Phillies vs Padres Game 1 Predictions, Odds & Starting Pitchers
By Robert Duff in MLB Baseball
Published:
- The San Diego Padres are -127 home favorites over the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 1 of the NLCS on Tuesday, October 18
- Philadelphia is in the NLCS for the first time since 2010, while the Padres are here for the first time since 1998
- See the Game 1 Phillies vs Padres predictions, odds and starting pitchers in the story below
In the NLCS, the San Diego Padres (5-2, 2-0 home) and Philadelphia Phillies (5-1, 3-1 away) are both filling the role of Dante, the forlorn lead in the cult classic Clerks trilogy. They’re not even supposed to be here today.
Oddsmakers were projecting a Los Angeles Dodgers vs Atlanta Braves NCLS for the third year in a row. It would’ve been a series pitting the last two World Series winners against each other.
Instead, MLB bettors are getting a best-of-seven set between a Phillies franchise that hasn’t won the World Series since 2009 and a Padres team that hasn’t won the World Series since … ever.
In Game 1, it’s the Padres that are the betting favorites. San Diego is set as -127 home chalk for Game 1.
Phillies vs Padres Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies | +110 | +1.5 (-225) | O 6.5 (-124) |
| San Diego Padres | -127 | -1.5 (+185) | U 6.5 (+105) |
Odds as of October 17 at Barstool Sportsbook. Get a Barstool Sportsbook bonus code.
At moneyline odds of -125, the Padres have an implied probability of victory of 55.56% in the MLB betting line. A successful $10 wager on San Diego would create a payout of $18.00.
First pitch at PETCO Park goes at 8:03pm ET on Tuesday, October 18. The weather forecast is calling for cloudy skies with 3 mph wind and a temperature of 86 degrees. San Diego is a -125 favorite to take this set and advance in the MLB playoff bracket. The Padres winning the series in seven games is the +420 chalk in a series correct score wager.
MLB betting trends are displaying that bettors are leaning toward the Phillies heavily to win Game 1. Philadelphia is drawing 61% of handle and 54% of bets in the runline public splits. Moneyline bettors are banking on the Phillies with 57% of handle and 53% of bets. On the total, 81% of handle and 86% of bets are leaning toward the over.
In the World Series odds, the Padres are second in this betting market at +325. The Phillies are the third betting choice at +325.
Philadelphia vs San Diego Probable Pitchers
In the MLB lineups, right-hander Zack Wheeler is displaying declines across the board in his 2022 numbers. The 2021 NL Cy Young Award runner-up saw his wins slump from 14 to 12, while innings pitched dropped off from 213.1 to 153. Strikeouts slipped from 247 to 163. Both of those latter numbers led the NL last season.
Zack Wheeler bump day pic.twitter.com/FIH5GSW7uP
— Explaining The Phillies (@ExplainingPhils) October 12, 2022
After an 0-3 start to 2022, Wheeler went 11-2 over his next 13 decisions. He’s 1-2 since Aug. 10, though. Wheeler also missed a month suffering from right forearm tendinitis.
He worked seven innings of four-hit ball to get the win in a 3-0 shutout of the Padres on May 18. He’s 3-1 with a 2.06 ERA in seven career starts against San Diego.
Wheeler vs Darvish Stats
| 12-7 | Record | 16-8 |
| 2.82 | ERA | 3.10 |
| 3.10 | xERA | 3.49 |
| 1.04 | WHIP | 0.95 |
| 4.79 | SO/W Ratio | 4.72 |
Padres right-hander Yu Darvish enjoyed his best season in MLB since he was 16-9 with Texas in 2012. Going back into the regular season, Darvish is 8-1 over his last nine starts.
Darvish rates among the top 9% of NL hurlers in bases on balls percentage (4.8). During postseason play, Darvish has served up four home runs over 12 innings of work.
Yu Darvish said he’s watching video on opposing hitters all the time, he’ll even sneak a peek while he’s having dinner with his wife.
This is all very relatable. pic.twitter.com/N4CZwWAVuF
— Darnay Tripp (@DarnayTripp) October 17, 2022
He faced the Phillies twice this season. Darvish worked seven innings of shutout ball to get the win in a 2-0 verdict May 19 at Philadelphia. On June 26 at San Diego, he allowed three earned runs over six innings and didn’t figure in the decision of an 8-5 loss to the Phillies. He’s 2-1 with a 2.23 ERA in seven career starts against Philadelphia.
Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers
| Phillies Batters | Batting Average vs Darvish | Padres Batters | Batting Average vs Wheeler |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Castellanos | .235 | Josh Bell | .308 |
| Rhys Hoskins | .375 | Ha-Seong Kim | .333 |
| Brandon Marsh | .333 | Manny Machado | .250 |
| JT Realmuto | .235 | Jurickson Profar | .400 |
| Bryson Stott | .250 | Juan Soto | .289 |
Philadelphia’s Rhys Hoskins is 6-for-16 (.375) with two doubles, a homer and 3 RBI off of Darvish. Brandon Marsh is 1-for-3 (.333) with a triple. Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber have gone deep against Darvish.
Wild. Juan Soto has been an underdog in five career postseason series. Juan Soto has won all five of those postseason series. https://t.co/Iv03J8Rl4m
— AJ Cassavell (@AJCassavell) October 16, 2022
San Diego’s Josh Bell is hitting .308 (8-for-26) with two homers and five RBI when facing Wheeler. Jurickson Profar is 2-for-5 (.400). Juan Soto is 11-for-38 (.289) with two solo homers.
Phillies vs Padres Prediction
Darvish is 2-3 in his last five MLB postseason decisions and 4-5 lifetime. He’s 0-4 with a 5.85 ERA in playoff games he’s started at home.
It’s Nola vs. Nola for the NLCS #LSUMLB pic.twitter.com/w93RKJvL25
— LSU Baseball (@LSUbaseball) October 17, 2022
In two career postseason starts, both on the road, Wheeler is 0-1 with a 2.19 ERA.
The Braves were on a 22-10 roll when they met Philadelphia and lost in four games. Philadelphia entered the playoffs 7-13 over the past 20. The Phillies are 5-1 in the playoffs
Pick: Philadelphia Phillies ML (+105)
Sports Writer
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
