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Nationals vs Mets Odds & Picks (July 27)

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in MLB Baseball

Updated Jul 26, 2023 · 7:19 PM PDT

Josiah Gray throwing pitch
Jul 22, 2023; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Josiah Gray (40) pitches against the San Francisco Giants during the first inning at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Washington Nationals open a 4-game set vs the New York Mets Thursday at Citi Field
  • Washington has reeled off wins in five of their last six contests
  • Don’t miss the latest Nationals vs Mets picks and starting pitchers below

The least of the National League East collide for the final head-to-head set of the season, as the New York Mets (47-54, 23-22 home) host the Washington Nationals (43-59, 23-26 road).

Washington is on a nice streak, as a 5-4 win Wednesday afternoon gave them two out of three against the Colorado Rockies, and five wins in their last six outings.

New York, meanwhile, got shut down 3-1 by their cross-town rival Yankees, splitting a mini 2-game set. They have dropped four of their last six.

Action gets underway Thursday (July 27) at 7:10pm ET from Citi Field in Queens, NY. You can watch the game live on ESPN+.

Nationals vs Mets Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
Washington Nationals +170 +1.5 (-115) Ov 9 (-110)
New York Mets -200 -1.5 (-105) Un 9 (-110)

The MLB odds have the hometown Mets as 1.5-run favorites, and -200 on the moneyline, an implied win probability of 66.67%. The total is set at nine runs.

New York starts the day seven back of the third and final Wild Card berth. Their 23-22 home mark is tied for the 3rd-fewest home wins in the National League.

Assuming Washington doesn’t catch a major heater, the Nationals are in extended garbage time of their season. They are just 23-26 on the road on the year.

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Odds as of July 26 at DraftKings. Don’t forget to claim a DraftKings promo code to bet on Thursday’s Nationals vs Mets matchup. 

Probable Pitchers

Josiah Gray gets the nod for the Nats.

The righty is probably best known as one of the key returns when Washington dealt Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to the Dodgers in 2021.

Fresh off his all-star debut, the 25-year-old has had some impressive moments. Last outing was one of them, tying a season-best by going seven innings, surrendering one earned run while walking three and striking out four in Washington’s 10-1 win over the San Francisco Giants.

He’s faced New York once already this season, throwing 6.0 innings of four-hit ball, no earned runs, one walk and nine strikeouts in a 5-0 win on April 25.

While no Met has 10 at-bats against Gray, they’ve hit him hard in a small sample. Pete Alonso is hitting .333 with a home run and RBI. Second baseman Jeff McNeil is hitting .444 in nine at-bats, including a home run.

Rookie James Pham is the third Met that has taken Gray yard.

Gray vs Senga Stats

Josiah Gray
VS
Kodai Senga
7-8 Record 7-5
3.45 ERA 3.27
1.44 WHIP 1.26
.342 OBA .304
2.19 SO/W Ratio 2.50

New York counters with first-year man Kodai Senga.

The 30-year-old has been one of the few bright lights in a dim season for the Mets. The Japanese righty boasts a 7-5 mark and a respectable 3.27 ERA.

He’s picked up a win and a pair of no-decisions in July, including his last outing, a game New York eventually lost 5-4 to the Boston Red Sox.

Senga lasted just 3.1 innings, giving up three hits and two earned runs with one walk and three strikeouts.

It’s the second time this season he’ll face the Nats. Senga went five innings in the previous matchup, giving up five hits, two earned runs, while walking four and striking out seven in a 4-1 loss April 26.

No player on the Nationals has more than three at-bats vs Senga.

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Nationals vs Mets Betting Prediction

New York has struggled mightily as a home favorite, running an 18-17 record, a bottom-7 mark in the league. Washington hasn’t fared much better, going 23-26 as a road ‘dog  in 2023.

Nationals vs Mets 2023 H2H Results

Date Away Team Home Team Result
May 15 Mets Nationals WAS, 10-3
May 14 Mets Nationals NYM, 8-2
May 13 Mets Nationals WAS, 3-2
May 12 Mets Nationals NYM, 3-2
April 27 Nationals Mets NYM, 9-8
April 26 Nationals Mets WAS, 4-1
April 25 Nationals Mets WAS, 5-0

Offense has not been a problem for the Nationals on this recent fun-run, scoring at least five in every game, averaging 6.3 a contest over their last six games. Their team .261 average ranks sixth in the bigs.

New York is putting up just 4.47 runs per game, and are tied for 19th in total runs scored. The Nationals might be the remedy, however, as they own the 4th-worst team ERA at 4.95.

That being said, Washington is on a nice streak, and Gray has had success against this lineup. Still, it’s hard to rely on a team with the 2nd-worst record in the NL. For that reason, we’ll target the total.

Pick: UNDER 9 runs (-110)

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