings pitched in three of the past four years.
Stephen Strasburg’s injury woes have struck again https://t.co/sOQDWqyKI2
— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) July 26, 2018
Most recently, shoulder issues forced him to miss almost two months in 2018, and when he returned there was a noticeable drop in his velocity. His average fastball has dropped almost a full two miles per hour since 2015, and even though he remains an elite talent, he hasn’t proven that he can consistently stay healthy enough to withstand a 162 game season.
Pick: Under 185.5 (-115)
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
