- UFC 249 goes down tonight from Jacksonville, Florida
- Tony Ferguson has become a bigger favorite over Justin Gaethje in the main event
- Read below for odds, analysis and a betting prediction
It’s fight day.
The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is back tonight from the VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Florida for a stacked UFC 249 event.
In the main event, the interim lightweight title is on the line as Tony Ferguson looks to become a two-time interim lightweight champ when he battles Justin Gaethje. It’s a phenomenal fight, which many believe could be the Fight of the Year. Yet, over the course of fight week, Ferguson has become a bigger favorite, so who’s the best bet now?
Tony Ferguson vs Justin Gaethje Odds
|Fighter||Monday Odds||Saturday Odds|
*Odds taken May 8
How Has The Line Moved?
When this fight was announced, I thought we’d see the line have Tony Ferguson at a -190 favorite with the comeback on Gaethje at around +155. I thought at that line we would see two-way action, but to my surprise, a lot of money has come in on Ferguson.
The bettors have made Ferguson above a two-to-one favorite, which may surprise some, given Justin Gaethje has legit one-punch knockout power and we’ve seen “El Cucuy” be dropped before. But, Ferguson hasn’t lost in almost nine years so there’s a reason why the public is betting on the former interim lightweight champion.
With the event just hours away I do believe we will see some last-minute action. But, I don’t think Ferguson will become any bigger than the -210 favorite he is right now. He may even come down to under -200 as people will see the plus money on Gaethje and bet heavily on that.
I think when the two step into the Octagon we will see Ferguson at a -195 to -200 favorite just in between what he was on Monday and Saturday.
Who’s The Value On?
This is such an interesting fight, where people are either confident that Gatehje will win or that Ferguson will win. When this fight was made, I set my own lines to see where I think there is value, and I capped Ferguson at -225, as I’m confident he’ll get the job done.
Although -225 was my cap, I think the Monday odds of -180 was a sure-fire bet. Now at -210 you really need to start thinking about it. I think Gaethje’s only path to victory is to finish Ferguson in the first or second round, after that it is El Cucuy’s fight. He has better cardio, a better ground game, and is the better striker, with power the only advantage going to Gaethje.
Even though I think Gaethje could knock Ferguson out, I just don’t see it happening, and at -210 I still think the value is on Ferguson. But, if it hits -220, I wouldn’t recommend a bet, or you are looking at a dog or pass situation.
Pick: Tony Ferguson (-210)
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