Upcoming Match-ups

Phillies vs Marlins Odds, Lines & Picks (Aug. 3)

John Perrotto

by John Perrotto in MLB Baseball

Updated Aug 2, 2023 · 9:41 PM PDT

Dane Myers celebrating with teammates in dugout
Jul 9, 2023; Miami, Florida, USA; Miami Marlins right fielder Dane Myers (54) celebrates with Miami Marlins right fielder Jesus Sanchez (7) after hitting a home run against the Philadelphia Phillies during the third inning at loanDepot Park. Mandatory Credit: Rich Storry-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Phillies are -126 road favorites over the Marlins on Thursday
  • Michael Lorenzen (5-7, 3.58) will pitch for the Phillies against the Marlins’ Johnny Cueto (0-2, 5.06)
  • A look at the Phillies vs Marlins matchup and odds can be found below with a prediction

The Marlins will try to gain a split of a four-game series when they host the Philadelphia Phillies at 12:10pm ET Thursday at loanDepot Park.

The Marlins (58-51, 34-23 home) rallied to beat the Phillies 9-8 in 12 innings on Wednesday night after losing three of their previous four games. The Phillies (58-50, 30-30 road) had won five of their past seven games.

MLB Network will broadcast the game.

Phillies vs Marlins Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
Philadelphia Phillies -126 -1.5 (+130) Over 8.5 (-104)
Miami Marlins +108 +1.5 (-156) Under 8.5 (-118)

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Phillies vs Marlins Probable Pitchers

The Phillies are -126 road favorites on the moneyline over the Marlins on Thursday in the MLB odds, giving them a 55.75% implied win probability. Philadelphia has +1900 World Series championship odds and Miami is listed at +5500.

The loanDepot Park roof will likely be closed with the high temperature expected to be 88 degrees, a 101-degree heat index, and a 60% chance of thunderstorms.

Michael Lorenzen (5-7, 3.58) is scheduled to make his Phillies debut when he gets the start two days after being acquired from the Detroit Tigers in a trade. Johnny Cueto (0-2, 5.06) is expected to start for the Marlins.

Lorenzen will be pitching on six days of rest and Cueto on four.

Lorenzen vs Cueto Stats

Michael Lorenzen
Johnny Cueto
5-7 Record 0-2
3.58 ERA 5.06
4.07 xERA 3.43
1.10 WHIP 0.88
3.07 SO/W 3.50

Lorenzen lost his final start with the Tigers last Thursday, falling to the Los Angeles Angels in Detroit when he gave up three runs and five hits in five innings with seven strikeouts and one walk. Lorenzen had a strong July, going 3-1 with a 1.14 ERA in four starts and pitching in his first All-Star Game.

Lorenzen has a 2-2 career record versus the Marlins with a 2.72 ERA in 15 games (four starts).

On the road this season, Lorenzen is 2-3 with a 3.17 ERA in eight starts and has a 2-3 record and 4.09 ERA in nine starts during the day. The Tigers went 8-10 in Lorenzen’s 18 starts and he recorded eight quality starts.

Cueto remained winless when he lost to the Tigers on Saturday in Miami. He pitched six innings and allowed four runs, four hits and one walk while striking out five.

In five career starts against the Phillies, Cueto is 2-1 with a 3.23 ERA.

Cueto has a 0-2 record with a 6.23 ERA in three starts at home this season. He is 0-1 with a 3.00 ERA in three games (two starts). Cueto has recorded one quality start in three outings and the Marlins have lost all three games.

Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers

Phillies Batters Batting Average vs Johnny Cueto
Edmundo Sosa .667
Jake Cave .500
Bryce Harper .333
Kyle Schwarber .333
Trea Turner .222
Nick Castellanos .200
Alec Bohm .000
Brandon Marsh .000
J.T. Realmuto .000
Marlins Batters Batting Average vs Michael Lorenzen
Luis Arraez 1.000
Joey Wendle .500
Yuli Gurriel .333
Jesus Sanchez .250
Avisail Garcia .200
Jorge Soler .167
Jon Berti .000
Jazz Chisholm Jr. .000
Bryan De la Cruz .000
Jacob Stallings .000

Phillies designated hitter Kyle Schwarber is 3-for-9 with three home runs off Cueto and outfielder Jake Cave is 3-for-6 with two doubles. However, catcher J.T. Realmuto is hitless in seven at-bats.

Lorenzen has been tough on Marlins catcher Jacob Stallings, who is 0-for-11, and Jorge Soler, who is 1-for-6 with a double and five strikeouts.

Phillies vs Marlins Betting Outlook

Jesus Sanchez’s RBI single in the bottom of the 12th inning gave the Marlins a 9-8 victory over the Phillies Wednesday night, rallying from a 5-0 deficit.

Sanchez had three hits and two RBIs for the Marlins. Josh Bell had a four-hit game that included a home run, a day after being acquired from the Cleveland Guardians in a trade.

Jake Burger, who came to the Marlins from the Chicago White Sox at Tuesday’s trade deadline, had two hits. Bell and Jon Berti each drove in two runs for Miami, which also got homers from Jazz Chisholm Jr and Jorge Soler.

The Marlins optioned infielder/outfielder Garrett Hampson prior to the game to clear a roster spot for Bell.

The Phillies were led by Alec Bohm’s four hits and three RBIs. Bryson Stott had three hits, Nick Castellanos added two hits and Brandon Marsh belted a two-run homer.

Realmuto missed his second straight game with a cut on his right hand and is questionable for Thursday. Infielder Rodolfo Castro joined the team Wednesday, a day after being acquired from the Pittsburgh Pirates in a trade, and left-handed reliever Andrew Vazquez was designated for assignment.

Phillies vs Marlins Last 10 Games

Date Home Team Away Team Score
8/2/23 Marlins Phillies MIA, 9-8
8/1/23 Marlins Phillies PHI, 3-1
7/31/23 Marlins Phillies PHI, 4-2
7/9/23 Marlins Phillies MIA, 7-3
7/8/23 Marlins Phillies MIA, 5-3
7/7/23 Marlins Phillies PHI, 4-3
4/12/23 Phillies Marlins MIA, 3-2
4/11/23 Phillies Marlins MIA, 8-4
4/10/23 Phillies Marlins PHI, 15-3
9/15/22 Marlins Phillies MIA, 5-3

The Marlins lead the season series 5-4 after the Phillies went 12-7 last year.

Phillies vs Marlins Prediction

Lorenzen has been pitching as well as at any point in his career. Look for him to transfer that performance from the Tigers to the Phillies in his debut with his new time.

Pick: Phillies ML (-126) 

Season Record: 36-15 (+18.0 units) ML; 2-2 (0.0 units) RL; 2-1 (+1.0 unit) O/U; 0-1 (-1.0 unit) same-game parlays; 2-2 (+3.6) player props; 41-20 (+21.6 units) overall.

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