Red Sox vs Cubs Predictions, Odds, Props & Splits for Friday (July 18)

• The Cubs are nearly unbeatable at home with a 30-14 record, while injuries have decimated Boston’s bullpen
• The Over has hit in 80% of Chicago’s last 10 home games, and sharp money is pounding it
• Read below for Cubs vs Red Sox prediction, odds, props and public betting for Friday

The MLB season resumes from the All-Star break with a Friday afternoon interleague matchup at Wrigley Field. The Boston Red Sox send Lucas Giolito (6-1, 3.36 ERA) to face the Chicago Cubs and Colin Rea (7-3, 3.91 ERA) in what appears on the surface as a pitching advantage for the visitors.

But there’s one major issue for Boston: their bullpen is absolutely wrecked. Nine relievers are on the IL. That’s not a typo. Meanwhile, the Cubs have been dominant at home all season, and their offense can put up huge numbers in a hurry.

First pitch from the Friendly Confines is set for Friday, July 18, at 2:20 PM ET.

Red Sox vs Cubs Predictions

• Chicago Cubs Moneyline (-140 at Caesars)
• Over 7.5 Runs (-105)
• Chicago Cubs -1.5 (+158)

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While Giolito gives Boston a clear edge in the starting pitching matchup, everything else points to Chicago. The Cubs are 30-14 at home this season. That’s a .682 winning percentage. They’ve also gone 7-3 in their last 10 as favorites.

The biggest factor in my prediction is that Boston’s bullpen situation is simply a disaster. With nine arms on the IL, they’ll need Giolito to go deep. That’s a tall order against a Cubs offense sporting a .771 team OPS. Once Chicago gets to that depleted pen, it could get ugly.

Not to mention, Giolito has been absolutely brutal in his first start after the All-Star break. Since 2016, he’s posted a horrific 7.89 ERA in these spots (34.2 IP, 30 ER). Last year? He got shelled for 8 earned runs in just 3.2 innings. The year before? 6 earned in 3.0 innings.

The trends scream Over. It’s hit in 8 of Chicago’s last 10 home games (80%) and 9 of Boston’s last 12 road games against winning teams (75%). Both offenses can rake, and with Boston’s bullpen issues, 8.5 runs should fall easily.

I also love the Cubs on the run line at plus money. If they win, which I expect, they should cover given Boston’s pitching depth.

Chicago Cubs vs Boston Red Sox Odds

Odds as of July 17, 2025 from Caesars. Check out the top MLB betting apps as the season resumes.

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The Cubs opened at -120 and have been bet up to -140, showing clear support for the home team. The total has dropped a full point from 8.5, indicating sharp money. However, we can’t buy in considering Giolito’s struggles in this spot, and how well Chicago bats at home.

The market gives Chicago about a 56.3% chance of winning. At -140, that’s fair value considering their home dominance.

Cubs vs Red Sox Pitcher Props

MLB pitcher props as of July 17, 2025 from consensus.

I’m fading Giolito’s Over 5.5 strikeouts despite the plus money. Given his post-All-Star break struggles and career issues at Wrigley, he might not last long enough to rack up 6 K’s. The Cubs will be aggressive early knowing his history.

In three career starts at Wrigley, Giolito has allowed 12 earned runs in just 15.2 innings. That’s a 6.89 ERA against the Cubs at home.

For Rea, the Over 5.5 hits allowed at -130 looks solid. Boston’s patient approach should lead to plenty of baserunners against the soft-tossing righty.

Key Batter Props

Duran and Bregman are both heavily juiced to record a hit, which makes sense given Rea’s tendency to allow contact. On the Cubs side, Suzuki at +370 to homer offers value if you’re looking for a longshot against Giolito.

Chicago Cubs vs Boston Red Sox Public Betting

The public money is forecasting a high-scoring game. A massive 78.5% of bets and 81.3% of the money are on Over 7.5.

The moneyline shows an interesting split. While 61.7% of tickets are on Chicago, the sharp money indicator points to Boston. Chicago’s stake percentage is 4.3% lower than their bet percentage, suggesting bigger wagers are backing the road dog.

I’ll side with the public here. Boston’s bullpen situation is too dire to ignore.

Injury Impact

Boston’s injury list is staggering. They’re missing Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, and Patrick Sandoval from the rotation. The bullpen? Liam Hendriks, Josh Winckowski, Justin Slaten, Nick Burdi, and several others are all out.

The Cubs have their own injuries, notably ace Justin Steele. But their bullpen is in much better shape, which should be the difference late in this game.

Recent Form

Both teams had momentum prior to the break. Chicago took down the Yankees 4-1 behind Shota Imanaga’s gem last time out. Boston beat Tampa Bay by the same score with Brayan Bello dealing.

But momentum only goes so far when you’re missing half your pitching staff. The Cubs’ home dominance and Boston’s injury woes make this a clear play on the home team and the Over.

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