Mets vs Diamondbacks Picks, Predictions, Odds & Props to Bet (May 6)

• The New York Mets square off in the second of a three-game set against the Diamondbacks Tuesday
• New York is first in the NL East, while Arizona is fourth in the NL West
• See my Mets vs Diamondbacks picks and prop bets to wager on

The second game of the series between the New York Mets (23-13, 10-10 away, 14-21-1 O/U) and Arizona Diamondbacks (18-17, 8-9 home, 16-15-4 O/U) on Tuesday evening (9:40 pm ET) follows a tight 5-4 Mets victory in the opener on Monday. Starting pitchers are expected to be David Peterson for the road squad (3.06 ERA) and Zac Gallen for the home team (4.93 ERA).

Tuesday’s MLB odds have the Diamondbacks as the slight favorite in the middle duel of this three-game set at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona.

Mets vs Diamondbacks Odds

In the Mets vs Diamondbacks odds, Arizona is a -110 home moneyline favorite, giving the D-Backs a 52.38% implied win probability. The Mets come back at -106 on the moneyline (51.46% implied win probability) and +150 to win by more than one run. The game total is sitting at 9 runs with -115 on the over.

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New York took the first game of the series 5-4, aided by home runs by Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor, providing all the offense they needed. It was just their second win in the last six contests. Two of those defeats came at the hands of Arizona in a series April 29-May 1.

Starting Pitchers David Peterson vs Zac Gallen Stats

Mets starting pitcher David Peterson has picked right up where he left off last season, where he had a sparkling 2.90 ERA. In six starts on the campaign, his ERA sits at 3.06, which remarkably is the worst of the Mets spectacular rotation.

He’s been very consistent, throwing between 4.2 and 6 innings in his outings, allowing no more than three runs in any contest. After surrendering two home runs in his first start, he’s given up none in the five following performances. Twice he’s hit the nine strikeout threshold. The last time toeing the rubber, he faced the D-Backs, going five innings, allowing five hits and just one run and two strikeouts.

He’s facing an Arizona unit that’s fourth in RBI in the majors (175) and seventh in home runs (44). However, they haven’t scored more than four runs in six of seven contests.

The D-Backs counter with Zac Gallen, who has an ERA of 4.93, second worst of the Arizona rotation. Though it’s only been seven starts, it’s the worst ERA he’s posted in his seven-year career. He’s been quite inconsistent, surrendering at least four earned runs in three outings.

Perhaps he’s finding his groove, because his last start May 1st (against the Mets), Gallen went six strong, giving up two hits and just one run (a solo homer to Juan Soto), striking out eight in a 4-2 Diamondbacks triumph.

Mets vs Diamondbacks Picks, Props & Prediction

• Under 9 runs (-105)
• Juan Soto to record a hit (-240)

In five games this season as the underdog, the Mets have gone under the run total in all five outings. Their pitcher David Peterson has been solid, not giving up more than three runs in all six starts, and has given up four runs total in his last four starts to Arizona in 22 innings. Pair that with Zac Gallen having a great game versus NY last start, and I’m going under nine runs.

For a player prop, I’m zeroing in on Juan Soto to get a hit at -240, which is longer odds than the top-four players on the board (Ketel Marte, Pete Alonso, Corbin Carroll, Luisangel Acuna). Soto has a hit in five of his last six duels, including three hits his last two games against Arizona. The D-Backs are in the top-half of hits allowed in MLB.