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Odds Favor Another Home Run Topping 501 Feet Hit in 2019

Avisail Garcia
Avisail Garcia had one of the longest home runs of the season in 2018. Photo by Keith Allison (flickr) [CC License].
  • Just two home runs measuring over 501 feet have been hit over the past three MLB seasons
  • Coors Field provided the backdrop for the last two home runs hit over 500 feet
  • NL parks led the way last season, with four of the 10 longest balls of 2018 getting hit at Chase Field and Wrigley Field

A home run measured at over 500 feet has been hit in two of the past three MLB seasons, and that trend is expected to continue during the upcoming campaign, with the odds of the longest dinger of 2019 measuring OVER 501 feet pegged at a short -120 on the MLB season props at BookMaker.

2019 Longest Home Run Distance Odds

Longest Home Run Distance During 2019 MLB Season Odds at BookMaker
Over 501 feet -120
Under 501 feet -110

Coors Field Lives Up to Reputation as Hitter’s Ballpark

Colorado shortstop Trevor Story launched the longest home run of the 2018 in early September, connecting on an Andrew Suarez pitch that traveled 505 feet into the stands at Coors Field to lead the Colorado Rockies to a 5-3 victory over the visiting San Francisco Giants.

Story’s blast, the first of three in that contest, marked the first home run to travel beyond 500 feet since Giancarlo Stanton connected on a 504-foot bomb in the Miami Marlins’ 12-6 loss to the Rockies on August 6th, 2016. Coors Field also provided the backdrop for Stanton’s moon shot, further extending a trend that saw eight of the 10 longest home runs of 2018 hit at National League parks.

Longest Home Runs of 2018 MLB Season

Date Player Team Opponent Stadium Distance
September 5 Trevor Story Rockies Giants Coors Field 505 ft.
April 20 Franchy Cordero Padres Diamondbacks Chase Field 489 ft.
August 23 Javier Baez Cubs Reds Wrigley Field 481 ft.
April 3 Avisail Garcia White Sox Blue Jays Rogers Centre 481 ft.
April 3 Marcell Ozuna Cardinals Brewers Miller Park 479 ft.
May 1 Christian Walker Diamondbacks Dodgers Chase Field 479 ft.
August 5 Franmil Reyes Padres Cubs Wrigley Field 477 ft.
May 31 Matt Olson A’s Rays Oakland Coliseum 475 ft.
May 4 Bryce Harper Nationals Phillies Nationals Park 473 ft.
June 5 Carlos Gonzalez Rockies Reds Great American Ball Park 473 ft.

Most 2018 Long Balls Hit Out of National League Parks

While it is unlikely to surprise baseball fans that Coors Field has been the site of the last two dingers hit longer than 500 feet, Chase Field and Wrigley Field are the only stadiums to appear more than once on the last year’s hit parade.

San Diego Padres outfielder Franchy Cordero finished second to Story with a 489-foot long ball at Chase Field in a 4-1 win over Arizona on April 20th, while Diamondbacks infielder Christian Walker followed up just 10 days later on a pinch-hot blast that traveled 479 feet.

The Padres got back into the action on August 23rd, with Franmil Reyes going 477 feet in San Diego’s 10-6 win at Wrigley Field, while Javier Baez hit the season’s third-longest home run at 481 feet in a 7-1 home victory over Cincinnati on August 23rd.

Seven of last season’s 10 longest home runs were hit by June 5th.

If any player is to join the 500-foot club in 2019, it looks increasingly likely it will happen early in the season. Seven of last season’s 10 longest home runs were hit by June 5th, with five of those being recorded by May 5th.

Rockies, Cubs Strong Candidates to Lead Hit Parade in 2019

With the Rockies and Cubs both poised as strong contenders to return to the MLB Postseason again this season, balls may fly out of both Coors Field and Wrigley Field. Story, Nolan Arenado, and Charlie Blackmon combined to hit over 100 home runs last season, and lead a Rockies squad pegged as a -130 bet to win over 84.5 games this season.

Following an injury-plagued campaign in 2018, the Cubs will benefit at the plate from the healthy return of slugger Kris Bryant, and are a threat to return to the top of the NL Central standings.

Still a Rare Feat, 500-foot Home Run Remains Unlikely in 2019

But even with the debate continuing over whether juiced balls are producing more long balls, and more than 5,500 home runs being hit in each of the past three MLB season (including a record 6,105 in 2017), hitting a home run that travels over 500 feet is a rare feat.

As a result, a -110 wager on the longest home run of the season measuring UNDER 501 feet likely provides the most value heading into the new season.

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