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UFC 274 Picks & Predictions for All Prop Bets

Cole Shelton

by Cole Shelton in Mixed Martial Arts News

Updated May 6, 2022 · 6:25 AM PDT

Chandler kicks Gaethje
Nov 6, 2021; New York, NY, USA; Justin Gaethje (red gloves) competes against Michael Chandler (blue gloves) during UFC 268 at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Ed Mulholland-USA TODAY Sports
  • A stacked UFC 274 card goes down on May 7 in Phoenix, Arizona
  • Charles Oliveira and Justin Gaethje are finishers so do we see a finish in the main event?
  • Let’s take a look at a full UFC 274 betting preview, along with our best prop bets

The UFC heads back to Phoenix, Arizona for a stacked UFC 274 card that sees two titles on the line. In the main event, lightweight champion Charles Oliveira looks to defend his title for the second time as he battles arguably the most violent man in MMA in Justin Gaethje.

The co-main event sees Rose Namajunas defending her strawweight title in a rematch against Carla Esparza. UFC 274 props are available at DraftKings, and more online sportsbooks, with a few UFC 274 picks offering great value.

We’ve already broken down the UFC 274 odds and found value on some fighters. That being said, let’s dive deeper into a UFC 274 betting preview where we look at our best UFC prop bets for the card.

UFC 274 Picks for Props – Total Rounds Odds

Matchup Total Rounds Over Odds Under Odds
Oliveira vs Gaethje 2.5 +120 (FanDuel) -152 (FanDuel)
Namajunas vs Esparza 4.5 -175 +145
Chandler vs Ferguson 1.5 -170 +140
Rua vs Saint Preux 1.5 -155 +125
Cerrone vs Lauzon 2.5 +160 -200

*All odds as of May 5


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Oliveira vs Gaethje Under 2.5 Rounds

Charles Oliveira and Justin Gaethje are proven finishers and you shouldn’t expect anything different here as the under 2.5 rounds presents value here.

In Gaethje’s six UFC wins, four have been under 2.5 rounds with three of them being by first-round KO.  For Gaethje to win this fight he will need to put Oliveira away early, in the first or second round or he will get submitted. He had a similar path to victory against Khabib Nurmagomedov – but was submitted in the second round.

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Oliveira, meanwhile, has never seen the championship rounds in his career and has gone under 2.5 rounds in 16 of his last 17 fights as he either gets finished early by a knockout or gets the stoppage win in the first or second. The Brazilian was hurt badly against Poirier and Chandler and if Gaethje lands those shots, it seems likely the fight would be over. But, Gaethje’s submission defense is not the best so once the Brazilian gets him to the ground he will lock in the submission.

Rather than pick a side in the main event, take the under 2.5 rounds and root for violence.

  • Pick: Oliveira-Gaethje under 2.5 rounds (-152)

UFC 274 Props – To Go the Distance Odds

Matchup Yes Odds No Odds
Oliveira vs Gaethje +330 -500
Namajunas vs Esparza -175 +130
Chandler vs Ferguson +150 -200
Rua vs Saint Preux +165 -225
Cerrone vs Lauzon +165 -225

Namajunas-Esparza Goes the Distance

Rose Namajunas vs. Carla Esparza seems destined to go the distance as the champ in Namajunas will need to be patient against Esparza and not force anything as the challenger has great wrestling.

Esparza has a grinding style as she will look to push Namajunas against the fence and take her down and hold her there to get the win. In Esparza’s last 10 fights she has gone the distance in eight of them, while Namajunas has a few more finishes, styles make fights and Esparza is as durable as they come. The title challenger has only been finished twice since 2015 and has fought some tough women during that stretch.

This may not be the most exciting fight as it seems to be more of a grinding fight so take this one to go the distance as it should be over -200 in my opinion.

  • Pick: Namajunas-Esparza goes the distance (-175)

UFC 274 Picks – Method of Victory Odds

Result KO/TKO/DQ Odds Submission Odds Decision Odds
Oliveira beats Gaethje +650 +120 +550
Gaethje beats Oliveira +200 +2800 +1000
Namajunas vs Esparza +300 +550 +140
Esparza vs Namajunas +1200 +1200 +275
Chandler beats Ferguson -110 +800 +240
Ferguson beats Chandler +900 +1400 +650
Rua beat Saint Preux +450 +1600 +500
Saint Preux beats Rua +225 +250 +330
Cerrone beats Lauzon +180 +450 +350
Lauzon beats Cerrone +450 +650 +450

Chandler Wins By Decision

Michael Chandler is favored to knockout Tony Ferguson but I think he gets it done by decision which is the best way to go about betting this fight.

Chandler is a -380 favorite to win the fight so to get him at +240 is really good value. Although the former Bellator lightweight champion is considered to be a finisher, Tony Ferguson is as durable as they come. Ferguson has lost three in a row but went the distance with Charles Oliveira and Beneil Dariush while was finished in the fifth round against Justin Gaethje. This is also a crucial fight for Chandler to win to get back into the title contention so he will be more worried about getting the win which is why I like him to win by decision.

Another prop to take a look at is Joe Lauzon by KO/TKO at +450. If Lauzon wins it will be by catching Cerrone early so at +450 it’s worth a stab.

  • Pick: Michael Chandler wins by decision (+240)
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