Tigers (Boyd) vs Twins (Dobnak) Picks and Odds – Sep. 4
By Paul Attfield in MLB Baseball
Published:
- The Tigers will play the Twins in Game 1 of a doubleheader at 2:10 pm ET on Friday, Sept. 4th
- Detroit has won all three matchups this year, but Minnesota went 14-5 against the Tigers in 2019
- Read on for the odds, analysis and a best bet for this seven-inning game
Friday’s doubleheader featuring the Minnesota Twins hosting the Detroit Tigers will have firm postseason implications. The Twins, who came into this shortened season harboring World Series dreams, are very much in playoff position, currently occupying the second wild-card spot. But the Tigers, who many predicted would be in contention for last place in the American League, are just three games back of them and two behind the second wild-card spot.
For Friday’s opener though, it’s very much Minnesota which is favored in the Tigers vs Twins odds, with 5-2 Randy Dobnak of the Twins going up against 1-4 Matthew Boyd of the Tigers.
Tigers vs Twins Odds
| Team | Runline | Moneyline | Total Runs at DraftKings |
|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers | +1.5 (-148) | +165 | O 7 (-108) |
| Minnesota Twins | -1.5 (+125) | -195 | U 7 (-113) |
Odds taken Sept. 4
Dobnak’s Setback
The 25-year-old sophomore right-hander had enjoyed a very fruitful start to his MLB career, going 7-2 in his first 11 starts and not once surrendering more than two earned runs in a game. That run of success came to a shuddering end last Saturday in his third career encounter with the Tigers though, in what was also Game 1 of a doubleheader.
Randy Dobnak in 2020:
First six starts — 6 runs in 30.1 innings
Seventh start — 6 runs in 4.1 innings— Aaron Gleeman (@AaronGleeman) August 29, 2020
Detroit tagged him for 12 hits and six runs in the 4.2 innings he pitched before he was pulled from an eventual 8-2 loss in Motown.
Congrats to Miguel Cabrera, who becomes the eighth member of the Detroit Tigers' 2,000-hit club.
READ: https://t.co/FtDJAcZn7k pic.twitter.com/UOpEdil1VH
— Freep Sports (@freepsports) August 30, 2020
How he responds to that setback will be key to the Twins’ chances of success today.
Tigers Career Stats vs Dobnak
| Player | AB | HR | RBI | AVG. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miguel Cabrera | 7 | 0 | 0 | .143 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 4 | 0 | 1 | .500 |
| Willi Castro | 5 | 0 | 0 | .200 |
| Niko Goodrum | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Grayson Greiner | 2 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
| Victor Reyes | 6 | 0 | 0 | .500 |
| Austin Romine | 2 | 0 | 1 | .500 |
| Jonathan Schoop | 3 | 0 | 1 | .333 |
| Christin Stewart | 3 | 0 | 2 | .333 |
Can Boyd Double Up Against Twins?
Already suffering through one of the worst years of his short career, with a Tigers career-worst 7.27 ERA, Matthew Boyd finally broke through for his first win of the season last Saturday. The opponent? None other than the Minnesota Twins, the same team he will face again today in the exact same pitching matchup he faced in Game 1 of last Saturday’s doubleheader.
We hear from Game 1 starter Matthew Boyd after he pitches six strong innings in an 8-2 victory over the Twins. #DetroitRoots pic.twitter.com/6ZShCyrUkS
— Bally Sports Detroit (@BallySportsDET) August 29, 2020
The one caveat? That game was at Comerica Park, while this contest will take place at Target Field, and the 29-year-old Boyd has a very pronounced difference pitching at home versus pitching away throughout his career, going 19-19 in Detroit versus 13-32 elsewhere.
Matthew Boyd, Wicked Sliders.
6Ks thru 2. pic.twitter.com/RCbeYBLUTA
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 18, 2020
Counter to that, however, is his record against the Twins. Somewhat surprisingly for a guy with a 32-51 career record, Boyd actually has an 8-6 record against Minnesota, with a 4.69 ERA and a decent WHIP of 1.121.
Twins Career Stats vs Boyd
| Player | AB | HR | RBI | AVG. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ehire Adrianza | 18 | 0 | 0 | .278 |
| Luis Arraez | 2 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
| Alex Avila | 4 | 0 | 0 | .250 |
| Byron Buxton | 21 | 0 | 1 | .048 |
| Jake Cave | 6 | 0 | 0 | .333 |
| Nelson Cruz | 15 | 1 | 2 | .133 |
| Josh Donaldson | 11 | 2 | 2 | .182 |
| Marwin Gonzalez | 18 | 0 | 2 | .444 |
| Max Kepler | 20 | 1 | 1 | .100 |
| Jorge Polanco | 41 | 2 | 9 | .293 |
| Eddie Rosario | 38 | 1 | 4 | .211 |
| Miguel Sano | 34 | 1 | 2 | .118 |
Twins Try to Solve Tigers Once Again
In three tries, Minnesota has yet to register a win against a team that won just 47 games in 2019 and were pegged to struggle mightily once again this year.
The games have mostly been close this season, with only last Saturday’s 8-2 romp the outlier. That three-game sweep of the Twins was in the midst of Detroit’s season-high six-game winning streak, a run that came to an end with Wednesday’s 8-5 loss in Milwaukee.
Always good to see a few Bombas. #TwinsWin | #MNTwins pic.twitter.com/CE47UvOwvu
— Minnesota Twins (@Twins) September 3, 2020
Friday’s doubleheader is part of a five-game series between the teams, and Minnesota will be hoping to recapture some of the Twins mojo from years past against the Tigers. Coming into 2020, the Twins had won eight of the previous 10 between the teams, in addition to going 37-20 against them over the past three seasons combined.
Pick: Twins -1.5 (+125)
Sports Writer
For the last 20 years, Paul Attfield has worked in sports media. Starting out in his native Britain with the likes of The Independent, he eventually switched continents, with his work appearing in the likes of the Los Angeles Times, Washington Post and Yahoo Sports since.
