Padres vs Dodgers Player Props, Odds & Picks for Ohtani’s First Start Since 2023
By Sascha Paruk in MLB Baseball
Published:
- Shohei Ohtani is back on the mound tonight for the first time since August 2023
- Ohtani isn’t expected to be more than an opener against the San Diego Padres on Monday
- See the Padres vs Dodgers player props, odds, and picks for June 16
A moment the baseball world has been waiting nearly two years for has finally arrived: two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani will be on the mound for the first time since having Tommy John surgery in September 2023. Ohtani will have a difficult matchup out of the gate, as his Los Angeles Dodgers (43-29, 25-12 home, 41-28-1 O/U) host Dylan Cease and the San Diego Padres (39-31, 18-19 away, 29-39-2 O/U) at Dodger Stadium at 7:10 pm PT on Monday night.
The odds still favor the Dodgers by a not-insignificant margin, despite Cease dominating the LA hitters just six days ago in an 11-1 San Diego victory.
San Diego Padres vs LA Dodgers Odds
The Dodgers, who are a stellar 25-12 at home this season, are -155 moneyline favorites in Monday’s MLB odds. The Padres come back as +130 road underdogs. San Diego is a game under .500 in away games this season (18-19). The total is sitting at 9.0 runs with the under slightly favored at -115.
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Ohtani, the NL home run leader (25) and the odds-on favorite in the NL MVP odds, has by far the shortest odds to hit a home run tonight at +220. Fernando Tatis Jr (.277 average, .829 OPS, 13 HR) leads the Padres player at +320.
Starting Pitchers: Cease vs Ohtani
*Ohtani’s stats from 2023 season with LA Angels.
The table below lists the player props (hits, RBI, home runs, total bases) for the expected starters on each team. They are listed in descending order of their home run odds (third column).
SD vs LAD Player Props (June 1)
MLB player props from FanDuel (hitters) and DraftKings (pitchers).
Ohtani also has the shortest odds to drive in at least one run (+125), while San Diego first baseman Luis Arraez (.274 average, .702 OPS, 3 HR) has the shortest odds to record a hit (-330).
Manny Machado (.316 average, .876 OPS, 10 HR) has the shortest odds among Padres players to record an RBI. Machado is usually in the three hole for San Diego while Tatis Jr has been leading off all season with Arraez right behind him.
Padres vs Dodgers Picks & Prediction
- Padres moneyline (+132 at FanDuel)
- Over 8.5 (-125 at FanDuel)
- Ohtani 1+ RBI (+135 at bet365)
- Cease under 6.5 Ks (-150 at bet365)
Ohtani isn’t expected to be more than an opener tonight, which is more than understandable given his 22-month layoff from pitching. That isn’t great news for a Los Angeles team whose bullpen is struggling. The Dodgers currently sit 19th in the majors in bullpen ERA (4.09) and 15th in FIP (3.84). The Dodger pen has also been heavily taxed, leading the majors in innings (304.1, 14 more than the next-highest team).
The last time the Dodgers faced the Padres with an opener – which was just six days ago – they were hammered 11-1. Lou Trivino made it out of the first unscatched but Matt Sauer was hammered for nine runs on 13 hits and three walks over 4.2 innings.
I don’t expect Cease to be as dominant as he was six days ago, when he pitched seven shutout innings with 11 Ks, allowing five walks but just three hits. I already added Ohtani to my home runs picks for today. But I can’t back the Dodgers at short odds if Ohtani is only going to account for, at the very most, four or five outs before turning it over to a struggling bullpen.
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Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
