Upcoming Match-ups

In Basically Only Sports Betting Event of Weekend, Odds Moving Further In Favor Of Lee Over Oliveira At UFC Brasilia

Cole Shelton

by Cole Shelton in Mixed Martial Arts

Mar 14, 2020 · 6:45 AM PDT

Dana White Contender Series
UFC president Dana White speaks at a news conference in New York. The first of three straight fight nights at Etihad Arena on Abu Dhabi’s Yas Island kicks off Saturday, Jan. 16, when Max Holloway fights Calvin Kattar in a 145-pound bout in the main event of the first combat sports card aired on ABC since 2000. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez, File)
  • UFC Brasilia is a go despite COVID-19 concerns
  • No fans will be in attendance
  • Read below to see how has the line changed in the main event and how you should wager

The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is still happening, despite major promotions like Bellator postponing events. UFC Brasilia goes down today (March 14) with the main card scheduled for 6pm ET.  Kevin Lee is set to take on Charles Oliveira in a catchweight bout after Lee missed weight by 2.5 pounds on Friday.

We’ve already broken down the entire main card and went in-depth on this fight. But, given UFC Brasilia has since become one of the only major sporting events this weekend, more money has started to come in and the main event line has moved quite a bit. On Monday, the line had Lee as a -130 favorite with the comeback on Oliveira at +110. Now, however, more money has come in on the American.

But, with the line moving in favor of Lee, is there still value on the American?

Kevin Lee vs Charles Oliveira Odds

Fighter Odds
Kevin Lee -160
Charles Oliveira +130

*Odds taken March 14

Why is The UFC Still Continuing on With Events?

UFC doesn’t seem as concerned with COVID-19 as the rest of the major sports leagues. With the NHL, NBA, MLB, NCAA, and PGA Tour suspending their seasons, the UFC continues to hold shows. Some will be behind closed doors, others will be at the UFC’s facility in Las Vegas, where no/limited fans will be allowed in.

Regardless, the show must go on for the UFC, and it has now become one of the only sporting events on this weekend with ESPN also deciding to put it on main ESPN instead of their ESPN+ streaming service.

Why Has The Line Moved?

All sportsbooks have seen the money come in on Lee making him a noticeable favorite.

When this fight was announced, I figured the line would be around -120 to -130 for Lee as it is around a pick’em fight with a slight lean for the American. The “Motown Phenom” is the better striker and could keep this fight standing which is why I liked him. I also don’t think him missing weight will be a hindrance to the American, and bettors don’t either.

Lee has proven he has the cardio to go five rounds as well, and with no fans in attendance, Oliveira no longer has the hostile crowd cheering him on.

Is There Still Value On Lee?

I still like Kevin Lee to win this fight, but I think at these current odds, it is a dog or pass situation. This is a close fight, where if Oliveira can get that one takedown he can show why he has the most submission wins in UFC history. I said if this line got past the -145 to -150 mark, the value was on Charles Oliveira.

But, there still are unique ways to lay money on Kevin Lee and see a better return on your investment. On Friday we laid out the five best props for the card where we like Lee to win by KO/TKO, but you can also look at the fight ending inside the distance as an Oliveira win will most likely be by submission.

Although straight up at -160 I don’t love the line on Lee, I still favor him to win, but right now, bettors may be looking at a dog or pass situation, unless they want to get unique with their bets doing props or parlays.

Author Image