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Trout Still Odds-On Favorite to Win AL MVP, But JD Martinez is Picking Up Steam

Mike Trout laughing
Mike Trout is the odds-on favorite to win the American League MVP award. Photo by Ian D'Andrea Photography (flickr) [CC License].
  • Mike Trout leads the American League in Wins Above Replacement at 5.9
  • JD Martinez has batted .320 with six home runs, 15 RBI’s and scored 16 runs in the last 30 days
  • Alex Bregman and DJ LeMaheiu could win the award, but they have a lot of catching up to do

Mike Trout is still the heavy favorite to win the American League MVP Award but we’re only halfway through the season. Players like JD Martinez have crept back into the picture and might be a good bet. As we sit at the All-Star break, let’s dive into the AL MVP odds and see what’s the best wager on the board.

Odds to Win 2019 American League MVP Award

Player 2019 AL MVP Odds at BetOnline
Mike Trout -300
DJ LeMahieu +500
Alex Bregman +1000
Jorge Polanco +1200
Joey Gallo +2000
Matt Chapman +2000
Xander Bogaerts +2000
JD Martinez +3300

*Odds taken 07/09/19

Trout En Route to Another MVP Award

Trout, who has won the American League MVP award twice already (2014, 2016) is currently on pace to win it in 2019 too. If we’re looking at WAR – Wins Above Replacement – which is one the key stats when it comes to measuring a player’s value, he has the highest score in the AL (5.9). Matt Chapman (4.3) is a distant second, and Jorge Polanco is third (4.2).

Trout is doing it all as he leads the AL in home runs (28), RBI’s (67) and is second in runs (71). Keep in mind that he’s only had 302 at-bats; Polanco has 356 and Chapman has 339. That gives you an idea of the incredible numbers Trout has produced in less playing time.

Martinez is Hot Right Now

One of the reasons Martinez has shot up the board to go from +10000 to +3300 is because he’s coming off a very strong month of June. In the last 30 days, Martinez has batted .320 with six home runs, 15 RBI’s and scored 16 runs.

The benefit with Martinez is he’s playing on a team that could genuinely make the playoffs. The Angels, meanwhile, are likely to miss out. The MVP award usually goes to the best player on the best team unless someone else has really outshined the rest. The issue for Martinez is Trout has outshined him significantly.

Even as Martinez has played what’s arguably his best stretch of baseball over the last month, Trout has been even better. Over his last 30 days, Trout has batted .306 with 11 home runs, 25 RBI’s and has scored 22 runs. Martinez has a long way to go to get into the MVP conversation.

Can Anyone Else Challenge?

Guys like DJ LeMahieu and Alex Bregman are in the conversation because both of their teams are playoff-bound. However, both players have significant help on their roster and that will take away from their production. We can see that with their WAR, as Bregman is at 4.1 while LeMahieu is at 3.9. That’s a long way away from Trout.

Both are weaker than Trout in certain categories as Bregman has comparable but fewer home runs, runs and RBI’s, but he’s only batting .265. LeMaheiu has a better average (.336) than Trout, but he has just 12 home runs on the year. That’s a significant difference.

What’s the Best Bet?

This is Trout’s award to lose. He’s having an incredible season and is head-and-shoulders better than anyone else right now. If he stumbles in the second half, either Bregman or LeMahieu could catch him, but they’re more likely to taper off than he is. I’d bet Trout claims this award at the end of the year.

Pick: Mike Trout (-300)

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