Mets’ 2019 World Series Odds on Life Support at +4500; 3.5 Games Back in Wild-Card Race

Pete Alonso in the on-deck circle
Can Pete Alonso slug the Mets into the postseason? By slgckgc (Flickr) [CC License]
  • Mets now have just a 5% chance of making the playoffs, according to Baseball Reference
  • Remaining schedule is somewhat in their favor, with seven of 10 at home and seven against teams with losing records
  • At the end of a long season, New York’s roster is remarkably healthy, certainly compared with some of their rivals

If the New York Mets are going to make the playoffs for the first time since 2016, they are going to have to do it the hard way. With just 10 games left, the team sits 3.5 games out of the second wild-card spot and its 2019 World Series odds have plummeted as a result.

But despite the sense of impending doom that some may feel is currently lingering around Citi Field, there are some reasons for hope.

Odds To Win 2019 World Series – National League

Team Odds
Los Angeles Dodgers +250
Atlanta Braves +500
St. Louis Cardinals +1200
Washington Nationals +1600
Chicago Cubs +2000
Milwaukee Brewers +2500
New York Mets +4500
Philadelphia Phillies +5000
Arizona Diamondbacks +15000

*Odds taken on 09/20/19

According to Baseball Reference’s Simulator, the Mets have just a 5% chance of making the postseason, and those odds have shrunk considerably over the last month. Admittedly, that’s better than Philadelphia’s odds of 0.8%, but it pales in comparison with the likes of Milwaukee and the Chicago Cubs, who sit at 66% and 38% respectively.

But long odds or not, there are some reasons to believe in this team.

Scheduling Success

With the Mets currently 3.5 games out of the second wild-card spot heading into Friday’s games, it’s worth considering their remaining schedule and how it might factor into their chances of qualifying for the postseason.

New York has ten games remaining, but seven of those are at home, and the three-game road trip which begins Friday night is against the 72-81 Cincinnati Reds. The Mets are currently 2-2 against the Reds this season.

The other two series, both at Citi Field, include four games against the National League’s worst team, the 53-99 Miami Marlins, and three against the NL East-leading Atlanta Braves.

So far this season, the Mets are 11-4 against the Marlins  but just 5-11 against the Braves. Understandably, the Mets will be hoping that the Braves will have already locked themselves into the second seed in the NL by this series and will be resting players for the postseason.

Will Mets Depth Be Enough?

While New York’s remaining schedule could have been better, or worse, one bright spot is that the team is finally back to almost full health. As a result, the Mets have all five of their best starting pitchers available to them, as well as their top nine leaders in offensive Wins Above Replacement, according to Baseball Reference.

The team also has its two most valuable relievers available in Seth Lugo and Justin Wilson. That depth contrasts drastically with some of the other contenders for the second wild card.

In Chicago, the Cubs are missing Javier Baez along with relievers Brandon Kintzler and Brandon Morrow, while Cole Hamels was scratched from his last start with shoulder fatigue.

In Philadelphia, both Corey Dickerson and Andrew McCutchen were lost to season-ending injuries, Odubel Herrera was suspended for the remainder and one of their best pitchers, Jake Arrieta, has a right elbow issue.

And as everyone is aware, Milwaukee have lost the reigning NL MVP Christian Yelich to a broken kneecap.

Time will tell if the Mets can make their added depth work in their favor. The Mets battle hard but ultimately fall short of the postseason in 2019, and are not worth a long shot bet to win the World Series.

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