Upcoming Match-ups

Red Sox’s World Series Odds Keep Getting Worse After Poor First 3 Weeks

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in MLB Baseball

Apr 18, 2019 · 2:38 PM PDT

Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox have the worst run differential ever by a defending World Series champion through the first 19 games. Photo by Keith Allison Wikimedia Commons) [CC License].
  • The Boston Red Sox are off to a horrendous 6-13 start in 2019
  • Their average World Series odds are now +970 after opening the season at +640
  • Is there any reason to bet the Red Sox at this price?

The Boston Red Sox are in trouble. Big trouble. Fresh off a two-game sweep at the hands of their arch rivals, the defending champs have lost four of their last five, and are tied for the fewest wins in the entire American League (6). Their average World Series odds have been lengthened to +970.

2019 World Series Odds

Team 2019 World Series Odds
Houston Astros +375
Los Angeles Dodgers +700
New York Yankees +750
Philadelphia Phillies +900
Boston Red Sox +1100

*Odds taken on 04/18/19. 

They’ve already lost 13 times in 2019 and are on pace to have one of the most pitiful seasons ever by a defending World Series champion.

Boston Has Been Historically Bad

The Red Sox have allowed an MLB worst 119 runs and their -42 run differential is the worst ever through 19 games by a team that won the championship the previous year. Sure, there’s still 143 games remaining, but the advanced metrics are troubling. The Red Sox rank 27th according to Wins Above Replacement, and no team in baseball has gotten worse production from their starting rotation.

As bad as the pitching has been, the offense hasn’t exactly been lighting the league on fire. Boston ranks 18th in total offense, 20th in slugging, and 21st in on-base percentage. They’ve scored the fourth fewest runs in the AL and no player on the team has an individual WAR above 0.7.

Struggling Stars

While Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Dustin Pedroia, and Jackie Bradley Jr are all performing below expectation, the biggest concern has to be the performance of Chris Sale.

Boston’s $145 Million dollar ace is off to the worst start of his career, posting an 8.50 ERA and 1.56 WHIP through four starts. His K/9 is 50% lower than it was a season ago, and his velocity has plummeted.

Sale did manage to touch 97 mph regularly in his most recent start, but it still didn’t prevent the Yankees from tagging him with four runs in just five innings.

Stay Clear of the Red Sox for Now

While regression from their championship season a year ago was inevitable, there are too many red flags to back the Red Sox to repeat at their current price. One team to keep an eye on, however, is the Rays. The darlings of the analytical community are at it again in 2019, leading the majors in WAR among pitching staffs, and ranking second in offense.

Dating back to 2018, Tampa Bay is 18-2-2 in its last 22 series, and their +1300 average World Series odds look pretty juicy right now.

Author Image