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Yankees vs Astros Odds & Picks for Sunday Night Baseball (Sep. 3)

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in MLB Baseball

Updated Sep 3, 2023 · 9:36 AM PDT

New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge rounds the bases
Sep 2, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge (99) rounds the bases after hitting a home run against Houston Astros starting pitcher Hunter Brown (58)(not pictured) in the third inning at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports
  • The New York Yankees look to sweep the Houston Astros on Sunday Night Baseball (Sep. 3)
  • NYY sends reliever Michael King to the mound while HOU counters with the struggling Cristian Javier
  • Below, see the Yankees vs Astros odds and picks for Sunday’s series finale

After dropping the first two of their three-game set with the New York Yankees (67-69, 31-36 away), the Houston Astros (77-60, 35-33 home) hope to right the ship on Sunday Night Baseball tonight behind the arm of Cristian Javier.

Oddsmakers aren’t terribly bullish on Houston at home, setting the Astros as slim -135 favorites.

Yankees vs Astros Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
New York Yankees (King) +115 +1.5 (-175) O 8.5 (-110)
Houston Astros (Javier) -135 -1.5 (+145) U 8.5 (-110)

The Yankees come back as +115 road underdogs, while the total is at just 8.5. First pitch tonight is scheduled for 7:00 pm ET. Game-time temperature is forecast to be a sweltering 96 degrees, forcing the roof closed at Minute Maid Park.

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New York took game one of the series 6-2 on Friday night and followed that up with a 5-4 victory on Saturday. The latest MLB playoff bracket shows Houston hanging onto the second Wild Card on the AL half.  The Astros sit a game up on the Rangers, who hold the final AL slot, and 2.5 up on the Blue Jays, who are the first team out at the moment.

NYY vs HOU Starting Pitchers

The Yankees will be handing the ball to usual-reliever Michael King, who has been thrust into a starting role for parts of the season due to injuries. On the whole, King has been effective in 2023; he has a solid 2.96 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.  He managed his longest outing of the year last time out, pitching four innings of shutout ball against the Tigers. He allowed just three hits and no walks while striking out five.

The Astros counter with 26-year-old righty Cristian Javier who, despite an encouraging 9-2 record, is having a supremely disappointing season. Javier was among the favorites in the preseason Cy Young odds, but is saddled with a 4.66 ERA and 1.31 WHIP heading into Sunday’s contest. The last two and a half months have been a complete disaster, with his ERA rising from 2.90 to 4.66 since June 15.

Houston has won Javier’s last four starts thanks to averaging nine runs of support.

King vs Javier

Michael King
Cristian Javier
3-5 Record 9-2
2.96 ERA 4.66
3.45 xERA 4.86
1.15 WHIP 1.31
3.5 SO/W 2.3

In Sunday’s MLB player props, King is listed with a strikeout over/under of just 3.5 with the over slightly favored (-140o/+105u). Javier’s strikeout total is listed at 5.5 (-145o/+110u) while his total outs sits at 15.5 (+120o/-160u). King’s total outs prop is off the board.

Javier has absolutely eaten up the hitters on the Yankees roster. As a group, they are hitting just .157 against Javier in 51 total at-bats (8-for-51), which includes Aaron Judge going 0-for-9 with five strikeouts. Though it should be noted that three of the eight hits were longballs.

King has been similarly effective against the Houston hitters, who have a .211/.318/.368 slash-line against the Yankee starter.

Yankees vs Astros Pick

The Astros, in general, have been playing high-scoring games of late: 11 of Houston’s last 14 games have gone over 8.5 total runs. Six of those games featured at least 13 runs. While today’s starters have a solid track record against the batters they’ll be facing on Sunday Night Baseball, this total of 8.5 is too low. Javier has given up a minimum of three runs in nine of his last 11 starts and only made it past the fifth inning once. King has been solid, but can’t be expected to last more than a few innings, which is going to further tax a Yankee bullpen that’s accounted for nine innings over the past two days.

Pick: Over 8.5 (-110)


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