Odds Indicate NL MVP Is a Two-Horse Race Between Bellinger & Yelich

• Cody Bellinger leads the league with a 6.6 WAR
• Bellinger has already surpassed his home run total from last season
• Christian Yelich leads the league in home runs (31) and slugging percentage (.713)

The National League MVP race is similar to the National League Cy Young race: the odds suggest it’s a two-horse race. For the MVP award, it looks like it’s down to Cody Bellinger and Christian Yelich. They are the only two on the board inside of 5/1 for NL MVP odds. Which of the two is the best bet?

2019 NL MVP Odds

*Odds taken 7/2/19

The Case for Cody Bellinger

Bellinger has been nothing short of phenomenal this season. We already knew he was an excellent player before – an All-Star – but now he’s elevated his game to MVP status. He batted .260 last season with 25 home runs and 76 RBI’s. He’s batting .346 this season with 27 home runs already along with 67 RBI’s. He’s accomplished that in half the games.

He leads all hitters with a 6.6 WAR, which is a number that explains his value to the team. He’s second in the league in OBP and OPS, so there’s very little to pick about.

If you’re fleshing it out for the rest of the season, though, one thing you might want to take note of is that he’s faded a little bit by the month. His batting average has dipped in each progressive month and so has his OPS. He still hit .272 in June with seven home runs, 15 RBI’s and had an OPS of .967. Still, that’s dipped from the .416/10/1.348 he put up in April.

The Case for Christian Yelich

There’s no question that Bellinger is having an MVP-caliber season but Yelich is actually besting him in a few categories, so where does that put him? Sure, his WAR (4.6) is slightly lower and so is his batting average (.330) but Yelich leads the league with home runs (31), slugging percentage (.713) and he has 18 stolen bases.

We’ll have to see how the season plays out but as mentioned, it does look like Bellinger is tapering off but that isn’t the case with Yelich. He had an OPS of 2.250 in March, 1.125 in April, .935 in May, 1.149 in June and then 1.850 so far in July. Outside of a .247 average in May, he’s batted at least .333 in every other month.

Value With Others?

There are a number of other players who are in the race – like Pittsburgh’s Josh Bell, Atlanta’s Freddie Freeman and Colorado’s Nolan Arenado – but they are really far behind. It’s hard not to like Bell, who has cranked 25 home runs and has an OPS of 1.035 but keep in mind that he has 318 at-bats. That’s 23 more than Bellinger and 22 more than Yelich.

Also, Bell team’s is below .500, so he’d have to really outshine Bellinger and Yelich to win the award and he’s not doing that. As for guys like Freeman and Arenado, they’re having nice years but their production is inferior to the aforementioned two. They have a lot of work to do to catch up.

What’s the Best Bet?

I’m willing to take a flier with Yelich here as Bellinger appears to be fading a little bit. If he doesn’t continue to fade, Yelich has almost no chance as the Dodgers are 18 games above .500 while the Brewers are just six. However, Yelich has been more consistent and he’s done this before.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bc1g-560nwk

He was much better after the All-Star break last year, cranking 25 of his 36 home runs and posting a 1.219 OPS after the break, so I’m expecting more of the same. At +225, take a flier on him.