- Chris Sale was 12-4 with a 2.11 ERA and 0.86 WHIP with the Red Sox last season
- Sale is reportedly close to inking a long-term extension with Boston
- Sale missed time in 2018 with a shoulder injury and was limited to only 27 starts
Chris Sale has long been one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball and the lines set by Bovada for his season Over/Under bets are reflective of that. Here’s a breakdown of the three bets available and where I think the value is for each one.
Chris Sale Projected 2019 ERA
|Chris Sale 2019 Regular Season ERA||Odds at Bovada|
*All odds taken 03/15/19
Chris Sale blew this number out of the water last year posting a 2.11 ERA. In doing so, he proved his 2.17 ERA back in 2014 with the White Sox was no fluke.
Playing in front of one of the best defenses in baseball it would be no surprise if Sale were able to equal his total from last year, but even if he can’t, the kind folks at Bovada have built in a half run cushion for you which makes the under the clear value play.
Pick: Under 2.60
Chris Sale Statistics (Last 5 Years)
Chris Sale could be on the verge of signing a mega extension with the Red Sox and with these numbers it’s clear to see why both sides would want that. Since joining Boston in 2017, Sale has put up some incredible numbers including a career high in strikeouts in 2017 as well as a career low in ERA last season (min. 22 starts).
— Forbes SportsMoney (@ForbesSports) March 14, 2019
Chris Sale Projected 2019 Strikeouts
|Chris Sale 2019 Regular Season Strikeouts||Odds at Bovada|
Here’s where things get a little dicey. Despite Sale’s greatness, he did only make 27 starts last season due to injury. When you’re betting the Over/Under on his ERA missing games doesn’t really matter. Here, however, it would matter in a big way. Last season he would have missed this over due to the games missed, but the year prior he blew it out of the water.
Chris Sale is throwing baseballs to hitters pic.twitter.com/XLGmB0v4Kd
— Rob Bradford (@bradfo) March 6, 2019
If he’s perfectly healthy it’s likely he can top this number, but after signs injuries could be on the horizon plus an extended work load thanks to the World Series run, expect the Red Sox to be cautious if any issues do arise. I’d bet that Sale misses enough games that he also misses hitting the over here.
Pick: Under 260.5
Chris Sale Projected 2019 Wins
|Chris Sale 2019 Regular Season Wins||Odds at Bovada|
Following the same logic as the last prop, can Sale stay healthy enough to win 17 games? Sure he could, but even if he is healthy that’s a lofty win total to put up.
Six pitchers won 17 or more games in the American League last year. That’s a pretty select group. Sale is certainly capable but 17 is actually his career-high, something he has done three times.
When betting props like this, I try to identify where the oddsmakers have left some room for error (like the ERA prop above), but here they haven’t left any. Bet on 16 or fewer wins for the Red Sox ace.
Pick: Under 16.5