Upcoming Match-ups

Red Sox vs Yankees Odds, Picks, Probable Pitchers

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in MLB Baseball

Jul 14, 2021 · 8:02 PM PDT

J.D. Martinez of the Boston Red Sox watching his fly ball during a game against the Blue Jays.
Boston Red Sox's J.D. Martinez watches his fly ball against the Toronto Blue Jays during the first inning of a baseball game Tuesday, May 18, 2021, in Dunedin, Fla. (AP Photo/Mike Carlson)
  • The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees renew hostilities on Thursday, July 15 (7:08 pm ET)
  • Boston exits the All Star break with a 1.5-game lead on Tampa in the AL East; the Yankees are 4.5 games out of the second Wild Card
  • See odds for Thursday’s game plus best bets, below

This game has been postponed due to the Yankees’ COVID issue.

The second half of the MLB season officially starts on Thursday, July 15, when the Boston Red Sox (55-36, 27-17 away) visit the New York Yankees (46-43, 23-22 home) at Yankee Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 7:08 pm ET.

The Red Sox are slight underdogs with Eduardo Rodriguez slated to face to-be-determined for the Pinstripes.

The most-important piece of information pertaining to New York’s starter is that Gerrit Cole is unlikely to get the nod. Just five days ago (July 10th), he threw 129 pitches in a 1-0 complete-game shutout win over Houston. Manager Aaron Boone will certainly want to give his ace an extra day (or two) of rest.

Boston vs New York Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total at DraftKings
Boston Red Sox +105 +1.5 (-165) Over  9.5 (-110)
New York Yankees -125 -1.5 (+145) Under 9.5 (-110)

Odds as of July 14th.

Both teams have been roughly the same on the road as at home. The Red Sox are 19 games over .500 for the season, which includes going ten games over .500 on the road and nine games over at home.

The Yankees are just three games over .500 on the year, and only one game over at home.

Rodriguez vs German

Eduardo Rodriguez
Domingo German
6-5 Record 4-5
5.52 ERA 4.44
3.37 xERA 4.22
1.372 WHIP 1.22
4.95 SO/W Ratio 3.95

Boston starter Eduardo Rodriguez has pitched better in 2021 than his 5.52 ERA would suggest. His xERA (Expected Earned-Run Average) is considerably lower than his actual ERA. So are his FIP and xFIP, two other advanced metrics that take luck out of the equation.

The bottom line is that, based on the number of strikeouts and walks Rodriguez has recorded/surrendered this season, and the quality of contact hitters are making against him, he is extremely unlucky to have surrendered an average of 5.52 runs per nine innings.

If he keeps pitching the way he did in the first half of the season, his numbers are going to improve.

The Boston lineup, which features three All Stars in the heart of the order (Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, and JD Martinez) has the sixth-best wOBA in the majors and eighth-best wRC+. The Yankees lineup is 13th and 14th, respectively, in those metrics.

Boston is also pitching a shutout as far as the season series between these teams in concerned. The Red Sox are 6-0 against the Yankees in 2021, sweeping a three-game set in the Bronx in early June and another three-game series at Fenway three weeks later. Boston outscored New York 36-17 over those six games and won five of the six by at least two runs.

Rodriguez earned the win in the most-recent matchup, a 9-2 drubbing on June 27th. He held the Yankees to two earned runs on five hits over six strong innings while striking out eight and issuing zero walks.

The 2021 season is a small sample size, but it’s extremely hard to get behind this mediocre Yankee offense when they are facing a lineup as potent as Boston’s with an effective pitcher on the mound.

Pick: Red Sox moneyline (+105)

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