Hot Streak Has Mets Just 1.5 Games Out of a Wild Card Spot; World Series Odds Improve in Turn

• The New York Mets just put together a five-game win streak and have taken 27 of their last 37
• The Mets have a 3.08 ERA since the All-Star break, which is the best in baseball
• Their next 22 games are against teams who are .500 or better

The New York Mets continue to play like a team possessed as they’ve arguably been the best in baseball over the second half. Long criticized as a team that needs to break things down and rebuild, the Mets have seen their World Series odds shorten from +3400 down to +2725. Are those odds worth a flier or is this hot spell just a mirage?

Odds to Win 2019 World Series

*Odds taken 08/23/19.

Mets Have Been Red-Hot Since The All-Star Break

Remember the All-Star break and the run-up to the trade deadline? The Mets were mocked for not only failing to trade Noah Syndergaard, Zack Wheeler and others, but also criticized for acquiring another starter in Marcus Stroman. That’s because the Mets were 11 games below .500 on July 12th. Now they’re seven games over.

The Mets have played out of their minds over the last month as they are 27-10 in their last 37 games. That means they’ve won 75% of their games in that stretch after winning just 44% of their first 91 contests. Even so, the Mets still find themselves 1.5 games out of a Wild Card spot. They still have work to do.

Pitching Has Been Incredible

Nobody really doubted the Mets pitching rotation going into the season but many were surprised how poorly they performed in the first half. Opponents batted .260 against Mets pitching (20th) prior to the All-Star break while the team had a gaudy 4.89 ERA (21st).

Then, just like magic, they flipped the switch at the All-Star break and have been incredible. The Mets actually lead the Majors in team ERA (3.08) since the All-Star break and they’re now third in opponent batting average (.232). Their WHIP of 1.38 was 20th prior to the break but their WHIP of 1.18 is third after it.

Mets Have Beat Up On Bad Teams

While the pitching – and the team – are back on track, one red flag among their second-half accomplishments is their caliber of opponent. They’ve played San Francisco, San Diego, two series with Pittsburgh, two series with Miami, the Chicago White Sox and the Kansas City Royals.

The vast majority of their opponents are nowhere near playoff content. Yes, they swept the Cleveland Indians but Cleveland has cooled off. The Mets also lost two of three against the Atlanta Braves.

Their upcoming schedule is going to get very spicy as they have three-game sets with the Atlanta Braves, Chicago Cubs, Philadelphia Phillies, Washington Nationals, Phillies again, Arizona Diamondbacks and Los Angeles Dodgers. That means their next 22 games are against teams who are all .500 or better – most of whom are in playoff position.

As good as the Mets have been of late, they are just 28-37 on the season when facing teams with a winning record. That’s a big concern.

What’s The Best Bet?

The National League is a bit more wide open than the American League but count me out on the Mets and their World Series odds. They’ve had an impressive turnaround but I don’t think they have what it takes to win the World Series.

Even as their pitching has perked up in the second half, their hitting continues to be a bit of a weak spot. They’re 12th in on-base percentage after the break, 12th in OPS, 12th in runs and 16th in home runs. I’m expect those numbers – along with the pitching – to dip as they get into a tough stretch. Add in their awful record against teams above .500 and I’ll pass on the Mets.