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Odds Suggest Milwaukee Brewers Will Miss Playoffs in 2019

Milwaukee Brewers OF Christian Yelich.
Bovada is offering odds against reigning NL MVP Christian Yelich and the Milwaukee Breweres making the playoffs in 2019. Photo by Ian D'Andrea (Wikimedia Commons) [CC License].
  • Bovada is offering odds against the Milwaukee Brewers making the 2019 MLB playoffs
  • At the same time, the sportsbook has lowered the odds of the Brewers winning the World Series from +1400 to +1000
  • The Brewers made the playoffs once in back-to-back years in 1981-82

Bovada can’t seem to get a handle on what exactly the Milwaukee Brewers are brewing up for the 2019 Major League Baseball season.

The sportsbook is offering a prop wager with odds favoring the defending National League Central Division champion Brewers to miss the MLB playoffs in 2019. You can see how all 30 teams stack up at our 2019 MLB Playoff Odds Tracker.

Will the Milwaukee Brewers Make the MLB Playoffs in 2019?

Will the Brewers Make the 2019 MLB Playoffs? Odds at Bovada
Yes +150
No -180

*Odds taken 04/05/19

At the same time, Bovada has lowered the Brewers’ odds of winning the 2019 World Series to +1000. Milwaukee was +1500 as recently as April 1st.

Among NL teams, only the Los Angeles Dodgers (+700) and Philadelphia Phillies (+750) are given better odds of winning the 2019 Fall Classic.

Brewers Off to Fast Start

Racing through the first week of the season to a 6-1 start, Milwaukee is 3-0 at home and 3-1 on the road. The Brewers certainly are offering every indication that they intend to pick up where they left off.

Four games out of first place on September 7th, the Brewers closed 16-5 to tie the Chicago Cubs for first place in the NL Central. Milwaukee finished with seven straight wins, and went 9-1 in the last 10 games.

The Brewers beat the Cubs in a one-game playoff for the NL Central crown. They rolled along until Game 7 of the NLCS before succumbing to the Dodgers.

Is it Sustainable?

Last season was Milwaukee’s first in the playoffs since 2011. The analytics on their 2018 season show that the Brewers outplayed their run differential by five games. Numbers like that tend to even out the following year.

Likewise, NL MVP Christian Yelich saw significant upward spikes in his power numbers. He went from 21 homers to 36, and his slugging percentage jumped to .598 from .436. His percentage of home runs on fly balls vaulted to 35.0 from a career average of 20.3. Will he maintain those lofty figures, or come back to earth some this year?

Milwaukee hasn’t been a playoff team in consecutive seasons since 1981-82

Another issue could be OF Ryan Braun. He’s 35 and his OPS+ has decreased in each of the past three seasons.

The Division Will Be Tough

The NL Central is among the deepest divisions in baseball. The Cubs are just three years removed from a World Series win. The St. Louis Cardinals were a different team when Mike Shildt took over as manager. They added Paul Goldschmidt and Andrew Miller during the offseason.

The Cincinnati Reds figure to be much improved and the Pittsburgh Pirates are no easy out.

What the Numbers Say

The Sportsline Projection model pegs the Brewers with a 23.6% chance of repeating as division champs. They are given a 53.%  chance of making the playoffs.

Milwaukee hasn’t been a playoff team in consecutive seasons since 1981-82.

As good as they’ve started, we just don’t see the postseason happening for the Brew Crew in 2019.

Pick: No (-180)

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