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Pirates vs Padres Odds and Picks – Keller vs Weathers (May 4)

John Perrotto

by John Perrotto in MLB Baseball

Updated May 4, 2021 · 1:40 PM PDT

Machado running
San Diego Padres' Manny Machado, left, reaches first base on an error by Pittsburgh Pirates first baseman Phillip Evans (24) during the first inning of a baseball game in Pittsburgh, Tuesday, April 13, 2021. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)
  • The San Diego Padres host the Pittsburgh Pirates at 10:10 pm ET, Wednesday, at Petco Park
  • Mitch Keller (1-3, 8.20 ERA) will start for the Pirates while the Padres are expected to pitch Ryan Weathers (1-0, 0.55)
  • Read below for a preview and prediction on the game

The Padres are hot and the Pittsburgh Pirates are not heading into their matchup at 10:10 p.m. ET Tuesday at Petco Park in San Diego.

San Diego has won four of its last five games to improve to 17-13. Included in that stretch was a 2-0 win over the Pirates on Monday night in the three-game series opener.

The Pirates have lost five in a row since inching over .500, dropping their record to 12-16.

Pirates vs Padres Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total at DraftKings
Pittsburgh Pirates +188 +1.5 (-120) Over 7.5 (-118)
San Diego Padres -225 -1.5 (-100) Under 7.5 (-104)

Odds as of May 4th.

Keller Killing Pirates

Mitch Keller will start for the Pirates and the front office along with manager Derek Shelton believe the 25-year-old can be a large part of the rebuilding franchise’s future.

However, Keller has been a disappointment since making his MLB debut in 2019. In 21 career starts, he has a 3-9 record and 6.21 ERA.

Keller’s last outing last Wednesday against the Kansas City Royals was particularly frustrating. He needed 83 pitches to record just seven outs in the game that started the Pirates’ current skid, allowing four runs and five walks in 2.1 innings.

It appeared Keller was ready to turn the corner last September. He had back-to-back hitless outings of six innings against the St. Louis Cardinals and five innings versus the Cleveland Indians to finish the 2020 season.

Keller’s career numbers against the Padres, though limited, are scary bad. San Diego’s projected starting lineup is 8 for 12 against him. If Austin Nola starts at catcher instead of Victor Caratini, then that figure goes to 10 for 12.

Padres Career Stats vs Keller

Player AB H HR RBI K AVG
Trent Grisham 3 2 0 0 1 .667
Fernando Tatis Jr. 0 0 0 0 0 0
Manny Machado 1 1 1 2 0 1.000
Eric Hosmer 2 2 0 2 0 1.000
Jake Cronenworth 1 1 0 2 0 1.000
Wil Myers 0 0 0 0 0 .000
Jurickson Profar 3 2 0 0 0 .667
Victor Caratini 2 0 0 0 0 .000

Keller has faced the Padres only once in his career and lost, getting tagged for seven runs in 3.1 innings on April 15 at PNC Park in Pittsburgh.

Padres’ Rotation Banged Up

The Padres’ rotation is banged up and all the injuries caused Jayce Tingler demur to name a starter for Tuesday’s game following Monday night’s win.

Rookie left-hander Ryan Weathers (arm fatigue) and Dinelson Lamet (forearm soreness) both left their last starts early. Chris Paddack was placed on the injured list last week because of undisclosed reasons.

The Padres went with a bullpen game Monday night.

Both Weathers and Lamet were spotted playing catch in the outfield before the game. The consensus seems to be Weathers will most likely get the call.

Weathers was pulled after one inning in his previous start last Wednesday against the Arizona Diamondbacks in Phoenix. However, he has been outstanding in three starts and three relief appearances this season.

The 21-year-old son of former MLB reliever David Weathers has allowed only one run and four hits in 16.1 innings. He also has 16 strikeouts and six walks.

Weather’s slider has been unhittable.

Weathers has never faced the Pirates or anyone on their active roster in a big league game.

Pirates Career Stats vs Weathers

Player AB H HR RBI K AVG
Adam Frazier 0 0 0 0 0 .000
Bryan Reynolds 0 0 0 0 0 .000
Todd Frazier 0 0 0 0 0 .000
Erik Gonzalez 0 0 0 0 0 .000
Phillip Evans 0 0 0 0 0 .000
Wilmer Difo 0 0 0 0 0 000
Jacob Stallings 0 0 0 0 0 .000
Kevin Newman 0 0 0 0 0 .000

Monday Night Baseball

The Padres won Monday night despite being no-hit through six innings by Pirates left-hander Tyler Anderson.

Wil Myers finally broke through with a single in the seventh right after Manny Machado drew a leadoff walk. Following Myers’ hit, Tommy Pham hit a sacrifice fly and Nola added an RBI single to account for all the game’s scoring.

Miguel Diaz, Craig Stammen, Austin Adams, Tim Hill, Drew Pomeranz and Mark Melancon combined on a four-hit shutout.

Fade The Pirates

Regardless of who winds up starting for the Padres, San Diego is the play on runline. once it is posted. Fading the Pirates and Keller makes all the sense in the world in this one.

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