- UFC 246 goes down on Saturday, Jan. 18, in Las Vegas, Nevada
- Will Conor McGregor be able to score a knockout win over “Cowboy” Cerrone?
- See the best prop bets below for Notorious‘ return to the Octagon
The Ultimate Fighting Championship starts off the new decade with a bang at UFC 246 where Conor McGregor makes his return to the Octagon as a welterweight against Donald Cerrone. The card also features former champions Holly Holm and Anthony Pettis aiming to return to the win column.
We have already broken down the UFC 246 main-event odds and the best prop bets for the McGregor vs. Cerrone press conference on Wednesday. Now, it is time to look at the three best prop bets for the fight, itself.
Conor McGregor to Win by TKO/KO
All odds taken Jan. 14.
If you believe Conor McGregor will win on Saturday night (as I do), you likely believe he will do so by knockout.
McGregor has 21 career wins and 18 have come by TKO/KO, which is good for 86 percent of his wins. Meanwhile, four of Donald Cerrone’s last six losses have come by TKO/KO, including two at welterweight where many have said he can take a shot.
Cerrone has made it known he wants this to be a fan-friendly fight and will keep it standing, which will be his downfall.
Pick: McGregor to win by (T)KO (-190)
Conor McGregor vs. Donald Cerrone Total Rounds
|Over 1.5 rounds||-120|
|Under 1.5 rounds||+100|
I’ve already stated that I think McGregor will win by knockout, and in my earlier preview, I said it would be early. Although you can get better odds by betting on the fight to end in round one (+170) or round two (+325), it is tough to select the exact round. By betting the under, you get the entire first round and part of the second round and still get it at plus money.
— UFC Canada (@UFC_CA) September 15, 2019
Cerrone is a slow starter and when he gets knocked out, it tends to be early. Against Justin Gaethje and Darren Till, he was stopped in the first round. His loss to Jorge Masvidal came a minute into the second round.
Meanwhile, in McGregor’s 18 stoppage wins, only three have come after the 1.5-round mark, with most happening in the first round (and first minute). Even in his win over Eddie Alvarez – which came in the third minute of round two — he dropped the lightweight champion several times in the first round.
So, following the trend, McGregor will earn an early stoppage.
Pick: Under 1.5 rounds (+100)
Anthony Pettis vs. Diego Ferreira Method of Victory
|Anthony Pettis by KO/TKO/DQ/Submission||+375|
|Anthony Pettis by Decision/Technical Decision||+500|
|Diego Ferreira by KO/TKO/DQ/Submission||+240|
|Diego Ferreira by Decision/Technical Decision||+120|
I’m really high on Diego Ferreira and I believe UFC 246 will be his coming out party, but he will not earn a finish.
Pettis is moving back down to lightweight after going 1-1 at welterweight with a knockout win over Stephen Thompson and a decision loss to Nate Diaz. In this fight, Ferreira will use his cardio and pressure to frustrate the former WEC and UFC champion. Ferreira won’t allow Pettis to get going and, like most of Ferreira’s fights, it will go to decision.
In Ferreira’s last five wins, three have gone to distance, and one finish win was against a short-notice replacement (Kyle Nelson) who gassed after a couple of minutes. Anthony Pettis, meanwhile, is durable and, when he gets finished, it is because of injuries like against Tony Ferguson. “Showtime” will be able to stay healthy the entire fight but fall short on the judge’s scorecards.
Pick: Diego Ferreira by decision/technical decision (+120)
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