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Opening Odds for Ferguson vs Khabib Favor Nurmagomedov

Can Khabib keep it rolling in his next fight against Tony Ferguson? Photo from @EngrJu (Twitter)
  • Khabib Nurmagomedov has said Tony Ferguson is next
  • Both on 12-fight winning streaks in the UFC
  • See the opening odds here

After Khabib Nurmagomedov successfully defended his lightweight title for a second time at UFC 242, all signs pointed to Tony Ferguson as his next opponent. Ferguson is on a 12-fight winning streak which includes huge wins over Donald Cerrone, Anthony Pettis, and Kevin Lee, where he won the interim title.

Although the two have been booked to fight each other four times before, the time is now for the fight to be booked.

Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Tony Ferguson Odds

Fighter Odds
Khabib Nurmagomedov -235
Tony Ferguson +200

*All Odds Taken 09/10/19

Will The Odds Change?

I suspect the odds to change for this fight and am surprised how high they are in Nurmagomedov’s favor right now. Khabib is no doubt one of the best fighters of all-time and is 28-0 for a reason. He has only lost one round in his entire MMA career, and that was the third round to Conor McGregor.

However, Tony Ferguson is the exact kryptonite for Nurmagomedov. He likes being on his back and using his jiu-jitsu to submit his opponents or use it to get up, which is where Dustin Poirier had success in the fight as he almost had a guillotine choke. Although Nurmagomedov should be favored, as it is hard to pick against him, I think the odds should be closer to -170 for the Russian champion and +150 for Ferguson.

There is no question Tony Ferguson is the harder fight for Khabib Nurmagomedov than Conor McGregor, but the Irishman had such a large fanbase that a ton of public money came in on him. I don’t think that will be the case for Ferguson.

Who Has The Early Value?

Right now, Tony Ferguson has all the value at +200. He is on a 12-fight winning streak in the hardest division in the UFC and has looked impressive doing so.

He has all the skills to be the one to hand Nurmagomedov his first loss and truthfully, I view this is a pick’em fight.

Stylistically, Ferguson could be a problem for Khabib. He throws elbows and knees, which will be a problem if the Russian shoots in for a takedown. He also has shown good takedown defense and jiu-jitsu off his back.

This fight is the one to make, and I suspect it does indeed happen for early 2020. But, as of right now, all the value is on Tony Ferguson at +200.

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