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Mike Trout Odds-On Favorite to Win 3rd AL MVP Award

Mike Trout
Mike Trout is off to another fast start in 2019. Photo by Keith Allison (flickr) [CC License].
  • Mike Trout’s 2019 MVP odds have improved from +220 to -150 in the last two and a half weeks
  • Will he win his third American League MVP title this season?
  • Are there better value bets on the board?

It’s not easy to live up to a 12-year, $432 million contract right out of the gates. However, Mike Trout has looked like he’s worth every penny. He currently leads the MLB in OPS at 1.508 and is second in slugging at .933. He also has five home runs and 12 RBI through 30 at bats.

2019 AL MVP Odds

Player 2019 AL MVP Odds at 5Dimes
Mike Trout (Angels) -150
Mookie Betts (Red Sox) +800
Aaron Judge (Yankees) +800
Alex Bregman (Astros) +1500
Gary Sanchez (Yankees) +2000

*Odds taken on 04/08/19

Will Trout Take Home Another AL MVP Title?

Yes, the stats listed above are very nice to look at, but again we must warn you, it is very early. If Trout was going to stay atop the list though, this would be the year to put some dough behind him.

You could argue that he was robbed last season by Mookie Betts (+800), but Betts did end the year with a better average and one more RBI. Those are two stats that Trout should be able to easily eclipse the Red Sox outfielder in this season.

With the loss of James Paxton and Edwin Diaz in Seattle, Trevor Cahill in Oakland, and Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton in Houston, he’ll have a much easier divisional go at the dish – which accounts for 76 games of the Angles’ schedule. In other words, it’s a big deal.

Trout has the shortest 2019 AL MVP odds by a landslide thanks in large part to his ability to hit the long ball. Since his magical 41-homer 2015 season (as seen above), his dinger per game average (let’s call that DPGA) has been very consistent (0.18-2016, 0.29-2017, 0.28-2019). If he can stay healthy, he undoubtedly can have a huge season.

Are There Better Value Bets Out There?

In short, maybe. In the last sentence of the preceding Trout propaganda we emphasized “If he can stay healthy”. That’s a big deal. Trout has missed 70 games over the past two seasons. His stats have still endured the test and while he did take home a Silver Slugger award last year, he hasn’t seen an MVP since 2016 because of his health.

Mike Trout has missed 70 games over the past two seasons.

Enter Aaron Judge (+800) and our dark horse pick Alex Bregman (+1500) to swoop in. Judge has better pitching in front of him this season which should ease the pressure. Meanwhile, in Houston, Bregman faces almost the polar opposite situation and will be relied upon even heavier for bat support.

The Astros mound weakened through the offseason and with the loss of Marwin Gonzalez and Evan Gattis, they’ll need Bregman to pull off some serious magic with the stick. If he can, you could be sitting pretty betting on our dark horse pick.

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