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Ohtani Stumbles! Should His Cy Young & MVP Odds Do the Same?

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in MLB Baseball

Updated Apr 25, 2018 · 4:16 PM PDT

Shohei Ohtani at the plate against Cleveland.
What does the future hold for Angels pitcher/DH Shohei Ohtani, who took the MLB by storm in his first two weeks but has slowed considerably since then? Image by MLB.com (YouTube).
  • Shohei Ohtani has come crashing back to earth after his torrid start.
  • His new 2018 projections are a lot more conservative than they used to be.
  • Does he still have a real chance to win the AL Cy Young or MVP?

To say that Shohei Ohtani’s MLB career got off to a fast start is like saying Jon Lester has a bad pickoff move.

Two weeks into the season, Ohtani, the first real dual-threat pitcher/hitter since Babe Ruth, was batting .389 with three homers and an absurd 1.310 OPS.

He was also 2-0 as a pitcher with a 2.08 ERA and .093 opponent average; his fastball was nearing the century mark on the radar gun and his splitter was untouchable, leading to 18 strikeouts in his first 13 innings and a near no-hitter against the A’s.

The internet lost its mind.

Ohtani’s heroics led to our very own Ryan Murphy taking endless heat for predicting that his Spring Training struggles would continue into the regular season. But fast forward two more weeks and Ryan looks a lot more prescient than he once did.

Ohtani hasn’t hit a home run in his last seven games while striking out eight times in that span. His batting average has dropped nearly 60 points. On the mound, he’s gone just 7.1 innings combined in his last two starts with a fat 8.59 ERA and .357 opponent average.

His fastball is regularly hitting 100 mph now, but he’s struggling to throw his splitter and slider for strikes, which is allowing batters to sit on his dead-straight heater. And they are turning on it with aplomb, evidenced by the splits between his first two starts and his last two starts.

Shohei Ohtani’s first two starts:

OPPONENT (DATE) INNINGS HITS STRIKEOUTS WALKS EARNED RUNS
at Oakland (April 1) 6.0 3 6 1 3
vs Oakland (April 8) 7.0 1 12 1 0
Combined   13.0 18  3

Shohei Ohtani’s next two starts:

OPPONENT (DATE) INNINGS HITS STRIKEOUTS WALKS EARNED RUNS
vs Boston (April 17) 2.0 4 1 2 3
at Houston (April 24) 5.1 6 7 5 4
Combined  7.1 10 8 7 7

It was preposterous to proclaim Ohtani an AL MVP and Cy Young favorite two weeks into the season. Is it equally preposterous to write him off after an equally small sample size of poor performances?

No, not when it comes to end-of-season hardware.

Ohtani is still very young (23) and the control issues he’s exhibited lately are likely to continue, especially considering that he’s also dealing with a blister on his throwing hand. He’ll mix in virtuoso performances against overly aggressive hitters with duds against patient lineups.

That won’t be enough to enter into the Cy Young conversation, and that’s before factoring in the Angels’ six-man rotation, which will likely limit Ohtani to about 25-28 starts.

At the plate, he should remain an above average hitter, but his swing is far from perfect — he can be long through the zone and has trouble getting around on inside fastballs — and he may struggle to get into a rhythm with his three-on/three-off DH schedule.

Based on everything he’s shown so far, what are the realistic projections for his rookie season as a whole? Let’s update the odds and over/unders.

*All odds and over/unders below are based SBD’s own analysis. For Ohtani-related props you can actually bet on, visit the MLB specials section at any of our top online sportsbooks.

Shohei Ohtani 2018 Pitching Over/Unders

STATISTIC TO-DATE OVER/UNDER
Innings Pitched 20.1 160.5 O/U
Wins 2 12.5 O/U
Strikeouts 18 171.5 O/U
ERA 4.43 4.55 O/U
WHIP 1.131 1.199 O/U

The truth of Ohtani’s pitching lies somewhere in between his hot start and current dip. He’s faced two of the toughest lineups in the majors in his last two starts (Boston and Houston). When he gets his turn against the AL’s bottom-feeders, including division rival Texas, more quality starts will follow.

He should also gain back some control now that his blister has healed.

Shohei Ohtani 2018 Hitting Over/unders

STATISTIC TO-DATE OVER/UNDER
At-Bats 42 282.5 O/U
Batting Average .333 .285 O/U
Strikeouts 12 88.5 O/U
Home Runs 3 16.5 O/U

Ohtani, who was prized more as a pitcher than a hitter when he was being courted by basically all 30 MLB teams this offseason, has surpassed expectations at the plate. He’s refined his approach (no more big leg kick) in a way that’s allowing him to make more contact and, at 6’4, 205 pounds, the power is still coming pretty naturally.

YouTube video

Shohei Ohtani 2018 Award Odds

AWARD ODDS
AL Cy Young 32/1
AL MVP 29/1
Both AL MVP & AL Cy Young 1001/1

Ohtani leapt to the top of MVP and Cy Young props at numerous online betting sites when Sho-mania was at its peak. If you see short odds out there still, do not take them. Ohtani has a good chance to win AL Rookie of the Year, but not the Cy Young or MVP.

The fact that he’s teammates with Mike Trout makes MVP all the more implausible. The two-time winner has proven that he can almost single-handedly generate enough offense to keep a team in the playoff race. Even if Ohtani is superb, his candidacy will be hampered by vote-splitting.

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