Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros Odds, Picks & Player Props (Game 7)

• Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros Game 7 goes tonight (8:03 pm ET)
• Max Scherzer starts for the Rangers against Cristian Javier for the Astros
• Get the Rangers vs Astros Game 7 odds, picks, and player props on Monday, Oct. 23

For the first time this postseason, a series will go the distance. Thanks to a dominant 9-2 Texas win last night, the Rangers (98-75, 47-41 away) and Houston Astros (96-76, 40-46 home) will play a decisive Game 7 in the ALCS on Monday night at Minute Maid Park in Houston at 8:03 pm ET.

Despite the road team winning all six games in the series to date, Houston is listed as a slight home favorite in Monday’s MLB odds.

Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros Game 7 Odds

The Astros are currently -125 home favorites on the DraftKings Sportsbook app. Texas is a +105 underdog to win its first AL Pennant since 2011. The total is at 9.0 and only the first game of the series (a 2-0 Texas win) has stayed under that number. Games 2 and 5 landed on nine exactly, while Games 3, 4, and 6 all reached at least 11 runs. Cumulatively, Texas and Houston are averaging 9.5 runs per game through the first six of the ALCS.

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Odds as of 11:28 am ET, Oct. 23, at DraftKings. 

The winner of Monday’s game will move onto the World Series in the 2023 MLB playoff bracket, where they will face either the Philadelphia Phillies or Arizona Diamondbacks. The Phillies, who own a 3-2 lead in the NLCS with the series shifting back to Philadelphia for Games 6 and (if necessary) 7, are listed as heavy -600 favorites in the odds to win the National League.

TEX vs HOU Game 7 Starting Pitchers

Despite an ugly start from the future Hall of Famer on Wednesday, the Rangers are rolling with Max Scherzer again in Monday’s Game 7. The Astros, meanwhile, list Cristian Javier as their starter in today’s MLB lineups, making this a pitching rematch from Game 3.  Scherzer was tagged for five runs on five hits and a walk in just 4.0 innings in Game 3 of the ALCS on Oct. 18, managing four strikeouts in the process. This Astros lineup was already batting .287 off Scherzer with a .487 slugging percentage before Game 3. Those numbers only increased to .289 and .503 after Wednesday’s start.

Max Scherzer vs Cristian Javier

Javier was better than Scherzer last Wednesday, especially in the early going. The 6’1 righty ultimately surrendered two runs on three hits and a walk over 5.1 innings with three strikeouts, but was nearly perfect through the first four innings before giving up a two-run home to Josh Jung in the fifth.

Javier was one of several Houston starters who had a subpar regular season; his 4.56 ERA is almost a full run higher than his career ERA of 3.57. But he’s always been rock-solid in the postseason, and his two starts in 2023 continued that trend. In 43.1 playoff innings, the Domincan has a 2.08 ERA and 0.92 WHIP.

Scherzer’s playoff stats are, overall, solid (3.80 ERA and 1.13 WHIP) but his lone postseason start for the Mets last year and his first for the Rangers this year both ended with double-digit ERAs. Scherzer’s start on Wednesday was his first since September 12 due to a back strain that kept him out the final three weeks of the regular season and first two playoff series.

Rangers vs Astros Game 7 Player Props

Both starting pitchers have ample playoff experience yet their over/unders for Game 7 are relatively pessimistic. Scherzer and Javier both have a strikeout over/under of just 4.5 in Monday’s MLB player props while Javier’s outs-recorded O/U is 12.5 and Scherzer’s is 13.5. Javier would need to get just one out in the fifth inning to reach the over; Scherzer would need two.

Adolis Garcia has shockingly short odds to hit a home run at just +190, despite a brutal history against Houston’s starter (more on this later). Postseason home run leader Yordan Alvarez once again has shortest odds to go deep for the Astros at +265. Alvarez homered in four of the first six playoff games this year – including two multi-home run games – but has been held inside the park in the past four.

Rangers vs Astros Predictions

Scherzer’s Game 3 performance was indeed awful but it was awful for somewhat encouraging reasons if you’re a Texas fan. The velocity was there on his fastball (95 MPH) and his curve was moving effectively. It was location that troubled him, and that’s more easily correctable than velocity issues.

Javier’s playoff pedigree speaks for itself at this point, but he also has a pretty solid history against this Texas lineup. Ranger hitters are batting just .231 off Javier in 143 total at-bats. Notably, Adolis Garcia is just 2-for-19 (.105 avg) with no extra-base hits while Marcus Semien is 4-for-22 (.182) with one double and Corey Seager is 5-for-23 (.217), though has tagged the Houston starter for two homers.

I expect both starters to get the better of their respective matchups in the early going and this to play out as a classic, low-scoring Game 7, at least through the first three innings.

TEX vs HOU Game 7 Picks:

• Scherzer over 13.5 outs (-110)
• NRFI (-110)
• First three innings under 1.5 runs (+195)
• Adolis Garcia under 0.5 home runs (-265)