UFC Baku Odds & Predictions: Hill vs Rountree Main Card Picks

• UFC makes history with its first-ever event in Baku, Azerbaijan on Saturday, June 21st
• Former light heavyweight champion Jamahal Hill takes on Khalil Rountree Jr. in the main event
• Check out the UFC Baku odds and predictions below

The UFC touches down in Azerbaijan for the first time as former light heavyweight champion Jamahal Hill looks to get back on track against Khalil Rountree Jr. in Saturday’s main event. The card also features Rafael Fiziev’s return against surging lightweight Ignacio Bahamondes in what promises to be a striking showcase at the Baku Crystal Hall.

Catch the action on ESPN+ with the early prelims starting at 9 am ET. Here are the UFC Baku odds and my predictions for the biggest fights.

UFC Baku Odds

The early UFC Baku odds have Hill and Rountree Jr. dead even at -110 in a true pick’em fight. The co-main event sees Rafael Fiziev as a slight +110 underdog against Ignacio Bahamondes at -130.

Odds as of June 17th, at DraftKings Sportsbook. Grab a DraftKings promo code for all your UFC betting needs.

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Hill vs Rountree Jr. Prediction

Jamahal Hill returns to action looking to bounce back from consecutive knockout losses to Alex Pereira and Jiri Prochazka. The former champion opened as a -205 favorite for this fight, but money has poured in on Rountree, moving the line to a coin flip.

Here’s the thing: those betting against Hill are overreacting. Yes, he’s been knocked out twice, but look at who did it. Pereira and Prochazka are elite strikers with unusual styles that gave Hill fits. Rountree is powerful but predictable, the kind of fighter Hill has handled before.

The numbers tell the story. Hill has a three-inch height advantage and a massive five-inch reach edge. He lands over three significant strikes more than he absorbs per minute – that’s elite-level defense and offense combined. Meanwhile, Rountree eats more shots than he dishes out, sporting a negative strike differential.

Rountree’s aggressive, forward-pressing style plays right into Hill’s hands. “Sweet Dreams” is a master counter-puncher who excels when opponents come to him. If Rountree rushes in like he did against Pereira, Hill will pick him apart from the outside and likely find the knockout late.

Don’t let recency bias fool you. Hill getting knocked out by two of the best strikers on the planet doesn’t mean he’ll lose to everyone. At even money, he’s the smart play.

• Hill vs Rountree Jr. Early Pick: Jamahal Hill ML -110

Fiziev vs Bahamondes Prediction

Talk about value – Rafael Fiziev opened as a -205 favorite but now sits at +110 against Ignacio Bahamondes. The betting public has gone crazy for the Chilean’s recent finishing streak, but they’re missing the massive gulf in competition.

Fiziev went toe-to-toe with Justin Gaethje, one of the most violent strikers in MMA, and nearly won. He’s knocked out Brad Riddell and Rafael dos Anjos, who are legit top-10 fighters. Bahamondes? His best win is a submission over Jalin Turner, who isn’t known for his ground game.

At 6’3″, Bahamondes has reach, but he’s shown vulnerability when shorter, more powerful strikers close the distance. That’s exactly Fiziev’s game. The Kazakhstani has elite footwork, phenomenal head movement, and Muay Thai that’ll make your head spin. His 90% takedown defense means Bahamondes won’t be able to fall back on wrestling when the striking gets tough.

Fiziev by decision is the play, but at plus money on the moneyline? That’s a gift.

• Fiziev vs Bahamondes Early Pick: Rafael Fiziev ML +110

Other UFC Baku Predictions

Curtis Blaydes vs Rizvan Kuniev:

Kuniev’s making his UFC debut after popping for four different banned substances. Notice how his physique has changed? Blaydes is 4-0 after losses and knows how to bounce back. The Russian’s low-volume striking and clinch-heavy style won’t work against a bigger, stronger wrestler.

• Pick: Blaydes by KO/TKO +125

Myktybek Orolbai vs Tofiq Musayev:

Musayev is 35 and making his UFC debut after a long layoff. Orolbai is a relentless pressure fighter who averages over seven takedowns per fight. The former RIZIN champ has dangerous striking early, but Orolbai’s pace and wrestling will wear him down. Expect a submission once Musayev gasses.

• Pick: Orolbai by submission +350

Nazim Sadykhov vs Nikolas Motta:

Fighting at home in Azerbaijan, Sadykhov should get any close rounds from the judges. While the -470 price is insane, he’s the cleaner striker with better fundamentals. Motta is wild and explosive but leaves himself open. Skip the moneyline and look at fight goes the distance.

• Pick: Fight goes the distance -120