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Best Underdog Picks for UFC 240

Long shot of the UFC octagon.
The UFC heads north of the border again for UFC 240 on Edmonton, and several Canadian fighters are intriguing underdogs on the card. Photo by East718 (wikimedia commons) [CC License].
  • UFC 240  goes Saturday, July 27th, at 10 PM ET
  • Can Marc-Andre Barriault rebound? Can former title challenger Alexis Davis reassert herself as a contender?
  • Dylan Bowker picks the best underdogs on the card

UFC 240 emanates from Rogers Place in Edmonton, Alberta, this Saturday (Jul. 27). The card features the long-awaited featherweight title fight between Max Holloway and Frankie Edgar, the return of Cris Cyborg, and so much more.

There are a lot of local combatants that bolster this Canadian card. Some residents of the great fight north are slated as underdogs, who present good betting opportunities. Check out the bout breakdowns and predictions for best underdog bets below.

Barriault vs Jotko Odds

Fighter Odds at BetOnline Odds at Bovada
Marc-Andre Barriault +145 +140
Krzysztof Jotko -170 -170

*Odds taken 07/25/19

Barriault vs Jotko is a fun middleweight bout that will help flesh out the 185-pound hierarchy. Jotko has been a stalwart of the UFC’s middleweight top 15-20 since debuting in late 2013. Meanwhile, Barriault is coming off a loss in his UFC debut after logging an eight-fight win streak.

Jotko won his last bout which broke a three-fight losing streak. Even though Jotko has the edge in octagon experience, I think he will fall to “Power Bar”.

Barriault notches first UFC win

UFC 240 will be a platform to show Marc-Andre Barriault’s true skills. The dual-division TKO champion is an exciting fighter with a lot of finishing power. Octagon jitters can be a thing and I think Barriault will have a much better sophomore showing.

I have Marc-Andre Barriault winning with style points and showing a more authentic representation of who he is as a fighter.

Pick: Barriault (+145)

Davis vs Araujo Odds

Fighter Odds at BetOnline Odds at Bovada
Alexis Davis +175 +175
Viviane Araujo -205 -225

Davis vs Araujo is an example of recency bias. I think Araujo is favored because of her electric UFC debut where she stopped Talita Bernardo.

While the win was impressive, there’s something to be said for Davis’ strength of schedule. Davis has challenged for the bantamweight belt, has faced some huge names in the UFC, and has a lot more octagon experience despite coming off two L’s.

Davis scores a W on home soil

UFC 240 will be a chance for Davis to remind fans who she is. I mean her resume reads like a who’s who of MMA including a finish over someone viewed as the greatest female MMA fighter of all time (Nunes). Also with Liz Carmouche challenging for the flyweight belt next, it creates an interesting possible chance for Davis who beat Carmouche twice.

I have Davis pulling out a scrappy, spirited win at UFC 240.

Pick: Davis (+185)

Aubin-Mercier vs Tsarukyan Odds

Fighter Odds at BetOnline Odds at Bovada
Olivier Aubin-Mercier +165 +165
Arman Tsarukyan -190 -205

Aubin-Mercier vs Tsarukyan is another example of the “what have you done for me lately?” mindset that can inform fighter perception. It’s not that long ago that Aubin-Mercier was notching wins over Anthony Rocco Martin and Evan Dunham. With Mercier coming off two losses, it seems like many are sleeping on him now.

The Canadian Gangster beats Tsarukyan

Tsarukyan is coming off losing his UFC debut to Islam Makhachev. Tsarukyan has multiple choke finishes and striking stoppages to his credit. I just don’t think his skills will be enough for what the Canadian Gangster brings to the cage.

This is Mercier’s first fight of 2019 and I think it will be a statement performance. The Canadian Gangster will get past Tsarukyan in Edmonton, Alberta.

Pick: Aubin-Mercier (+165)

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