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Rays vs Mets Odds, Predictions & Player Props to Target (May 18)

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in MLB Baseball

Updated Jun 12, 2023 · 10:53 AM PDT

Tampa Bay Rays run celebration versus New York Mets
May 17, 2023; New York City, New York, USA;Tampa Bay Rays center fielder Jose Siri (22) celebrates with shortstop Wander Franco (5) after hitting a solo home run during the seventh inning against the New York Mets at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
  • Tampa Bay is listed as -115 moneyline favorites in the Rays vs Mets odds on Thursday afternoon
  • The teams have split the first two games of this three-game set
  • Keep reading for the Rays vs Mets odds, predictions and player prop picks below

After uncharacteristically dropping back-to-back series, the Rays (32-11, 13-8 away) are looking to rebound to start the week against the Mets (20-23, 7-9 home). Tampa Bay took Game 1 of this three-game set on Tuesday, but squandered multiple leads en route to losing Game 2 on Wednesdsay.

Online sportsbooks are bullish on a Rays win in Thursday’s MLB odds, as they opened them as the road chalk in this battle between top-eight World Series odds contenders.

Rays vs Mets Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
Tampa Bay Rays -115 -1.5 (+155) O 8.5 (-115)
New York Mets -105 +1.5 (-180) U 8.5 (-105)

Tampa Bay is currently a -115 moneyline favorite, in a contest with a total of 8.5. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 pm ET at Citi Field in Queens, New York, with sunshine and 61 degree temperatures on deck.


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Odds as of May 17th at Bet365. Claim a Bet365 bonus code to bet on MLB on Thursday. 

Tampa Bay vs New York Probable Pitchers

The Rays will give the ball to rookie Taj Bradley, as he looks to resume the impressive start to his MLB career. Bradley won all three of his starts in April, beating heavyweights Houston and Boston along the way. He posted a ridiculous 23-to-2 strikeout-to-walk rate through 15 innings, but hasn’t pitched in the Majors since April 24th.

He’s been back throwing for Triple-A Durham in the meantime, and the results have not been favorable. Bradley has yielded a total of 17 runs in three starts, lasting fewer than 4 innings in two of those outings. He’s walked more batters during that stretch than he’s struck out (6 vs 5), while coughing up four home runs.

He’ll look to turn things around versus the Mets regulars in the MLB starting lineups, who finally broke out in Wednesday’s victory.

Bradley vs Megill Stats

Taj Bradley
Tylor Megill
3-0 Record 4-2
3.52 ERA 4.02
0.91 WHIP 1.51
.250 OBA .255
11.5 SO/W Ratio 1.4

New York will counter with Tylor Megill. The right-hander has been battling control issues this month, and that’s not a recipe for success against baseball’s best lineup.

Megill has issued 10 walks in his last three starts, which is only two fewer than the amount of strikeouts he’s recorded. Despite his lack of control, he’s managed to keep each of those opponents to three runs or less.

The 27-year-old has only coughed up more than three runs only once all season, and has limited enemy hitters to a .255 batting average.

Rays vs Mets Predictions

Slowing down this Rays team however, is about as big a challenge as there is this season. Tampa Bay leads MLB in scoring, average, OBP, home runs, slugging and OPS. They’ve plated at least seven runs in four straight games, and have crossed the plate 44 times over their last six outings.

Tampa Bay cranked two more homers in a losing effort on Wednesday, while pounding double-digit hits. Seven of their hitters already own a WAR north of 1.0, with both Yandy Diaz and Randy Arozarena blasting 10 home runs a piece. Josh Lowe meanwhile, has smacked nine homers already and is our preferred target in the player props market.

Lowe has multiple hits in three of his last six games and has absolutely crushed right-handed pitching like Megill. He’s slashing .297/.349/.614 in 101 at-bats versus righties so far this season. Dial him up for 2+ hits on Thursday.

As for the Mets, after scoring three or fewer runs in nine of 13 games, they broke out for eight on Wednesday. They erased multi-run deficits in both the 9th and 10th innings, punctuated by this Pete Alonso walk-off dinger.

The New York lineup has underperformed all season, but there is too much talent for them to continue being the 23rd highest scoring team in baseball. Given Bradley’s form in the minors, we should bank on what we saw late night from the Mets on Wednesday to carry over into Thursday’s contest.

Mets vs Rays 2023 H2H Results

Date Away Team Home Team Result
May 17 Rays Mets NYM, 8-7
May 16 Rays Mets TB, 8-5

Trends wise, only four teams have seen a great percentage of their games go over than Tampa Bay. Each of their last seven contests have exceeded the total, and Thursday’s matchup is profiling as a high-scoring game as well.

Picks: Over 8.5 Runs (-115)


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