Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Odds to Win ALDS, Prediction, and Preview
- The AL East champion Tampa Bay Rays are the -165 favorites to defeat the Boston Red Sox in their best-of-five ALDS Series that begins Thursday, October 7
- Tampa Bay (2020) and Boston (2018) are two of the last three American League champions
- The Rays won 11 of 19 regular-season meetings from the Red Sox
Fresh off a 6-2 dismantling of the New York Yankees in the American League Wild Card game, the Tampa Bay Rays are the next AL East team standing in the playoff path of the Boston Red Sox. And what a formidable foe the Rays present in the ALDS.
Tampa Bay won the AL East by eight games over the Red Sox and Yankees. The Rays (100-62) were the only AL team this season to register 100 wins. Even though it’s the Houston Astros (+475) and not the Rays (+650) who are the shortest AL team in the World Series odds, the last three #1 seeds in the AL all ended up advancing to the World Series.
Tampa Bay is earning the favorite’s nod to handle the Red Sox in this set. The Rays, who opened at -145 after dismantling New York, have been bet up to the -165 chalk.
Red Sox vs Rays ALDS Odds
| Team | Moneyline |
|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox | +140 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | -165 |
Odds as of October 6th at DraftKings.
The best-of-five series begins Thursday at Tropicana Field, which will play host to Games 1, 2 and 5 of the best-of-five set. Boston’s Fenway Park will be the site of Games 3 and 4.
Rays Own Massive Advantage On Mound
There’s something to be said for certainty and, certainly when it comes to pitching in this series, Tampa Bay is the team that has it. The pitching matchups in this set could be described as TBR vs TBD.
Rays manager Kevin Cash has already outlined his pitching plans for the first three games of the series. Left-hander Shane McClanahan (10-6, 3.43 ERA) gets the nod for Game 1. Right-hander Shane Baz (2-0, 2.03 ERA), who made his MLB debut on September 20, will take the ball in Game 2. Right-hander Drew Rasmussen (4-0, 2.44 ERA) is slotted in for Game 3. Rasmussen shows a 1.46 ERA over his last eight starts.
Rollin' with Shane² pic.twitter.com/eLB9aumnkt
— Tampa Bay Rays (@RaysBaseball) October 5, 2021
As for the Red Sox rotation, they’re sitting on it. Manager Alex Cora hasn’t named any of his starters for the ALDS. That’s probably because your guess of who to go with is as good as his.
Beyond Nathan Eovaldi, who pitched the AL Wild Card game, Boston’s rotation is shaky and uncertain. The Red Sox finished 14h in the AL in batting average allowed (.258) and hit batters (79), 12th in WHIP (1.38), and 10th in walks issued (546).
I would simply not go to the Red Sox bullpen if I wanted them to win.
— Kate Feldman (@kateefeldman) October 6, 2021
Tampa Bay hurlers were #1 in the AL in ERA (3.67), WHIP (1.17) and bases on balls (436). But the best part of the Rays’ staff are their relievers. If Tampa Bay gets through the fifth inning with a lead, it’s usually game over.
The Rays’ bullpen led the AL in ERA (3.24), walks (58), strikeouts (739), WHIP (1.14) and batting average (.224). Boston’s relievers were 12th in WHIP (1.39) and average (.244).
Boston pitchers posted the worst runs against average and highest OPS allowed of any postseason club.
Red Sox Hitting Their Stride
If Boston is going to win this season, it’s the Red Sox bats that will need to carry the day. And they are quite capable of doing so.
Even if JD Martinez (sprained left ankle) can’t go, Boston is loaded with quality bats. Among the 25 top OPS players (minimum 250 at-bats) in the AL playoffs, seven play for the Red Sox. Of course, Martinez (.867) is a bit part of that but so are Xander Bogaerts (.863), Rafael Devers (.890), Kyle Schwarber (.957) and Bobby Dalbec (.792).
Kyle Schwarber has 13 HR of 110+ MPH in 2021, tied for the 2nd-most among left-handed batters (Ohtani, 25) pic.twitter.com/pMiAqdtBd2
— MLB Stats (@MLBStats) October 6, 2021
Seven Boston batters slugged at least 20 homers. Three of them hit over 30 long balls.
One thing Boston pitchers did well this season was curtail balls from exiting the park. Red Sox hurlers allowed the fewest homers of any AL staff (176) and that could be a vital stat.
No offense relies more on the long ball to produce offense than the Rays. Tampa Bay doesn’t put together rallies. The Rays play Earl Weaver baseball – they wait for the three-run homer.
Four players – Brandon Lowe (39), Mike Zunino (33), Austin Meadows (27) and Randy Arozarena (20) – combined for 119 of the team’s 222 home runs.
Pick: Tampa Bay Rays (-165)
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
