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Minnesota Twins vs Milwaukee Brewers Odds, Picks, Predictions & Starting Pitchers (Apr 2)

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in MLB Baseball

Updated Apr 2, 2024 · 8:09 AM PDT

Milwaukee Brewers catcher William Contreras swinging at a pitch
Mar 31, 2024; New York City, New York, USA; Milwaukee Brewers catcher William Contreras (24) hits an RBI double in the sixth inning against the New York Mets at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Minnesota Twins and Milwaukee Brewers play a Tuesday matinee at American Family Field
  • The Brewers send Jakob Junis to the mound for their home opener while the Twins counter with Louie Varland
  • See the Twins vs Brewers odds, picks, and starting pitcher stats for April 2

The still-perfect Milwaukee Brewers (3-0, 0-0 home, 1-2 O/U) play their home opener on Tuesday afternoon when they welcome the Minnesota Twins (2-1, 2-1 away, 1-2 O/U) to American Family Field at 3:10 pm CT/4:10 pm ET.

Both teams are reaching deep into their rotations for the fourth game of the season and the Twins vs Brewers odds show the game as a veritable pick’em.

Minnesota Twins vs Milwaukee Brewers Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
Minnesota Twins -105 -1.5 (+155) O 8.5 (-115)
Milwaukee Brewers -115 +1.5 (-190) U 8.5 (-105)

The Brewers are -115 on the moneyline in Tuesday’s MLB odds with the Twins at -105. The over/under has been set at 8.5. Both teams are 1-2 O/U so far in the young season.

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Odds as of April 2 at BetMGM. Lock in the BetMGM sign up promo to bet on MIN vs MIL. 

Milwaukee opened the season with a three-game sweep of the New York Mets in Queens, outscoring New York 14-8 in the process. The Brewers’ big offseason acquisition Rhys Hoskins is already paying dividends with one homer, four RBI, two walks, and a .930 OPS through 11 at-bats.

Christian Yelich, the NL MVP in 2018, is also off to a strong start, batting .445 with a homer, two RBI, and a 1.266 OPS in three games.

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Minnesota, which opened the season as -122 favorites to win the AL Central in the MLB division odds,  won its opening series in Kansas City. The Twins earned a 4-1 decision on Opening Day and a 5-1 win in game two before dropping the finale with the Royals in ugly fashion, 11-0.

Center fielder Byron Buxton has accounted for three of the teams eight RBI so far this season and is slashing .300/.417.500 with a .917 OPS. Third baseman Royce Lewis has Minnesota’s first and so far only home run.

Buxton is currently listed at +10000 in the AL MVP odds.  The ultra-talented 30-year-old would have shorter odds but for the fact that he hasn’t played more than 92 games since the 2017 season.

Twins vs Brewers Starting Pitchers

After mainly being used as a reliever by the Giants last year, Jakob Junis gets the start for the Brewers on Tuesday afternoon. His stint in the San Francisco bullpen was a positive one for the 31-year-old righty, who posted career-bests in 3.87 ERA and strikeout-to-walk ration (4.6 to 1) while also earning his first career save.

The former Royal has a sizable history against some of Minnesota’s elder statesmen, and it’s not auspicious for the Milwaukee starter. Junis has faced six of the Twins hitters at least six times in his career, and they are mashing .419 against him with a 1.206 OPS. Carlos Correa is 8-for-11 with two home runs and a double. Buxton is 4-for-9 with another two homers, and Carlos Santana is 8-for-18 with a homer, a double, and four walks.

Louie Varland vs Jakob Junis

4-3 Record 4-4
4.63 ERA 3.87
4.58 xERA 3.74
1.22 WHIP 1.29
25.1% SO% 26.2%

*All statistics in table from 2023 regular season. 

After pitching 26 solid innings in 2022 with a 3.81 ERA, Louie Varland upped that to 68 innings last season but his ERA jumped to 4.63 despite his WHIP remaining relatively unchanged (1.22 vs 1.23). Fangraphs suggests he was lucky in his limited sample size in 2022, when his xERA was 4.56, almost identical to his 4.58 xERA last year.

Varland really struggled with the longball last season, allowing 2.12 homers per nine innings. But none of the Milwaukee batters have ever faced the 26-year-old righty before, which often gives the pitcher a slight advantage the first time through the order.

Twins vs Brewers Prediction

The history between Junis and the Twins is a big concern. You’ll scarcely find a pitcher with worse stats against one specific team. But most of that is ancient history by this point. Junis didn’t face the Twins at all last season, and most of his appearances against Minnesota stem from his time with the Royals (2017-2021).

After joining the Giants, Junis raised his average fastball velocity from 91.1 to 94.0. He had a career-best 26.2 K% last season.

With an untested Varland starting for the Twins, I believe Junis is actually going to give the Brewers a slight edge in starters. And Milwaukee still possesses one of the best bullpens in the majors (3.40 ERA last year, second-best) even if Junis does run into some trouble.

Only four teams had more wins at home last year than Milwaukee (49-32) while the Twins were actually a game under .500 on the road (40-41), despite running away with the uninspiring AL Central by nine games.

MIN vs MIL pick: Brewers moneyline (-115)

Sascha Paruk’s 2024 MLB betting record: 4-0 (+3.25 units)

All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.

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