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Opening Tigers vs Guardians Game 3 Odds & Starting Pitchers

Sascha Paruk

By Sascha Paruk in MLB Baseball

Published:


nd Guardians pitcher Tim Herrin celebrates after recording an out
Oct 1, 2025; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians pitcher Tim Herrin (29) reacts after striking out Detroit Tigers outfielder Wenceel Pérez (not pictured) in the seventh inning during game two of the Wildcard round for the 2025 MLB playoffs at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-Imagn Images
  • Cleveland and Detroit meet in a decisive Game 3 on Thursday
  • Slade Cecconi starts for the Guardians against Jack Flaherty for the Tigers
  • See the opening Tigers vs Guardians Game 3 odds and starting pitcher matchup

The Detroit Tigers (88-76, 42-41 away) had chance after chance to put away the Cleveland Guardians (89-75, 47-36 home) on Wednesday, but they went just 1-for-14 with runners in scoring position, which allowed Brian Rocchio to break a 1-1 tie in the bottom of the 8th with a solo home run that propelled Cleveland to a 6-1 win.

The Guardian victory sets up a winner-take-all Game 3 on Thursday (12:08 pm CT/1:08 pm ET) at Progressive Field in Cleveland. The opening Tigers vs Guardians odds favor the home team completing the comeback, but only slightly.

DET Tigers vs CLE Guardians Game 3 Odds

Bet TypeDETCLE
Moneyline-107-113
Runline-1.5 (+169)+1.5 (-209)
TotalO 7.0 (-102)U 7.0 (-119)

The Guardians have opened as -113 favorites on the moneyline, with the Tigers coming back as hyper-slim -107 underdogs. The total is 7.0, up half a run from Games 1 and 2.

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Odds as of Oct. 1 at DraftKings.

Cleveland’s win improved their World Series odds from +4500 to +2800. Detroit’s championship odds faded from +1325 to +1700.

Tigers vs Guardians Game 3 Starting Pitchers

FLAHERTYSTATCECCONI
8-15W/L7-7
4.64ERA4.30
1.28WHIP1.19
4.03xERA5.23
27.6%K%20.0%

Cecconi has a better ERA and WHIP than his counterpart Flaherty, but the Tiger starter has better peripherals across the board, with a 4.03 xERA, 3.85 FIP, and 3.69 xFIP. Cecconi has a 5.23 xERA, 4.64 FIP, and 4.09 xFIP.

Flaherty also has better career numbers against the Cleveland hitters, who have just a .205 batting average and .631 OPS (five home runs) in 112 cumulative at-bats against the 29-year-old righty.

Coincidentally, each of his final two regular-season starts came against these same Guardians. He combined to go 9.1 innings while allowing four earned runs on eight hits and four walks. He’s been much better at home this season than on the road (4.18 ERA in 92.2 IP vs 5.27 ERA in 68.1 IP).

YouTube video

Cecconi has allowed just a .237 average to the Detroit hitters in 38 at-bats, but a .793 OPS thanks to three homers and a double. He made just one start against the Tigers in the regular season, all the way back on May 23rd, throwing 6.0 solid innings, allowing just one run on five hits and two walks with six Ks in a 3-1 Cleveland win.

Cecconi made two postseason appearances with the Diamondbacks in 2023, pitching two scoreless innings, allowing two hits and no walks.

YouTube video

Flaherty has taken part in four postseasons with three different teams (Cardinals, Orioles, Dodgers) and has been downright bad, especially in the last two. All told, he has a 5.36 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in 47.0 playoff innings. That includes a 7.36 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 22.0 innings with the Dodgers in last year’s championship run.

Bookmark SBD’s MLB public betting splits page to see where the money is going in Tigers/Guardians Game 3.

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Sascha Paruk
Sascha Paruk

Managing Editor

Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.

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