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Today’s MLB Picks, Odds, Probable Pitchers – Cubs vs Mets (June 14)

John Perrotto

by John Perrotto in MLB Baseball

Updated Jun 14, 2021 · 8:07 AM PDT

Pete Alonso, First Baseman, New York Mets
New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso (20) in the eighth inning of a baseball game Sunday, April 18, 2021, in Denver. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)
  • The New York Mets are -110 home favorites over the Chicago Cubs on Monday night at Citi Field
  • Left-hander David Peterson (1-5, 6.32) will pitch for the Mets against Jake Arrieta (5-6, 4.97)
  • A breakdown of Cubs-Mets can be found below with a prediction

The Chicago Cubs will look to keep rolling when they visit the New York Mets at 7:10 p.m. ET Monday in the opener of a four-game series between first-place teams at Citi Field.

The Cubs (38-27) are on a five-game winning streak that has pushed them a season-high 11 games over .500. Chicago, which is 28-13 since April 29, finished a three-game home sweep of the St. Louis Cardinals with a 2-0 win on Sunday night and is tied with the Milwaukee Brewers for the National League Central lead.

The NL East-leading Mets (32-25) lost at home to the San Diego Padres 7-3 on Sunday after winning their previous three games and five of six. Despite the loss, New York has won 11 of its last 13 games at Citi Field and are favored in this game.

Jake Arrieta (5-6, 4.97) will start for the Cubs against left-hander David Peterson (1-5, 6.32).

Cubs vs Mets Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
Chicago Cubs -106 -1.5 (+158) Over 9 (-115)
New York Mets –>-110<— +1.5 (-192) Under 9 (-105)

Odds as of June 14th at FanDuel.

Arrieta Reverses Downward Trend

Arrieta’s last start was encouraging despite not factoring in the decision last Wednesday against the Padres at San Diego. He allowed only one run and four hits in five innings with six strikeouts and one walk.

Arrieta has compiled an 8.28 ERA in his previous six starts with a 2-4 record. Despite the strong outing in San Diego, Arrieta is winless in his last three games, going 0-2 with a 7.59 ERA, and has not pitched more than five innings in any of his last five turns through the rotation.

Out of 12 starts this season, Arrieta has pitched at least six innings four times.

Arrieta has a 7-5 career record against the Mets with a 3.03 ERA in 17 starts ad has won his last three decisions against New York, including April 20 at Chicago when he surrendered only one run in five innings. At Citi Field, he is 2-4 with a 3.83 ERA in seven starts.

The road has not been kind to Arrieta in 2021, though, as he is 3-3 with a 6.40 ERA in seven starts.

Mets Career Stats vs Arrieta

Player AB H HR RBI K AVG
Jonathan Villar 14 5 0 0 5 .357
Francisco Lindor 9 1 0 1 3 .111
Pete Alonso 21 5 0 1 2 .238
Dominic Smith 16 7 1 1 2 .438
James McCann 4 0 0 0 2 .000
Billy McKinney 6 1 1 2 2 .167
Kevin Pillar 15 6 0 1 2 .400
Luis Guillorme 0 0 0 0 0

The Mets have scored four or fewer runs in four of their last five games and seven of their last nine. However, they should have right fielder Billy McKinney (sore right knee) and third baseman Jonathan Villar (personal reasons) back in the lineup.

McKinney missed the last two games and Villar was unavailable Sunday.

McKinney has 10 extra-base hits since being acquired from the Milwaukee Brewers in a May 26 trade. The only player in franchise history to have more extra-base hits in their first 13 games in a Mets’ uniform is Pete Alonso with 12 in 2019.

Villar is hitting .357 in eight games in June.

Shortstop Francisco Lindor is gaining momentum after a slow start following his offseason acquisition from Cleveland.

The four-time All-Star is hitting .314 (18 for 55) in his last 14 games with four doubles, one triple, three home runs and six RBIs.

Peterson Getting KO’d Early

The Mets say they are committed to keeping Peterson in the rotation, but it is easy to wonder if his hold on a spot is tenuous. He is 0-2 with a 9.88 ERA in his last four starts and has pitched a total of three innings in his last two outing.

Peterson lasted just 2.2 innings in his most recent start, a loss to the Baltimore Orioles last Tuesday in New York. He gave up four runs on eight hits with four strikeouts and one walk.

Peterson has gone nine starts since his lone win of the season April 14. He has pitched at least six innings in four of his 11 starts.

His lone career start against the Cubs came April 21 in a loss at Chicago. Peterson was rocked for six runs (three earned) in 3.1 innings as the Cubs rolled to a 16-4 victory.

If Peterson and the bridge relievers can get a lead to closer Edwin Diaz, then the Mets have a good chance to win. Diaz has allowed one earned run in his last 10 games and 10.1 innings for a 0.87 ERA while striking out 15 and walking two.

Cubs Career Stats vs Peterson

Player AB H HR RBI K AVG
Willson Contreras 2 1 0 0 0 .500
Kris Bryant 2 1 0 0 0 .500
Anthony Rizzo 1 1 0 1 0 1.000
Patrick Wisdom 0 0 0 0 0
Jake Marisnick 1 0 0 0 0 .000
Ian Happ 2 0 0 0 2 .000
Sergio Alcantara 0 0 0 0 0
Eric Sogard 0 0 0 0 0

Facing Peterson should be a good matchup for Anthony Rizzo. The Cubs first baseman is batting .377 (20 for 53) against left-handed pitchers this season, the highest average in MLB of any left-handed hitter against southpaws.

Shortstop Javier Baez is questionable for Monday’s game. He sat out Sunday for the fourth time in six games with a sore right thumb.

Yesterday’s News

Zach Davies pitched two-hit ball for 6.2 innings and combined with Ryan Tapera and Craig Kimbrel on a shutout in the Cubs’ win Sunday night.

The teams combined for just six hits, four by the Cubs. Rizzo had the game’s only RBI.

Davies (4-3) struck out six and walked two to win his second straight start. Kimbrel struck out three in the ninth, working around a one-out walk, for his 18th save in 20 chances.

Meanwhile, the Mets lost Sunday when the Padres’ Fernando Tatis Jr. hit a tiebreaking grand slam off Jacob Barnes in the seventh inning and Manny Machado followed with a home run.

Jeurys Familia (2-1) forced in the tying run with a four-pitch, bases-loaded walk to Tommy Pham.

The Cubs swept the Mets in a three-game series from April 20-22 at Chicago in the teams’ first meeting this season and are 32-12 against the Mets since the beginning of the 2014 season.

This one is a tough call as neither Arrieta nor Peterson inspire much confidence presently. Let’s give the lean to the Mets, who are tough at home.

The Pick: Mets (-110)

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