Mets vs Giants Odds, Picks & Player Props for Sunday Night Baseball

• The red-hot New York Mets aim for a sweep of the struggling San Francisco Giants on Sunday
• The Mets have won six in a row while the Giants have lost eight of their last ten
• Check out the Mets vs Giants odds, plus my NYM vs SFG picks and predictions on July 27th

The New York Mets (61-44, 24-28 away, 46-56-2 O/U) and San Francisco Giants (54-51, 28-22 home, 48-54-2 O/U) meet at Oracle Park on July 27th, capping off a busy day of action on Sunday Night Baseball. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 pm PT/7:10 pm ET.

The pitching matchup features New York ace Kodai Senga against San Francisco’s Matt Gage, who will be making his first career start. in the finale of the three-game series. Mostly motivated by the mismatch in starters, the visitors are slight favorites in Sunday’s Mets vs Giants odds..

New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants Odds

New York is priced as a modest -125 moneyline favorite at BetMGM, with the hometown Giants at +105 in Sunday’s MLB odds. The vig-free implied probabilities give the Mets a 53.2% chance of winning, while the Giants sit at 46.8%. The run total at pitcher-friendly Oracle Park is sitting at 8.0 runs with -110 odds each way.

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The Mets dominated the first game of the series 8-1 on Friday and took a narrow 2-1 victory on Saturday behind a solid performance from David Petersen.

Senga has been nothing short of brilliant this season, baffling hitters with his signature “ghost fork” splitter and cementing his status as a true ace. Gage has only pitched 9.2 innings this season – and 29.1 total since debuting with the Blue Jays in 2022 – but he has yet to allow a single run (earned or unearned), including one scoreless inning against the Mets on Friday. Gage has a reasonably good 1.14 WHIP in his 9.2 innings, but just seven strikeouts and a well-below-average 17.9% K-rate.

SFG vs NYM Odds Movement

The betting market has seen significant movement in this matchup, primarily on the moneyline. The New York Mets opened as -138 favorites, but the line has since moved to -125 at most books. Conversely, the San Francisco Giants have shifted from +118 to just +105. This is a classic case of reverse line movement, where the line moves against the public-betting percentages. With over 71% of moneyline tickets on the Mets, this shift suggests that sharp, respected bettors are finding value on the underdog Giants.

The total has remained steady at 8.0 runs, though the juice has shifted slightly. It opened with the over favored at -115, but has since balanced out to -110 on both sides. The runline movement has been less dramatic, tightening slightly on the Giants +1.5.

The reverse line movement on the moneyline is the key takeaway, signaling a potential “trap” game where the struggling home team is seen as undervalued by sharps.

Mets vs Giants Starting Pitcher vs Batter History

The 32-year-old Senga only came to North America in 2023 and missed almost the entirety of 2024 due to injury, so there is limited history between the Japanese righty and the San Francisco hitters. That’s even more true with 29-year-old Gage and the Mets hitters, who have just three total at-bats against the Giants lefty.

New York Mets Career Statistics vs Matt Gage

Gage faced the heart of the Mets lineup when he pitched one inning in relief on Friday, sitting down Alonso, Lindor, and Soto. After getting Lindor to whiff, he elicited a pop-out to second from Soto and a grounder to shortstop from Alonso.

San Francisco Giants Career Statistics vs Kodai Senga

The Giants have 20 total at-bats against Senga over the last three seasons. Mike Yastrzemski has found success in his few at-bats, going 2-for-3. Matt Chapman is 1-for-1 with a double. Dom Smith is 1-for-4 with a double but has struckout twice.

Giants vs Mets Player Props

MLB player props as of July 27 at MGM.

Senga’s strikeout line of 5.5 looks very appealing at plus-money (+125). The Giants’ offense has been prone to strikeouts, and Senga boasts a 35% whiff rate on his splitter. He fanned nine Giants in his previous start against them this season. Given the matchup and his recent form (28 Ks in his last 19.1 IP), the Over is a strong play. His Earned Runs Allowed prop of Under 2.5 (-175) also aligns with his stellar ERA and the pitcher-friendly environment of Oracle Park.

Gage, expected to function as an opener, does not have any pitcher props available currently.

Mets vs Giants Picks & Prediction

The chasm between these two teams at the moment is vast, and it starts on the mound. Senga is pitching like one of the best in the league, boasting a sparkling 1.79 ERA and a “ghost fork” splitter that generates elite swing-and-miss rates. The Giants’ lineup, which has struggled to produce runs lately, is ill-equipped to handle a pitcher of his caliber, especially one who dominates with off-speed pitches. San Francisco counters with Matt Gage, who is making a spot start and is unlikely to pitch deep into the game, leaving the outcome in the hands of a taxed and inconsistent San Francisco bullpen.

The situational trends heavily favor the visitors. The Mets have been a machine when favored this season, going 53-30 (.639), and are 7-3 in their last ten games in that role. The Giants, on the other hand, have been abysmal lately, losing eight of their last ten and dropping six of their last seven contests following a loss. They have also lost their last four home games against teams with a winning record. While there’s some sharp action on the Giants, the fundamental matchup is too lopsided to ignore. The Mets’ offense is clicking, their bullpen is lights-out, and they have a bona fide ace on the mound.

Even in the pitcher-friendly confines of Oracle Park, the Mets have enough firepower to support Senga. I’m backing the hot team and the superior pitcher.

Picks:

• New York Mets moneyline (-125)
• Under 8.0 runs (-110)
• Senga over 5.5 Ks (+125)