Today’s MLB Picks, Odds, Probable Pitchers – Cubs vs Mets (June 14)
- The New York Mets are -110 home favorites over the Chicago Cubs on Monday night at Citi Field
- Left-hander David Peterson (1-5, 6.32) will pitch for the Mets against Jake Arrieta (5-6, 4.97)
- A breakdown of Cubs-Mets can be found below with a prediction
The Chicago Cubs will look to keep rolling when they visit the New York Mets at 7:10 p.m. ET Monday in the opener of a four-game series between first-place teams at Citi Field.
The Cubs (38-27) are on a five-game winning streak that has pushed them a season-high 11 games over .500. Chicago, which is 28-13 since April 29, finished a three-game home sweep of the St. Louis Cardinals with a 2-0 win on Sunday night and is tied with the Milwaukee Brewers for the National League Central lead.
The NL East-leading Mets (32-25) lost at home to the San Diego Padres 7-3 on Sunday after winning their previous three games and five of six. Despite the loss, New York has won 11 of its last 13 games at Citi Field and are favored in this game.
Jake Arrieta (5-6, 4.97) will start for the Cubs against left-hander David Peterson (1-5, 6.32).
Cubs vs Mets Odds
Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
---|---|---|---|
Chicago Cubs | -106 | -1.5 (+158) | Over 9 (-115) |
New York Mets | –>-110<— | +1.5 (-192) | Under 9 (-105) |
Odds as of June 14th at FanDuel.
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Arrieta Reverses Downward Trend
Arrieta’s last start was encouraging despite not factoring in the decision last Wednesday against the Padres at San Diego. He allowed only one run and four hits in five innings with six strikeouts and one walk.
Jake Arrieta, Pretty 91mph Two Seamer. 😍 pic.twitter.com/LhI1k1QAnY
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 9, 2021
Arrieta has compiled an 8.28 ERA in his previous six starts with a 2-4 record. Despite the strong outing in San Diego, Arrieta is winless in his last three games, going 0-2 with a 7.59 ERA, and has not pitched more than five innings in any of his last five turns through the rotation.
Out of 12 starts this season, Arrieta has pitched at least six innings four times.
Arrieta has a 7-5 career record against the Mets with a 3.03 ERA in 17 starts ad has won his last three decisions against New York, including April 20 at Chicago when he surrendered only one run in five innings. At Citi Field, he is 2-4 with a 3.83 ERA in seven starts.
The road has not been kind to Arrieta in 2021, though, as he is 3-3 with a 6.40 ERA in seven starts.
Mets Career Stats vs Arrieta
Player | AB | H | HR | RBI | K | AVG |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jonathan Villar | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | .357 |
Francisco Lindor | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | .111 |
Pete Alonso | 21 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | .238 |
Dominic Smith | 16 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | .438 |
James McCann | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .000 |
Billy McKinney | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | .167 |
Kevin Pillar | 15 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2 | .400 |
Luis Guillorme | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
The Mets have scored four or fewer runs in four of their last five games and seven of their last nine. However, they should have right fielder Billy McKinney (sore right knee) and third baseman Jonathan Villar (personal reasons) back in the lineup.
THIS IS ANOTHER @billy_mckinney APPRECIATION POST. 🗣️ pic.twitter.com/QoF6XY3Bmt
— New York Mets (@Mets) June 10, 2021
McKinney missed the last two games and Villar was unavailable Sunday.
McKinney has 10 extra-base hits since being acquired from the Milwaukee Brewers in a May 26 trade. The only player in franchise history to have more extra-base hits in their first 13 games in a Mets’ uniform is Pete Alonso with 12 in 2019.
Villar is hitting .357 in eight games in June.
Shortstop Francisco Lindor is gaining momentum after a slow start following his offseason acquisition from Cleveland.
Francisco Lindor just sent one into the 7 Line Army. A two-run shot to center, his sixth with the Mets.
Mets 2, Padres 0, bottom one. pic.twitter.com/AwuAKP4uum
— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) June 12, 2021
The four-time All-Star is hitting .314 (18 for 55) in his last 14 games with four doubles, one triple, three home runs and six RBIs.
Peterson Getting KO’d Early
The Mets say they are committed to keeping Peterson in the rotation, but it is easy to wonder if his hold on a spot is tenuous. He is 0-2 with a 9.88 ERA in his last four starts and has pitched a total of three innings in his last two outing.
Peterson lasted just 2.2 innings in his most recent start, a loss to the Baltimore Orioles last Tuesday in New York. He gave up four runs on eight hits with four strikeouts and one walk.
David Peterson discusses what's gone wrong for him these past few starts, and manager Luis Rojas explains why the Mets will not make a move to replace him: pic.twitter.com/D7Vu8WFzCB
— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) June 9, 2021
Peterson has gone nine starts since his lone win of the season April 14. He has pitched at least six innings in four of his 11 starts.
His lone career start against the Cubs came April 21 in a loss at Chicago. Peterson was rocked for six runs (three earned) in 3.1 innings as the Cubs rolled to a 16-4 victory.
If Peterson and the bridge relievers can get a lead to closer Edwin Diaz, then the Mets have a good chance to win. Diaz has allowed one earned run in his last 10 games and 10.1 innings for a 0.87 ERA while striking out 15 and walking two.
Cubs Career Stats vs Peterson
Player | AB | H | HR | RBI | K | AVG |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Willson Contreras | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .500 |
Kris Bryant | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .500 |
Anthony Rizzo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 |
Patrick Wisdom | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
Jake Marisnick | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
Ian Happ | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .000 |
Sergio Alcantara | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
Eric Sogard | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
Facing Peterson should be a good matchup for Anthony Rizzo. The Cubs first baseman is batting .377 (20 for 53) against left-handed pitchers this season, the highest average in MLB of any left-handed hitter against southpaws.
ANTHONY RIZZO IS THE HEART & SOUL OF THE CHICAGO CUBS! #EXTENDRIZZO
(📸: @WatchMarquee) pic.twitter.com/Ksct66uCzK
— Cubs Zone ™️ (@CubsZone) June 11, 2021
Shortstop Javier Baez is questionable for Monday’s game. He sat out Sunday for the fourth time in six games with a sore right thumb.
Yesterday’s News
Zach Davies pitched two-hit ball for 6.2 innings and combined with Ryan Tapera and Craig Kimbrel on a shutout in the Cubs’ win Sunday night.
The teams combined for just six hits, four by the Cubs. Rizzo had the game’s only RBI.
That Wrigley Field atmosphere. 🔥#CubTogether pic.twitter.com/Bko8bwGQZz
— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) June 14, 2021
Davies (4-3) struck out six and walked two to win his second straight start. Kimbrel struck out three in the ninth, working around a one-out walk, for his 18th save in 20 chances.
Meanwhile, the Mets lost Sunday when the Padres’ Fernando Tatis Jr. hit a tiebreaking grand slam off Jacob Barnes in the seventh inning and Manny Machado followed with a home run.
[extremely Orson Welles voice] pic.twitter.com/EnO6F9edT3
— San Diego Padres (@Padres) June 13, 2021
Jeurys Familia (2-1) forced in the tying run with a four-pitch, bases-loaded walk to Tommy Pham.
The Cubs swept the Mets in a three-game series from April 20-22 at Chicago in the teams’ first meeting this season and are 32-12 against the Mets since the beginning of the 2014 season.
This one is a tough call as neither Arrieta nor Peterson inspire much confidence presently. Let’s give the lean to the Mets, who are tough at home.
The Pick: Mets (-110)