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The 5 Best UFC Brasilia Props to Bet

Cole Shelton

by Cole Shelton in Mixed Martial Arts

Mar 13, 2020 · 5:23 PM PDT

Former UFC bantamweight champion Jose Aldo
Jose Aldo has opened as a dog to Petr Yan at UFC 251. Which way will the line move? Photo by Andrius Petrucenia (Flickr).
  • UFC Brasilia takes place Saturday (March 14, 3 pm ET) behind closed doors
  • Kevin Lee takes on Charles Oliveira in the main event
  • See the five best prop bets for the card below

UFC will still be holding their card this Saturday (March 14, 3 pm ET) in Brasilia, Brazil, but there will be no fans in attendance. Dana White has made it clear the plan is to continue to have UFC events, despite the biggest North American sports leagues suspending operations due to the concerns surrounding COVID-19.

The event has also been moved up to start two hours early and will air on ESPN.

We’ve already broken down the main card and now it is time to look at the best props available for the event.

1) Lee Knocks Out Oliveira

Outcome Odds
Kevin Lee wins by KO/TKO +200
Kevin Lee wins by submission +500
Kevin Lee wins by decision +475
Charles Oliveira wins by KO/TKO +650
Charles Oliveira wins by submission +250
Charles Oliveira wins by decision +700
Fight ends in a draw +5000

*All odds taken March 13th.

Although Kevin Lee missed weight, which is a concern to some it is not a concern for me. Fighters who missed weight are 3-0 in 2020 and on a five-fight winning streak dating back to 2019. So, this only strengthens my belief that Lee gets it done. Lee has shown he has serious ground and pound and will be able to knock out Oliveira in the later rounds.

Pick: Kevin Lee wins by KO/TKO (+200)

2) Gilbert Burns Wins By Decision

Outcome Odds
Gilbert Burns by TKO/KO +450
Gilbert Burns wins by submission +550
Gilbert Burns  wins by decision +155
Demian Maia wins by KO/TKO +1400
Demian Maia wins by submission +700
Demian Maia wins by decision +250
Fight ends in a draw +5000

Gilbert Burns and Demian Maia seems likely to hit the scorecards. But, given those odds of -185 the fight goes the distance, I think taking Burns by decision at plus money is the play.

I like Burns to win this fight, but he has gotten to a -188 favorite. In Burns’ two fights at welterweight, they went the distance and Maia has only ever been finished once and even went the distance with Tyron Woodley and Anderson Silva over five rounds. I don’t think either will be able to submit or knock each other out. So, Burns by decision at +155 is a prop bet that presents a ton of value.

Pick: Gilbert Burns wins by decision (+155)

3) Moicano & Hadzovic Goes to the Scorecards

Fight Goes the Distance Odds
Yes -130
No +110

Although Renato Moicano has been knocked out in his past two fights, that was at featherweight where he was cutting a lot of weight. He is now moving up to lightweight where his chin should be better. Hazdovic is someone who doesn’t have a ton of knockout power and I also believe Moicano will be able to piece up Hazdovic to earn a decision win. But, there is a chance Hazdovic wins so just taking the fight goes to decision is a better bet.

Pick: Yes (-130)

4) Francisco Trinaldo Edges Out a Decision

Outcome Odds
Francisco Trinaldo by TKO/KO +360
Francisco Trinaldo wins by submission +600
Francisco Trinaldo  wins by decision +500
John Makdessi wins by KO/TKO +700
John Makdessi wins by submission +2500
John Makdessi wins by decision +210
Fight ends in a draw +5000

Francisco Trinaldo has gone to the scorecards in his past two fights, while also going the distance in four of his past five fights. Makdessi, meanwhile, has gone to the decision in his past three scraps and four of his past five, like Trinaldo.

Trinaldo is the better striker and grappler and will be able to outpoint Makdessi for three rounds and earn a decision win.

Pick: Francisco Trinaldo by decision (+500)

5) Walker-Krylov Ends by Stoppage

Fight Goes the Distance Odds
Yes +425
No -500

The odds may seem high but to me, this fight has roughly a 99.9% chance to end by stoppage. Nikita Krylov has 32 professional fights and only once has he gone to the scorecards. Walker, meanwhile, has 21 total fights and only one has gone to the scorecards.

Both Walker and Krylov have a ton of knockout power and we’ve seen in the past both have been knocked out. I wouldn’t even be surprised if this ends inside the first round.

Pick: No (-500)

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