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Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Props: Over/Unders for MLB’s Top Prospect

Ryan Murphy

by Ryan Murphy in MLB Baseball

Updated Jan 5, 2023 · 7:30 AM PST

Vlad Guerrero Jr.
Toronto has high hopes for rookie Vlad Guerrero Jr. Photo by Tricia Hall (flickr).
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will make his long awaited Major League debut on Friday night as the Blue Jays host the A’s
  • The 20-year-old phenom is still among the favorites to win the AL Rookie of the Year Award despite missing the first month of the season
  • Guerrero has been ranked baseball’s no. 1 prospect by MLB Pipeline for each of the past two seasons 

Can you hear that? It’s the sound of Minor League pitchers breathing a collective sigh of relief now that they’ll no longer face to face Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

The 20-year-old slugger will officially be unleashed on Big League hurlers on Friday evening when he makes his long anticipated debut for the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre.

Oddsmakers have been tracking Guerrero’s development since he first began rocketing up the Minors and have released a series of new props for his rookie season.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Season Debut Props

Let’s begin by examining the odds for Guerrero’s season debut.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Hit Odds

Number of Hits Odds
1+ -400
2+ +175
3+ +650
4+ +1900

Much like his father, Hall of Fame outfielder Vladimir Guerrero, Junior excels at putting the bat on the ball. The Montreal native has hit .331 over parts of four Minor League seasons including a memorable 61-game stretch in Double-A in which he hit .402. His hit parade should continue tonight as he faces struggling right-hander Mike Fiers, who has surrendered 33 hits in 22 innings and is sporting a mile high 8.28 ERA.

We’re betting Guerrero will follow in his father’s footsteps and also have one hit in his Major League debut.

Pick: 1+ (-400)

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Home Run Odds

Number of Home Runs Odds
1+ +400
2+ +2400

118 players have homered in their very first Big League at-bat. Some of them, like Tim Wallach and Will Clark, have gone onto to enjoy illustrious Major League careers, while others found themselves back in the Minors several weeks later. We believe Guerrero will clobber plenty of four-baggers over the next decade, but we don’t expect him to send a ball sailing into the cheap seats tonight. We’re taking a pass on this particular prop.

Pick: Pass  

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Hits + Runs + RBIs Odds

Number of Hits + Runs + RBIs Odds
2+ -208
3+ +122
4+ +206
5+ +411
6+ +808

We’re not expecting a huge offensive explosion from Guerrero in his debut, but 2+ is reasonable given his impressive hitting ability and willingness to take pitches.

Pick: 2+ (-208)

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 2019 Season Props

Will Guerrero continue to inflate the ERAs of opposing pitchers, as many suspect, or will he baseball’s biggest bust since Morganna, the Kissing Bandit? Here’s how online sportsbooks see it playing out.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Regular Season Batting Average

Regular Season Batting Average Odds
Over .292 -125
Under .292 -105

All odds taken 04/26/19.

.292 is a lofty mark for a rookie, but its one that should be well within reach for Guerrero, who hit an eye-popping .381 in four different Minor League stops in 2018. The rugged third baseman continued to tear the hide off the ball in Spring Training this year, where he hit .538 in 13 at-bats before being sidelined with an oblique strain. He has since hit .367 in 33 at-bats with Toronto’s Triple-A affiliate.

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It’s reasonable to wonder how he’ll handle the pressure of being a superstar, but there’s no questioning the fact that Guerrero knows how to handle a bat.

Pick: Over .292 (-125)  

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Regular Season Home Run Total

Regular Season Home Run Total Odds
Over 21.5 -115
Over 21.5 -115

Missing the first month of the season may seem like a major setback, but it didn’t hurt Dodgers first baseman Cody Bellinger or Braves outfielder Ronald Acuña Jr., both of whom won National League Rookie of the Year honors in successive seasons despite making their debuts on April 25th.

Bellinger raked 39 homers in his rookie campaign while Acuña blasted 26. Neither player has Guerrero’s prodigious power, so it’s reasonable to think he’ll easily eclipse 22 dingers.

Pick: Over 21.5 (-115) 

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Regular Season RBI Total

Regular Season RBI Total Odds
Over 75.5 -115
Under 75.5 -115

Guerrero should amass plenty of RBIs from his solo shots, but he’ll ultimately need the help of his teammates to surpass 75 runs batted in. That’s bad news since, unlike Bellinger and Acuña, he isn’t on a playoff-bound team surrounded by talented table setters. The Blue Jays presently rank 26th in on-base percentage and were 22nd in 2018. Justin Smoak led the Jays in RBIs last season with just 77, and no player had more than 67 runs. Those are dismal stats and they’re glaring enough to scare us into taking the under.

Pick: Under 75.5 (-115)

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Rookie of the Year Odds

Will Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Win AL Rookie of the Year Honors? Odds
Yes +300
No -500

Guerrero had the shortest American League Rookie of the Year odds as recently as April 9th, but that was before the emergence of fellow Blue Jays freshman Rowdy Tellez, who is hitting .250 with five home runs and 15 RBIs in 60 at-bats. Rays second baseman Brandon Lowe has also been turning heads with his hot start. The 24-year-old is hitting .291 with six homers and 21 RBI for first-place Tampa Bay.

It’s understandable that Guerrero’s odds have lengthened due to his late debut, but he’s still the best rookie on the board. No other first year player has his combination of raw power and plate discipline, and he should surpass the stats of everyone else in his rookie class by July.

Pick: Yes (+300)

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