Kentucky Derby Odds 2025: Track Favorites to Win at Churchill Downs
By Ian Jones
Updated:
- Track the average odds to win the 2025 Kentucky Derby for the most talked-about horses competing at this year’s Derby
- Journalism (3-1), Sovereignty (5-1), and Sandman (6-1) are the favorites following the post position reveal
- View which trainers and jockeys have had the most success at Churchill Downs
The 151st running of the Kentucky Derby is scheduled to take place at historic Churchill Downs in Louisville on Saturday, May 3, 2025. The post positions have been drawn and the current favorites are Journalism (+300), Sovereignty (+500), and Sandman (+600), respectively running out of posts 8, 18, and 17.
We’re tracking the current Kentucky Derby odds for every fleet-footed thoroughbred since they became available. The main graph on this page has been generated by calculating the average from many of the most trusted horse racing sites.
Kentucky Derby Favorites to Win
2025 Kentucky Derby Odds
Kentucky Derby odds as of May 2nd at TwinSpires.
Notes on the Kentucky Derby odds movement ahead of raceday at Churchill Downs include:
- May 2 – Another horse has been scratched early on Friday: Grande was lifted from the race with a cracked heel despite having clean diagnostic tests this week. This leaves the Kentucky Derby with a field of nineteen after Baeza, the only also-eligible horse, was already moved into the field yesterday.
- May 1 – Bob Baffert’s Rodriguez has been scratched from the derby! Previously getting odds as short as +1100, Rodriguez was found to have a small foot bruise and was pulled out of caution. At +5000, Baeza will now move into the #4 starting position.
- April 29 – Advanced wagering has shaken up the odds table, with horses moving all of the place. American Promise has seen a big jump, shortening from +3000 to +900, swapping places with Burnham Square, who fell from +1200 to +2300.
- April 28 – The 2025 Kentucky Derby field has been announced and Journalism is the horse to beat. Drawing the #8 post, Journalism is getting 3-1 to win the Run for the Roses, currently sitting ahead of Sovereignty (5-1) and Sandman (6-1).
- April 7 – At +500, Journalism leads the way in the final future wager pool before the derby on May 4th, ahead of Bob Baffert’s Citizen Bull (+800) and William I. Mott’s Sovereignty (+900).
- January 20 – Barnes once again topped the futures pool for January, closing at +600, but the biggest jump not much further down the table. Journalism, trained by 2021 Preakness winner Michael W. McCarthy (Rombauer), jumped from +5200 to +2000 in the latest pool.
- December 1 – December’s futures pool for the Kentucky Derby closed with Barnes, trained by the legendary Bob Baffert, as the early favorite at +1300. East Avenue, who topped the November futures pool, slid to +1500.
- November 21 – The first of six 2025 Kentucky Derby Futures odds pools was released at the end of October and it was East Avenue announced as the early favorite. Trained by Brendan P. Walsh, East Avenue opens at +1000 to win.
2025 Kentucky Derby Favorites to Follow
Journalism
Journalism has done nothing but win over the past five months. After a fourth-place finish last October, the Kentucky-born, California-based colt has won four races in a row, including the Santa Anita Derby in early April. To top it off, his lineage is pristine: Journalism was sired by Curlin, who in 2007 won the Preakness, placed second at Belmont, and finished third at the Kentucky Derby.
Sovereignty
When it comes to “sovereignty,” we’re not just talking about King Charles coming to town! Trained by William I. Mott, who won the Kentucky Derby with Country House in 2019, the three-year-old bay colt comes with a pedigree: he was sired by Into Mischief, who boasts six consecutive general sire earning titles from 2019 to 2024. In five races since late 2024, Sovereignty has won twice and placed twice, including a first-place finish at Churchill Downs last October.
Citizen Bull
Like Sovereignty, Citizen Bull has earned his place in every futures wager pool since last October. And also like Sovereignty, the three-year-old bay colt based in Kentucky was sired by Into Mischief. Across six starts in 2024 & 2025, Citizen Bull has four Firsts and one Third. To top it off, he’s trained by the legend Bob Baffert, who’s been reinstated following a three-year suspension from the Derby.
Kentucky Derby Past Winners: Recent 10 to Know About
It ultimately came down to a photo finish, but eventually Mystik Dan was named as the winner of the 150th Kentucky Derby. The lead changed several times throughout the race, but the 17-1 thoroughbred edged out Sierra Leone (9/2) and Forever Young (7/1) for the win. The 2024 Derby offered a record-breaking $5 million purse, with Mystik Dan taking home $3.1 million.
Trainer Kenneth G. McPeek became the first trainer since 1952 to win both the Derby and the Kentucky Oaks on the same weekend, while Brian Hernandez Jr. was the first jockey to perform the feet since 2009. They performed the feat with MYstik Dan in the Derby and Thorpedo Anna in the Oaks.
Most Successful Kentucky Derby Trainers
For a moment Bob Baffert was the winningest trainer of all time with seven wins. But after being stripped of the 2021 Kentucky Derby win, Baffert remains at six wins. That leaves him level with Ben A. Jones, who won his sixth back in 1952 with Hill Gail.
In 2024, it was Kenneth G. Mc Peek who claimed his first Derby win as the trainer of Mage.
Jockeys with the Most Kentucky Derby Wins
Eddie Arcaro and Bill Hartack each lead the way for all-time jockey wins with five each. Following them is Bill Shoemaker who was four wins, last winning in 1986 with Ferdinand.
John Velazquez is right up there in the conversation for best all-time as well. For a moment he too had four wins, however, lost one when Medina Spirit was disqualified in 2021. Instead, Florent Geroux, riding Mandaloun claimed his first jockey win at the Kentucky Derby.
It was another first-time winner in 2024 with Brian Hernandez Jr., riding Mystik Dan in his eleventh appearance at the Kentucky Derby. In 2024, Hernandez also became the ninth jockey, and first since 2009, to win both the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby in the same year.
How to Place Bets on Kentucky Derby?
There are many ways to bet on the Kentucky Derby. From picking a winner to picking the top two or three to a whole host of exotic bets. Here is a breakdown of some of the most popular.
Futures Wagers
Futures wagers in horse racing can be done much like futures bets in any other sport. Get the best odds to win the Kentucky Derby by using your sportsbook of choice to place your bet. You can bet on the Kentucky Derby all throughout the year leading up to the race in May. Odds will fluctuate greatly throughout the year as horses begin to gain Kentucky Derby qualifying points.
Win, Place, Show
There are three main types of bets you can make in the 2022 Kentucky Derby. When you look at who is supposed to win the Kentucky Derby, you’ll probably land on a few of the top contenders. But it may be hard to pick who finishes the race in first place.
Therefore, you have some choices. You can bet on a horse to win (first place), to place (come first or second) or to show (come first, second or third).
You will obviously get better odds for just picking the outright winner. You’ll get shorter odds for making a place or show bet, but you’ll also have a greater chance of winning.
Exacta Bet
When placing an Exacta bet, you are not only betting on who will come first, but also who will come second. You’ll usually get some great long odds on predicting this outcome because you need two outcomes to be correct. You will need your horses to come in the exact order you choose in first and second to win. You can also bet an Exacta Box, for shorter odds, but for your two horses to come in any order in the top two.
Trifecta Bet
The Trifecta bet is much like the Exacta, however, you are instead picking which horses will come in first, second and third and in that exact order. You’ll get great odds for making this prediction correctly as it’s extremely hard to do. Similarily to the Exacta Box, you can bet a Trifecta Box, where your three horses can come in any order in the top three for shorter odds.
2025 Kentucky Derby FAQs
The 2025 Kentucky Derby is on Saturday, May 3, 2025.
Currently, the top favorite is Journalism at +500 odds.
The 2025 Kentucky Derby winning trainer will receive $3.1 million of the total $5 million prize purse.
The 2025 Kentucky Derby winning jockey gets 10% of the winning prize. Trainers get $3.1 million, therefore, the winning jockey receives $310,000. When is the 2025 Kentucky Derby?
Who is the Favorite to Win the 2025 Kentucky Derby?
How Much Does the Kentucky Derby Trainer Win?
How Much Money Does the Jockey Win at the Kentucky Derby?
Archived Kentucky Derby Odds:
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With a background in content marketing, literature, and design, Ian has been bringing a little bit of everything to SBD since 2021. In addition to having penned articles for Eighty-Six Forever, Ian can and will talk your ear off over almost any sport you can think of.
